3 ms·

Genetics does not explain steep raise in last a few decades. Anyway, we do not really know what is causing it, have no real idea what it even is. But we must a

Genetics does not explain steep raise in last a few decades. Anyway, we do not really know what is causing it, have no real idea what it even is. But we must apply occam's razor very very quickly!

john_strinlai 1mo ago
>Genetics does not explain steep raise in last a few decades. as we built better telescopes, we found more stars
- coldtea 1mo ago
  Quick and cheap explanation many use, but not the case. Severe autism is also on the rise, and that doesn't need special telescopes, it's just evident.
  - john_strinlai 1mo ago
    >but not the case like all things in life, it's not the only variable. but better recognition is absolutely a factor.
  - autoexec 1mo ago
    It's entirely possible that the ability of doctors to diagnose even severe autism has improved, for example a family doctor who sees a young child with very low IQ may not be surprised by undeveloped language skills and may not recognize that as autism specifically. It's also possible that the increasing destigmatizing of mental/developmental disorders and increased awareness of autism in general could result in more parents and doctors seeking proper assessments. The sad reality is that there are still places where autism is likely to be seen a spiritual condition, a witch's curse, or demonic possession.
  - wredcoll 1mo ago
    What is the incidence per million over the last couple of decades?
  - inigyou 1mo ago
    Well we used to just let those people die. You know how the medieval family had like 15 children and 4 survived to adulthood? Some of those 11 were severely autistic.
    - coldtea 1mo ago
      That would be relevant if we compared to the 10th century. We're comparing to the 1960s and 1980s.
  - astura 1mo ago
    I have twin cousins who have severe autism, one of which is institutionalized. When they were very young we (their caregivers, family, and doctors) understood their diagnosis to be "mental retardation." Nowadays they are known as autistic. They didn't change, but the world around them changed so their diagnosis shifted. Before there were government services families still had children with profound disabilities that required lifelong care, they just didn't usually have any formal diagnosis. Everyone still understood that they need help with everyday activities and can't live on their own but sending them to specialist for a diagnosis didn't seem like something that was needed or even available if desired. The diagnosis is needed if you're applying for services, so more services that exist means more formal diagnosis will happen.
- pvaldes 1mo ago
  A) There are more autistic people because something noxious causes autism. B) Nope. There are more autistic people because tests improved. This common discourse annoys me a little, frankly. The problem is that "B" does not imply "not A". Both explanations can be true at the same time. But people people will automatically discard "A" because "A is problematic". It implies a cause, and we may not like it, so is removed from the discussion ASAP. The same kind of "problematic" that was to observe in 1960's that "smokers develop lung cancer frequently, maybe tobacco causes cancer". Companies will fight teeth and nails to dismiss it and say "look at the cute squirrel over there". But is true that we started to notice much more autistic people after the use of some particular pesticide became widespread in the entire planet. May be related. May be not. May be a common result triggered by many causes, but we should not jump to bring home the "nice" B just because is nice (and politically convenient)
jasonpeacock 1mo ago
The steep rise in the last few decades is primarily due to increased awareness and expanded definition/diagnoses.
SubiculumCode 1mo ago
First, and foremost, the rise in autism rates is due to more sensitive instruments, a broadening of some inclusion criteria between DSM 4 and 5, more awareness of autism, less stigma associated with autism, services attached to autism diagnosis. I believe current research suggests these don't account for all the rise, but does account for most of it. If I were to include additional biological possibilities, I'd include: a) birth control -> waiting to have children until a later age, more de novo mutations due to age. b) assortive mating, since some careers tend to attract those on the within and on the edges of the spectrum., c) perhaps controversially, and with the very little research on the subject, endocrine disruption from plastic waste exposures.
- throw939ii44 1mo ago
  Severe autism is on raise as well, and that has stable diagnoses over several years. Plus general cognitive decline in last a few decades is also documented. Is it politically correct to write about later stage pregnancies? It would be insta ban only a few years ago. Perhaps soon we will be able to openly discus something else, that may cause endocrine disruption, not just plastics!
  - javanissen 1mo ago
    We already know that most of the increase, even in diagnosis of level 3 autism, is due to diagnostic shifting/switching (as explained pretty well here: https://youtu.be/BdpSfrD3Nzs https://youtu.be/BdpSfrD3Nzs). We also know there are reasonably well supported risk factors that are increasing in prevalence; e.g. father aged >50 at the time of birth. > general cognitive decline According to whom? The Flynn effect famously says the opposite: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect
- longhaul 1mo ago
  @SubiculumCode - replying as you are a researcher in this field. There is an increase in profound autism globally (I think this is the new naming to differentiate severe autism) which isn’t explained by sensitive instruments or inclusion criteria. You just don’t need them to identify profound autism, it is that obvious. Affected people need caregivers for life also causing severe mental and financial stress. It will only help your research to investigate this increase which perhaps will lead to medical breakthroughs.
deleted 1mo ago
[deleted]

Genetics does not explain steep raise in last a few decades. Anyway, we do not really know what is causing it, have no real idea what it even is. But we must apply occam's razor very very quickly!

john_strinlai 1mo ago

>Genetics does not explain steep raise in last a few decades. as we built better telescopes, we found more stars

coldtea 1mo ago
Quick and cheap explanation many use, but not the case. Severe autism is also on the rise, and that doesn't need special telescopes, it's just evident.
- john_strinlai 1mo ago
  >but not the case like all things in life, it's not the only variable. but better recognition is absolutely a factor.
- autoexec 1mo ago
  It's entirely possible that the ability of doctors to diagnose even severe autism has improved, for example a family doctor who sees a young child with very low IQ may not be surprised by undeveloped language skills and may not recognize that as autism specifically. It's also possible that the increasing destigmatizing of mental/developmental disorders and increased awareness of autism in general could result in more parents and doctors seeking proper assessments. The sad reality is that there are still places where autism is likely to be seen a spiritual condition, a witch's curse, or demonic possession.
- wredcoll 1mo ago
  What is the incidence per million over the last couple of decades?
- inigyou 1mo ago
  Well we used to just let those people die. You know how the medieval family had like 15 children and 4 survived to adulthood? Some of those 11 were severely autistic.
  - coldtea 1mo ago
    That would be relevant if we compared to the 10th century. We're comparing to the 1960s and 1980s.
- astura 1mo ago
  I have twin cousins who have severe autism, one of which is institutionalized. When they were very young we (their caregivers, family, and doctors) understood their diagnosis to be "mental retardation." Nowadays they are known as autistic. They didn't change, but the world around them changed so their diagnosis shifted. Before there were government services families still had children with profound disabilities that required lifelong care, they just didn't usually have any formal diagnosis. Everyone still understood that they need help with everyday activities and can't live on their own but sending them to specialist for a diagnosis didn't seem like something that was needed or even available if desired. The diagnosis is needed if you're applying for services, so more services that exist means more formal diagnosis will happen.
pvaldes 1mo ago
A) There are more autistic people because something noxious causes autism. B) Nope. There are more autistic people because tests improved. This common discourse annoys me a little, frankly. The problem is that "B" does not imply "not A". Both explanations can be true at the same time. But people people will automatically discard "A" because "A is problematic". It implies a cause, and we may not like it, so is removed from the discussion ASAP. The same kind of "problematic" that was to observe in 1960's that "smokers develop lung cancer frequently, maybe tobacco causes cancer". Companies will fight teeth and nails to dismiss it and say "look at the cute squirrel over there". But is true that we started to notice much more autistic people after the use of some particular pesticide became widespread in the entire planet. May be related. May be not. May be a common result triggered by many causes, but we should not jump to bring home the "nice" B just because is nice (and politically convenient)

jasonpeacock 1mo ago

The steep rise in the last few decades is primarily due to increased awareness and expanded definition/diagnoses.

SubiculumCode 1mo ago

First, and foremost, the rise in autism rates is due to more sensitive instruments, a broadening of some inclusion criteria between DSM 4 and 5, more awareness of autism, less stigma associated with autism, services attached to autism diagnosis. I believe current research suggests these don't account for all the rise, but does account for most of it. If I were to include additional biological possibilities, I'd include: a) birth control -> waiting to have children until a later age, more de novo mutations due to age. b) assortive mating, since some careers tend to attract those on the within and on the edges of the spectrum., c) perhaps controversially, and with the very little research on the subject, endocrine disruption from plastic waste exposures.

throw939ii44 1mo ago
Severe autism is on raise as well, and that has stable diagnoses over several years. Plus general cognitive decline in last a few decades is also documented. Is it politically correct to write about later stage pregnancies? It would be insta ban only a few years ago. Perhaps soon we will be able to openly discus something else, that may cause endocrine disruption, not just plastics!
- javanissen 1mo ago
  We already know that most of the increase, even in diagnosis of level 3 autism, is due to diagnostic shifting/switching (as explained pretty well here: https://youtu.be/BdpSfrD3Nzs https://youtu.be/BdpSfrD3Nzs). We also know there are reasonably well supported risk factors that are increasing in prevalence; e.g. father aged >50 at the time of birth. > general cognitive decline According to whom? The Flynn effect famously says the opposite: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect
longhaul 1mo ago
@SubiculumCode - replying as you are a researcher in this field. There is an increase in profound autism globally (I think this is the new naming to differentiate severe autism) which isn’t explained by sensitive instruments or inclusion criteria. You just don’t need them to identify profound autism, it is that obvious. Affected people need caregivers for life also causing severe mental and financial stress. It will only help your research to investigate this increase which perhaps will lead to medical breakthroughs.

deleted 1mo ago

[deleted]