3 ms·
A great irony here is that Kalshi and media generally are competitors. When I make important decisions (e.g. understanding politics, where to travel and setup c
by nomilk 28d ago
A great irony here is that Kalshi and media generally are competitors. When I make important decisions (e.g. understanding politics, where to travel and setup companies), I always value betting markets over hearsay (aka media). The former has real money at stake, whereas the latter often has no skin in the game (as well as a other issues; like herd mentality, sensationalism, incentive to tell people what they want to hear rather than what's true).
- cft 28d agoPrediction markets as a news source are politically unbiased and nonpartisan , and this is what the establishment people here don't like.
- freejazz 28d agoThey are partisan. It's just whoever decides to make the bets. Like the 2022 election situation was just one big whale. There's just nothing about it that makes it inherently non-partisan.
- nomilk 28d agoA partisan bet makes the opposite position slightly more profitable, attracting bets which equilibrate the market back at fair prices (i.e. realistic probabilities)
- freejazz 28d agoYeah but they markets don't equilibrate. Again, the 2022 election pool just reflected the thought of a big whale.
- nomilk 28d agoA whale just means the market gets more mis-priced, creating greater incentive for correction, which typically occurs. Let's for a moment say you're right, and prediction markets do have a flaw (that if someone wants to spend a lot of money making an outcome look more/less likely), that's an imperfection vs the many biases in other information sources. tl;dr prediction markets financially penalise providing misleading information, whereas traditional media profit from misleading information
- freejazz 24d agoStill waiting for anyone to point to any good done by prediction markets