4 ms·

>And Epstein friends Lutnick, Larry Silverstein, Sarah Ferguson and Michael Jackson all had appointments in the WTC on 9/11 and all canceled last minute. I loo

>And Epstein friends Lutnick, Larry Silverstein, Sarah Ferguson and Michael Jackson all had appointments in the WTC on 9/11 and all canceled last minute. I looked into this so I could call you out for spreading disinformation. Except what I found was that this statement is factually accurate as far as I can tell. Each person had their own separate story as to why they didn't go that day. Huh. Not sure what to make of this.

tgma 1mo ago
> Not sure what to make of this. Not much as the sample has (literally) survival bias.
- mapontosevenths 1mo ago
  I feel like it's just a statistical fact that many people used to visit and cancel visits there every day, but it's hard to say how unlikely this was without numbers.
  - Apocryphon 1mo ago
    Seth MacFarlane and Mark Wahlberg were famously supposed to be on American Airlines Flight 11, and Jackie Chan was supposed to start filming a movie at the World Trade Center that very morning. I’m sure more near-brushes exist.
    - 2938177 1mo ago
      Looking at the total set of people who cancelled last minute appears to be the correct start. Then you'd have to find all subsets who had any common friend like Epstein in this case. I'm sure you can find more such subsets. The problem with the Epstein subset is that 100% of his friends survived (Lutnick's brother mentioned above wasn't one) and that Epstein was far from a normal person who had already been involved in Iran Contra and Angola CIA affairs. How to take that into account statistically? It isn't just a matter of being statistically illiterate.
      - tgma 1mo ago
        > 100% of his friends survived How do we know this? Not disputing this, I am just curious what evidence we have that ensures none of the dead were friends with him?
toast0 1mo ago
> Not sure what to make of this. What was their rate of last minute cancellations? I suspect people in that circle frequently change plans, sometimes at the last minute, so having changed plans on that day would be unremarkable had that day itself been unremarkable. Not to mention the first plane hit at at 8:46 am. Looking at details, none of these seem remarkable, and wouldn't have been remembered or written about if they happened the day before... Sarah Ferguson's meeting was scheduled fot 8:45, but she was delayed by traffic after coming from an interview. ... Morning traffic in New York on a business day is not unusual and busy people miss tightly scheduled meetings because of it. Michael Jackson performed in a concert the day before and was reportedly up late talking on the phone. I didn't see a scheduled time for the meeting, but a missed meeting after a concert doesn't seem surprising to me. Concert started at 7:40 pm according to a ticket stub photo here [1] Larry Silverstein was reportedly double booked and kept a dermetology appointment his wife had booked after he missed one a month prior. Stuff happens, your wife books medical appointments for you without checking your calendar and you don't miss them twice. Lutnick took his eldest son to their first day of Kindergarten. Which is something you do if you can. I didn't see any indication that he had a meeting scheduled. I'm guessing there's no consipiracy or even reporting about him going to the first day of Kindergarten for his other three children, but he probably did. [1] https://www.concertarchives.org/concerts/michael-jackson-30th-anniversary-celebration https://www.concertarchives.org/concerts/michael-jackson-30t...
- ipaddr 1mo ago
  [flagged]
  - t-3 1mo ago
    No it wouldn't. Parents accompanying children to their first day of school is pretty normal and sometimes required, especially for the fancy private schools someone like Lutnick probably sent his kids to.
    - ipaddr 1mo ago
      Usually the wife in a rich Jewish family in 2001 would bring the kids to school not the husband. Today no as much. Doesn't mean everyone but it is strange.
jibal 1mo ago
George Herbert Walker Bush and Richard Nixon were both in Dallas on November 22, 1963, the day that Kennedy was assassinated. What should rational people make of that? Nothing, other than that people have very poor statistical intuitions ... see the work of Kahneman and Tversky.
- NDlurker 1mo ago
  Bush being there likely wasn't a coincidence.
  - jibal 1mo ago
    Really? What is the actual probability attached to that word "likely", and what is the data is support of a Bayesian calculation to reach that conclusion? I refer again to rational people. Bush was president of the Zapata Off-Shore Drilling Company and chairman of the Harris County Republican Party, and was meeting with local Texans to build support for his run for the U.S. Senate in 1964. His presence had nothing to do with Kennedy. At the moment of the assassination he was in Tyler, 100 miles away. Even if, contrary to all reason, Bush was involved in the assassination of Kennedy, there would not have been any reason for him to personally be in Dallas that day.
    - somenameforme 1mo ago
      I'd agree with you that he would not have any reason to be there, but things like this [1] sure look extremely weird. [1] - https://youtu.be/pukqrmTm65Q?t=81 https://youtu.be/pukqrmTm65Q?t=81
deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]
podocarp 1mo ago
Perhaps we should compare how many famous people died, and how many near missed. I'm not great at stats but I'm guessing if it was all near misses that would be pretty insane, suggesting somehow they all got the idea to cancel on that day whereas regular Joes didn't get the memo. Whereas if it was like 80% then yea probably attributable to "a busy schedule".

tgma 1mo ago

> Not sure what to make of this. Not much as the sample has (literally) survival bias.

mapontosevenths 1mo ago
I feel like it's just a statistical fact that many people used to visit and cancel visits there every day, but it's hard to say how unlikely this was without numbers.
- Apocryphon 1mo ago
  Seth MacFarlane and Mark Wahlberg were famously supposed to be on American Airlines Flight 11, and Jackie Chan was supposed to start filming a movie at the World Trade Center that very morning. I’m sure more near-brushes exist.
  - 2938177 1mo ago
    Looking at the total set of people who cancelled last minute appears to be the correct start. Then you'd have to find all subsets who had any common friend like Epstein in this case. I'm sure you can find more such subsets. The problem with the Epstein subset is that 100% of his friends survived (Lutnick's brother mentioned above wasn't one) and that Epstein was far from a normal person who had already been involved in Iran Contra and Angola CIA affairs. How to take that into account statistically? It isn't just a matter of being statistically illiterate.
    - tgma 1mo ago
      > 100% of his friends survived How do we know this? Not disputing this, I am just curious what evidence we have that ensures none of the dead were friends with him?

toast0 1mo ago

> Not sure what to make of this. What was their rate of last minute cancellations? I suspect people in that circle frequently change plans, sometimes at the last minute, so having changed plans on that day would be unremarkable had that day itself been unremarkable. Not to mention the first plane hit at at 8:46 am. Looking at details, none of these seem remarkable, and wouldn't have been remembered or written about if they happened the day before... Sarah Ferguson's meeting was scheduled fot 8:45, but she was delayed by traffic after coming from an interview. ... Morning traffic in New York on a business day is not unusual and busy people miss tightly scheduled meetings because of it. Michael Jackson performed in a concert the day before and was reportedly up late talking on the phone. I didn't see a scheduled time for the meeting, but a missed meeting after a concert doesn't seem surprising to me. Concert started at 7:40 pm according to a ticket stub photo here [1] Larry Silverstein was reportedly double booked and kept a dermetology appointment his wife had booked after he missed one a month prior. Stuff happens, your wife books medical appointments for you without checking your calendar and you don't miss them twice. Lutnick took his eldest son to their first day of Kindergarten. Which is something you do if you can. I didn't see any indication that he had a meeting scheduled. I'm guessing there's no consipiracy or even reporting about him going to the first day of Kindergarten for his other three children, but he probably did. [1] https://www.concertarchives.org/concerts/michael-jackson-30th-anniversary-celebration https://www.concertarchives.org/concerts/michael-jackson-30t...

ipaddr 1mo ago
[flagged]
- t-3 1mo ago
  No it wouldn't. Parents accompanying children to their first day of school is pretty normal and sometimes required, especially for the fancy private schools someone like Lutnick probably sent his kids to.
  - ipaddr 1mo ago
    Usually the wife in a rich Jewish family in 2001 would bring the kids to school not the husband. Today no as much. Doesn't mean everyone but it is strange.

jibal 1mo ago

George Herbert Walker Bush and Richard Nixon were both in Dallas on November 22, 1963, the day that Kennedy was assassinated. What should rational people make of that? Nothing, other than that people have very poor statistical intuitions ... see the work of Kahneman and Tversky.

NDlurker 1mo ago
Bush being there likely wasn't a coincidence.
- jibal 1mo ago
  Really? What is the actual probability attached to that word "likely", and what is the data is support of a Bayesian calculation to reach that conclusion? I refer again to rational people. Bush was president of the Zapata Off-Shore Drilling Company and chairman of the Harris County Republican Party, and was meeting with local Texans to build support for his run for the U.S. Senate in 1964. His presence had nothing to do with Kennedy. At the moment of the assassination he was in Tyler, 100 miles away. Even if, contrary to all reason, Bush was involved in the assassination of Kennedy, there would not have been any reason for him to personally be in Dallas that day.
  - somenameforme 1mo ago
    I'd agree with you that he would not have any reason to be there, but things like this [1] sure look extremely weird. [1] - https://youtu.be/pukqrmTm65Q?t=81 https://youtu.be/pukqrmTm65Q?t=81

deleted 1mo ago

[deleted]

podocarp 1mo ago

Perhaps we should compare how many famous people died, and how many near missed. I'm not great at stats but I'm guessing if it was all near misses that would be pretty insane, suggesting somehow they all got the idea to cancel on that day whereas regular Joes didn't get the memo. Whereas if it was like 80% then yea probably attributable to "a busy schedule".