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I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. Already then yo

I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. Already then you could find this exact article title in a dozen publications per year, especially in academic publications. Al Gore made a third career out of it. It was alarmist and too soon then but it’s not alarmist and too soon now? Nobody upvotes an article titled “Things are about 0.5% more concerning than they were two decades ago”

JV00 2mo ago
Take a walk up the alps, compare to pictures from 20 years ago and see for yourself
metabagel 2mo ago
> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. I don't doubt that is your recollection, but nobody back then was predicting it would happen in 20 years. The time frames given were much longer. But, the vibe was definitely that we need to wake up and do something right now, because by the time climate change hits real hard it will be too late to avert the calamity.
- unsupp0rted 2mo ago
  In 1992 Al Gore’s book said 60% of the population of Florida will have to relocate due to flooding. He didn’t mean in 100 years.
  - ceejayoz 2mo ago
    The actual quote is a little more circumspect than you portray it to be. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/al-gores-long-and-persistent-record-of-miserable-failure-8ebbeaca https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/al-gores-long-an... > The then-senator claimed that “according to some predictions”—no specifics were offered—“in the next few decades,” “up to 60 percent of the present population of Florida may have to be relocated.” It's possible to be right on the substance and wrong on the timing. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry 's investor revolt. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/floridas-private-home-insurance-market-124000361.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/floridas-private-home-insuran... > Active private home insurance policies in Florida declined by 78% over roughly a decade, with the state's insurer of last resort skyrocketing to 63% of the market share, as reported by PRNewswire and republished on Yahoo. That is a dramatic pullback in a state where storm risk has long shaped the housing market.
    - BarnabyQJones 2mo ago
      [flagged]
- anonymousiam 2mo ago
  Some were predicting it, and those predictions got a lot of publicity. https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2019/09/20/nolte-climate-experts-are-0-41-with-their-doomsday-predictions/ https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2019/09/20/nolte-clima...
Marsymars 2mo ago
> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. This doesn't seem plausible - the worst-case predictions for sea level rise by the end of the century are around 2m. That would certainly be bad for Florida, but like 80% of the population lives higher than 2m above sea level, so it certainly wouldn't be unliveable.
- jay_kyburz 2mo ago
  A beautiful island archipelago with heaps of cool snorkeling in the ruins just below the surface.
- ceejayoz 2mo ago
  I'd note that "under water" isn't the only issue at hand. Florida's homeowners insurance industry has largely collapsed in recent years. Rising sea levels can impact fresh water supplies (https://www.wusf.org/weather/2024-11-27/trillion-dollar-hidden-threat-climate-change-rising-groundwater-florida https://www.wusf.org/weather/2024-11-27/trillion-dollar-hidd...). > Up to 70% of residents between North Carolina and Florida, and a trillion dollars in property, could be impacted by the end of the century with just over three feet of sea rise. South Florida represents the vast majority of that risk, with about 7.5 million people and $750 billion dollars in property expected to face increasing risks as groundwaters rise, the study found. Power failures get scarier in high temp, high humidity scenarios, too. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature)
- bryanlarsen 2mo ago
  Thwaites Glacier and the glaciers locked behind it are predicted to raise sea levels by 3 metres in the next 50 years. And that's just one source -- it doesn't include Greenland's glaciers, other parts of Antarctica, and the expansion effect of warming the ocean water. Florida is particularly vulnerable because it's porous. We could build sea walls around NYC to protect it, but that wouldn't work well for Florida. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5wB2ur1S2w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5wB2ur1S2w
thrance 2mo ago
> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. Nobody was claiming that Florida would be under water by 2026. You just made up an hyperbolic claim and attributed it to academics to discredit them.
card_zero 2mo ago
The title has that generic alarmist flavor, but the article is rather sensible: persistent anticyclones may form every summer, such as one over Europe, leading to regular droughts and perhaps an urgent need for desalination plants. The message is to be ready to build infrastructure like that, if this seems to be happening.

JV00 2mo ago

Take a walk up the alps, compare to pictures from 20 years ago and see for yourself

metabagel 2mo ago

> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. I don't doubt that is your recollection, but nobody back then was predicting it would happen in 20 years. The time frames given were much longer. But, the vibe was definitely that we need to wake up and do something right now, because by the time climate change hits real hard it will be too late to avert the calamity.

unsupp0rted 2mo ago
In 1992 Al Gore’s book said 60% of the population of Florida will have to relocate due to flooding. He didn’t mean in 100 years.
- ceejayoz 2mo ago
  The actual quote is a little more circumspect than you portray it to be. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/al-gores-long-and-persistent-record-of-miserable-failure-8ebbeaca https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/al-gores-long-an... > The then-senator claimed that “according to some predictions”—no specifics were offered—“in the next few decades,” “up to 60 percent of the present population of Florida may have to be relocated.” It's possible to be right on the substance and wrong on the timing. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry 's investor revolt. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/floridas-private-home-insurance-market-124000361.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/floridas-private-home-insuran... > Active private home insurance policies in Florida declined by 78% over roughly a decade, with the state's insurer of last resort skyrocketing to 63% of the market share, as reported by PRNewswire and republished on Yahoo. That is a dramatic pullback in a state where storm risk has long shaped the housing market.
  - BarnabyQJones 2mo ago
    [flagged]
anonymousiam 2mo ago
Some were predicting it, and those predictions got a lot of publicity. https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2019/09/20/nolte-climate-experts-are-0-41-with-their-doomsday-predictions/ https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2019/09/20/nolte-clima...

Marsymars 2mo ago

> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. This doesn't seem plausible - the worst-case predictions for sea level rise by the end of the century are around 2m. That would certainly be bad for Florida, but like 80% of the population lives higher than 2m above sea level, so it certainly wouldn't be unliveable.

jay_kyburz 2mo ago
A beautiful island archipelago with heaps of cool snorkeling in the ruins just below the surface.
ceejayoz 2mo ago
I'd note that "under water" isn't the only issue at hand. Florida's homeowners insurance industry has largely collapsed in recent years. Rising sea levels can impact fresh water supplies (https://www.wusf.org/weather/2024-11-27/trillion-dollar-hidden-threat-climate-change-rising-groundwater-florida https://www.wusf.org/weather/2024-11-27/trillion-dollar-hidd...). > Up to 70% of residents between North Carolina and Florida, and a trillion dollars in property, could be impacted by the end of the century with just over three feet of sea rise. South Florida represents the vast majority of that risk, with about 7.5 million people and $750 billion dollars in property expected to face increasing risks as groundwaters rise, the study found. Power failures get scarier in high temp, high humidity scenarios, too. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature)
bryanlarsen 2mo ago
Thwaites Glacier and the glaciers locked behind it are predicted to raise sea levels by 3 metres in the next 50 years. And that's just one source -- it doesn't include Greenland's glaciers, other parts of Antarctica, and the expansion effect of warming the ocean water. Florida is particularly vulnerable because it's porous. We could build sea walls around NYC to protect it, but that wouldn't work well for Florida. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5wB2ur1S2w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5wB2ur1S2w

thrance 2mo ago

> I’m not sure: when I was in high school / university it was well understood that places like Florida would be under water and unlivable by now. Nobody was claiming that Florida would be under water by 2026. You just made up an hyperbolic claim and attributed it to academics to discredit them.

card_zero 2mo ago

The title has that generic alarmist flavor, but the article is rather sensible: persistent anticyclones may form every summer, such as one over Europe, leading to regular droughts and perhaps an urgent need for desalination plants. The message is to be ready to build infrastructure like that, if this seems to be happening.