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> Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was. This is not a bad strategy for a company in our asymmetric regulatory environment. Fortunes were made in c
by runako 1mo ago
> Kalshi is just hoping to be treated like Uber was.
This is not a bad strategy for a company in our asymmetric regulatory environment. Fortunes were made in crypto on exactly this one-way bet.
Go on breaking the law until you get a favorable judge/Congress. Nobody is going to jail (we don't really do that anymore), you might pay a fine. Every once in a while you'll have change the app a little to sort of comply with a judicial order. There's practically no downside to this strategy.
- vkou 1mo agoWhat kind of society do you get when the positive EV play is to always break the law first, litigate later?
- brendoelfrendo 1mo agoIf you're in the USA, you can see for yourself by looking out the window. It's not great!
- kotaKat 1mo agoQuite a few people (and countries) subscribe to the “it isn’t a war crime the first time” model.
- bfdm 1mo agoA broken one, evidently.
- highfrequency 1mo ago> Go on breaking the law until you get a favorable judge/Congress. Nobody is going to jail (we don't really do that anymore), you might pay a fine. Binance, FTX, BitMex, Silk Road founders all went to jail - it’s a huge coin flip.
- grim_io 1mo agoIt was a different time.
- kingkawn 1mo agooffering services illegally is one thing, defrauding investors in Ponzi schemes is different
- aetch 1mo agoNow they’re getting out of jail with a few donations
- runako 1mo ago> Binance, FTX, BitMex, Silk Road founders all went to jail BitMex didn't go to jail, they all got probation/ankle tag, for not running a clean money org (allegedly no KYC, registering US accounts from offshore, etc.). CZ got caught in the US anti-China panic that also saw the TikTok ban pass Congress with nearly 80(!) votes in the Senate. Silk Road: drug trafficking. FTX is the closest analog, but by all accounts they did not run a clean operation. What I have read of their operation would have been grounds for charging even if they were trading legal securities. Seems the through line is if your main business is illegal, you need to run it as if it were going to be legalized tomorrow.
- khriss 1mo agoIIRC, the Binance founder simply paid Trump off and got a pardon, with Trump himself admitting afterwards that he 'didn't know who the guy was'. So, the assertion that there are no real consequences anymore for 0.1% continues to hold.
- laserlight 1mo agoSam Bankman Fried wasn't jailed for running FTX. He was jailed for conducting fraud. Silk Road wasn't a registered company at all. It was downright criminal.
- mixdup 1mo agoSilk Road was running an online marketplace for heroin and hitmen. That is not the same as Uber pushing the boundaries on what a "taxi" is, and you obviously know that. FTX was a ponzi scheme and that is the one financial crime they will still put you in jail for. It's the exception that proves parent comment's rule
- treebeard901 1mo agoKalshi hired Donald Trump Jr as a strategic advisor with a salary reported to be around $300,000 per year. Recently there was a meeting between him and various State Attorneys General, where the message was back off prediction markets. Not too long after that other areas of the Trump Admin sent a letter basically saying the same thing. And so the circuit courts coming to very different conclusions from the 9th circuit represents the inherent political corruption involved in the court system. Circuit splits get resolved at the Supreme Court and I would make a prediction that it isnt a coin flip, probably more of a safe bet.
- cyanydeez 1mo agoNot just breaking the log: use your VC funding to both build your product and buy your politicians. The asymmetry is basically that our politicians are way cheaper than market demand, like they're communists in north korea and just border guards who can get bought off with some contraband.
- trompetenaccoun 1mo agoFortunes were made long before venture capitalists and governments got involved in (crypto)currencies. Even larger fortunes were prevented by legislation crafted by the banking cartel over many decades, pushed through with the help of their lobbyists in DC. Existing legislation favors the haves, not the could-haves. And many people go to jail every year for breaking rules that big banks get a slap on the wrist for. Money laundering, terror financing, fraud,... Name a major bank and I'll list you some crimes no one ever spent a day in prison for. But that's fine because they have a license.
- alexpotato 1mo agoThis has been true in the opposite case too. e.g. make as much money as possible while you have a favorable judge/Congress/President b/c you assume the ability to make money will go away once the next regime is in power.
- watwut 1mo agoI mean, you wrote it as of there was an alternative pf these companies not trying to make as much money as possible.