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> We have people telling us the next recession being imminent all the time. Yeah uhm so I'm not sure if you've like seen the world recently, but uh. Yea

by hypfer 1mo ago

gryfft 1mo ago
I believe the saying goes: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- hajile 1mo ago
  The markets may not be claiming a recession, but the real world certainly is.
  - jongjong 1mo ago
    I feel like I've been in a recession economy since the day I entered the workforce 14 years ago. The movement of the stock market has had no effect on my reality. It's like two different universes inhabited by two different sets of people. IMO, all the narratives we were exposed to around privilege before and after COVID were a cover up of this fact that we have a two-class system which is explicitly creating this condition. The issue is at the system design level and goes far beyond "technology putting people out of a job". The privilege narrative was classic communist-style "accuse your enemy of what you're doing yourself." It was literally the privileged few preemptively accusing the unprivileged masses of being unfairly privileged in order to take control that narrative before it was used on them.
thegrim33 1mo ago
S&P 500 - All time high DJIA - All time high Unemployment rate - Near all time low (for last 20 years) Number of US small businesses - All time high US GDP - All time high [Sources] https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une... https://www.sellerscommerce.com/blog/small-business-statistics/ https://www.sellerscommerce.com/blog/small-business-statisti... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
- sfblah 1mo ago
  How well I remember people pointing to the scoreboard in early 2008...
  - BeetleB 1mo ago
    How well I remember someone predicting 7 of the last 2 recessions... Yes, one day, we'll have a recession. It doesn't mean the doom prophets were correct.
    - sfblah 1mo ago
      Agreed, but look at it the other way. Do you really think we'll never again have a recession? Some people genuinely believe that.
      - JumpCrisscross 1mo ago
        > Some people genuinely believe that Sure. They’re in the same category of wrongness as Zitron. If someone said they follow the newsletter of a guy who claims we’ll never have a recession again, I’d quietly note that.
- hypfer 1mo ago
  I mean I wish you a lot of fun playing this discussion game online, but I kinda fail to see the point of it. Someone could now of course say "hey, but are your sure that these are really the metrics we should be looking at?", which could then be countered with a "well of course! This is how one measures a recession, no?" And that could go on forever, achieving absolutely nothing.
- toomuchtodo 1mo ago
  Bloomberg: It Won’t Take Much to Burst the Stock Market Bubble - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-08-20/us-stock-market-bubble-ai-boom-won-t-prevent-a-sharp-correction https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-08-20/us-sto... | https://archive.today/O9sQE https://archive.today/O9sQE - August 20th, 2026 > First, the favorable impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom on economic activity and earnings will likely diminish significantly in 2027. That’s because what’s relevant for growth is how much investment is increasing, not its level. The increase in investment in 2026 will almost certainly be the peak. There aren’t sufficient resources — construction workers, electrical generation capacity, or chip manufacturing capacity - to increase investment by the same magnitude in 2027. Nor are the dominant hyperscalers likely to have the free cash flow and balance sheet capacity to sustain a bigger increase in investment in 2027 compared with 2026. > Second, as the growth of investment spending slows, the growth in earnings of hyperscaler suppliers will falter, profit expectations will diminish and price-earnings ratios will shrink. The “picks and shovels” providers will suffer a double whammy - slower demand growth and profit margin compression. On the way up, higher demand leads to wider profit margins that sustain equity market valuations. On the way down, the outlook for earnings deteriorates quickly as the shortfall of demand relative to expectations is exacerbated by a collapse in profit margins. > Third, as the investment cycle matures, the focus will shift to the returns that the hyperscalers are expected to earn on their massive investments. I suspect it will be difficult for the AI hyperscalers to generate sufficient revenue ($2 trillion or more per year) to generate the returns needed to justify an AI capital base that is likely to reach $5 trillion. (I'd encourage you to read the entire piece, it was written by Bill Dudley, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and is too much to quote in its entirety) Nearly 25% of U.S. workers are functionally unemployed, economic analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49403381 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49403381 - August 2026 (7 comments) 42% of adults rely on their parents for financial support - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 - July 2026 (274 comments) 49% of young adults live at home, up 12 points since 2019. An economist says the fallout will reshape marriage, kids, and home-buying - https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-financial-support-parents/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-f... | https://archive.today/1uB8d https://archive.today/1uB8d - July 9th, 2026 (Federal Reserve survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2025-executive-summary.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-we...) The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 - November 2025 (4 comments) Why millennials feel hopeless about the economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 - November 2025 (15 comments) Most Americans don't earn enough to afford basic costs of living, analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 - May 2025 (9 comments) [Report: https://www.lisep.org/mql https://www.lisep.org/mql] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statist...
Helloworldboy 1mo ago
[dead]

> We have people telling us the next recession being imminent all the time. Yeah uhm so I'm not sure if you've like seen the world recently, but uh. Yea

by hypfer 1mo ago

> We have people telling us the next recession being imminent all the time. Yeah uhm so I'm not sure if you've like seen the world recently, but uh. Yea

gryfft 1mo ago

I believe the saying goes: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

hajile 1mo ago
The markets may not be claiming a recession, but the real world certainly is.
- jongjong 1mo ago
  I feel like I've been in a recession economy since the day I entered the workforce 14 years ago. The movement of the stock market has had no effect on my reality. It's like two different universes inhabited by two different sets of people. IMO, all the narratives we were exposed to around privilege before and after COVID were a cover up of this fact that we have a two-class system which is explicitly creating this condition. The issue is at the system design level and goes far beyond "technology putting people out of a job". The privilege narrative was classic communist-style "accuse your enemy of what you're doing yourself." It was literally the privileged few preemptively accusing the unprivileged masses of being unfairly privileged in order to take control that narrative before it was used on them.

thegrim33 1mo ago

S&P 500 - All time high DJIA - All time high Unemployment rate - Near all time low (for last 20 years) Number of US small businesses - All time high US GDP - All time high [Sources] https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une... https://www.sellerscommerce.com/blog/small-business-statistics/ https://www.sellerscommerce.com/blog/small-business-statisti... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

sfblah 1mo ago
How well I remember people pointing to the scoreboard in early 2008...
- BeetleB 1mo ago
  How well I remember someone predicting 7 of the last 2 recessions... Yes, one day, we'll have a recession. It doesn't mean the doom prophets were correct.
  - sfblah 1mo ago
    Agreed, but look at it the other way. Do you really think we'll never again have a recession? Some people genuinely believe that.
    - JumpCrisscross 1mo ago
      > Some people genuinely believe that Sure. They’re in the same category of wrongness as Zitron. If someone said they follow the newsletter of a guy who claims we’ll never have a recession again, I’d quietly note that.
hypfer 1mo ago
I mean I wish you a lot of fun playing this discussion game online, but I kinda fail to see the point of it. Someone could now of course say "hey, but are your sure that these are really the metrics we should be looking at?", which could then be countered with a "well of course! This is how one measures a recession, no?" And that could go on forever, achieving absolutely nothing.
toomuchtodo 1mo ago
Bloomberg: It Won’t Take Much to Burst the Stock Market Bubble - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-08-20/us-stock-market-bubble-ai-boom-won-t-prevent-a-sharp-correction https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-08-20/us-sto... | https://archive.today/O9sQE https://archive.today/O9sQE - August 20th, 2026 > First, the favorable impact of the artificial intelligence investment boom on economic activity and earnings will likely diminish significantly in 2027. That’s because what’s relevant for growth is how much investment is increasing, not its level. The increase in investment in 2026 will almost certainly be the peak. There aren’t sufficient resources — construction workers, electrical generation capacity, or chip manufacturing capacity - to increase investment by the same magnitude in 2027. Nor are the dominant hyperscalers likely to have the free cash flow and balance sheet capacity to sustain a bigger increase in investment in 2027 compared with 2026. > Second, as the growth of investment spending slows, the growth in earnings of hyperscaler suppliers will falter, profit expectations will diminish and price-earnings ratios will shrink. The “picks and shovels” providers will suffer a double whammy - slower demand growth and profit margin compression. On the way up, higher demand leads to wider profit margins that sustain equity market valuations. On the way down, the outlook for earnings deteriorates quickly as the shortfall of demand relative to expectations is exacerbated by a collapse in profit margins. > Third, as the investment cycle matures, the focus will shift to the returns that the hyperscalers are expected to earn on their massive investments. I suspect it will be difficult for the AI hyperscalers to generate sufficient revenue ($2 trillion or more per year) to generate the returns needed to justify an AI capital base that is likely to reach $5 trillion. (I'd encourage you to read the entire piece, it was written by Bill Dudley, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and is too much to quote in its entirety) Nearly 25% of U.S. workers are functionally unemployed, economic analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49403381 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49403381 - August 2026 (7 comments) 42% of adults rely on their parents for financial support - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48937288 - July 2026 (274 comments) 49% of young adults live at home, up 12 points since 2019. An economist says the fallout will reshape marriage, kids, and home-buying - https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-financial-support-parents/ https://fortune.com/2026/07/09/half-young-adults-live-home-f... | https://archive.today/1uB8d https://archive.today/1uB8d - July 9th, 2026 (Federal Reserve survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2025-executive-summary.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2026-economic-we...) The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 - November 2025 (4 comments) Why millennials feel hopeless about the economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 - November 2025 (15 comments) Most Americans don't earn enough to afford basic costs of living, analysis finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44119317 - May 2025 (9 comments) [Report: https://www.lisep.org/mql https://www.lisep.org/mql] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statist...

Helloworldboy 1mo ago

[dead]