5 ms·

US Patriot missile stocks in Europe are 'beyond critical' due to Iran war

21 points by hn_acker 1mo ago

hn_acker 1mo ago
The full title is: > US Patriot missile stocks in Europe are ‘beyond critical’ due to Iran war, officials say
anovikov 1mo ago
German plant to produce them is about to come online in weeks and reach full production in a year so there's no reason to worry.
- toomuchtodo 1mo ago
  Can those munitions be provided to Ukraine without US approval?
- bigyabai 1mo ago
  The Iran war could escalate in under a year. The US produces ~1.6 MIM-104s per-day; Some 224 MIM-104s/day were expended in the opening days of the conflict. I'd say there are arithmetically reasonable causes for worry.
  - anovikov 1mo ago
    How can Iran war escalate? Is there anything in which Iran is still relevant at all? At this point we can just forget of it. Of course, pipelines around Hormuz need to be finished but they are being quickly built right now. Surely cheap mass-produced interceptors for simple ballistic missiles are needed. Ukraine is working on them, it has to - in this sense, we can be confident in them simply because they are cornered and have no way around it.
    - bigyabai 1mo ago
      The strait is still closed, import of fertilizer and bulk materials has effectively ceased: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/1168190 https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/1168190 The onus is now on the United States to escort ships in and out of the Strait with the US Navy, for shipping to resume for US allies. Otherwise, Iran has the initiative and the means to ransom anyone in the Strait for insurance. Israeli intelligence estimates say that the IRGC possesses as many as 80,000 operational UAVs[0] and can manufacture upwards of 400 Shahed 136 drones in a day. The United States does not have enough interceptors to escort ships even if that manufacturing was cut by 3/4ths. And there are no doubt tens-of-thousands of drones in reserve, earmarked for the littoral defense mission. So, how can things escalate? Iran can use cheap weapons to terrorize global shipping for longer than the US Navy can sustain itself in the Gulf. MLRS artillery and drones can deny the Marine Corps a steady foothold or a safe supply chain to any of the Iranian shore islands. Tehran is too far away from America's allies to attempt a Thunder Run with the Army, and a demonstrable risk to the Air Force if they use drones or jets to support their ground formations. If the goal of this war truly is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, then America has to react. Iran has thousands of centrifuges in storage, domestic uranium mines and a stockpile of LEU and MEU[1] on standby. [0] https://www.newsrael.com/posts/611y4wktzum https://www.newsrael.com/posts/611y4wktzum [1] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/iran#uranium-enrichment https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil...
      - anovikov 1mo ago
        Well, only way to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon is denying them electricity. Trump can do it easily but it literally means "ending civilisation" (knock out all thermal plants and monitor with infrared sensors to ensure they are not restored, there is no way to hide a working power plant). But it means no city life. Maybe it will come to that. Iran needs to be made irrelevant, and this can be done by working around the strait by building enough pipelines, in 1-3 years they will be gradually commissioned, and Iran's leverage will no longer exist.
        bigyabai 1mo ago
        Shaheds can be launched on battery or generator power as long as there's gasoline. Iran's satellite targeting is managed through Chinese intermediaries[0], and Trump isn't going to bomb China over it. So the denial of naval traffic can continue effectively forever, considering that Shaheds can be made with lawnmower motors and homemade fiberglass. Building pipelines is a contingency, because Iran's leverage over the strait will exist until the US dismantles the cell-like resistance structures of the IRGC. A few years of this will have disastrous effects on the tourism-dependent Gulf economies, and could force mass migration if desalination facilities are attacked and fertilizer is denied import. If the rich people leave and the poor people die, then Israel's victory over Iran is pyrrhic for America's allies and the global order. Escalation is therefore a sociopathic choice, for Americans. [0] https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/04/15/iran-used-chinese-spy-satellite-to-target-us-bases/ https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/04/15/iran...
ck2 1mo ago
Putin must be laughing his *ss off
electroweak 1mo ago
Despite four years of close observation and support of the war on Ukraine the message from the Iran conflict is that the US has not learned a thing about how to efficiently fight a war against drones.
- nojvek 1mo ago
  The lower the stock, the higher next year’s military budget. Military complex loves having a bigger budget every year. Social security solvency be damned. I think the lessons have been learnt well. Just not the ones that serve average American.
netsharc 1mo ago
And they're also wrecking shipfuls of seamen...

21 points by hn_acker 1mo ago

The full title is: > US Patriot missile stocks in Europe are ‘beyond critical’ due to Iran war, officials say

German plant to produce them is about to come online in weeks and reach full production in a year so there's no reason to worry.

toomuchtodo 1mo ago
Can those munitions be provided to Ukraine without US approval?
bigyabai 1mo ago
The Iran war could escalate in under a year. The US produces ~1.6 MIM-104s per-day; Some 224 MIM-104s/day were expended in the opening days of the conflict. I'd say there are arithmetically reasonable causes for worry.
- anovikov 1mo ago
  How can Iran war escalate? Is there anything in which Iran is still relevant at all? At this point we can just forget of it. Of course, pipelines around Hormuz need to be finished but they are being quickly built right now. Surely cheap mass-produced interceptors for simple ballistic missiles are needed. Ukraine is working on them, it has to - in this sense, we can be confident in them simply because they are cornered and have no way around it.
  - bigyabai 1mo ago
    The strait is still closed, import of fertilizer and bulk materials has effectively ceased: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/1168190 https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/1168190 The onus is now on the United States to escort ships in and out of the Strait with the US Navy, for shipping to resume for US allies. Otherwise, Iran has the initiative and the means to ransom anyone in the Strait for insurance. Israeli intelligence estimates say that the IRGC possesses as many as 80,000 operational UAVs[0] and can manufacture upwards of 400 Shahed 136 drones in a day. The United States does not have enough interceptors to escort ships even if that manufacturing was cut by 3/4ths. And there are no doubt tens-of-thousands of drones in reserve, earmarked for the littoral defense mission. So, how can things escalate? Iran can use cheap weapons to terrorize global shipping for longer than the US Navy can sustain itself in the Gulf. MLRS artillery and drones can deny the Marine Corps a steady foothold or a safe supply chain to any of the Iranian shore islands. Tehran is too far away from America's allies to attempt a Thunder Run with the Army, and a demonstrable risk to the Air Force if they use drones or jets to support their ground formations. If the goal of this war truly is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, then America has to react. Iran has thousands of centrifuges in storage, domestic uranium mines and a stockpile of LEU and MEU[1] on standby. [0] https://www.newsrael.com/posts/611y4wktzum https://www.newsrael.com/posts/611y4wktzum [1] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/iran#uranium-enrichment https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil...
    - anovikov 1mo ago
      Well, only way to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon is denying them electricity. Trump can do it easily but it literally means "ending civilisation" (knock out all thermal plants and monitor with infrared sensors to ensure they are not restored, there is no way to hide a working power plant). But it means no city life. Maybe it will come to that. Iran needs to be made irrelevant, and this can be done by working around the strait by building enough pipelines, in 1-3 years they will be gradually commissioned, and Iran's leverage will no longer exist.
      - bigyabai 1mo ago
        Shaheds can be launched on battery or generator power as long as there's gasoline. Iran's satellite targeting is managed through Chinese intermediaries[0], and Trump isn't going to bomb China over it. So the denial of naval traffic can continue effectively forever, considering that Shaheds can be made with lawnmower motors and homemade fiberglass. Building pipelines is a contingency, because Iran's leverage over the strait will exist until the US dismantles the cell-like resistance structures of the IRGC. A few years of this will have disastrous effects on the tourism-dependent Gulf economies, and could force mass migration if desalination facilities are attacked and fertilizer is denied import. If the rich people leave and the poor people die, then Israel's victory over Iran is pyrrhic for America's allies and the global order. Escalation is therefore a sociopathic choice, for Americans. [0] https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/04/15/iran-used-chinese-spy-satellite-to-target-us-bases/ https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/04/15/iran...

ck2 1mo ago

Putin must be laughing his *ss off

electroweak 1mo ago

Despite four years of close observation and support of the war on Ukraine the message from the Iran conflict is that the US has not learned a thing about how to efficiently fight a war against drones.

nojvek 1mo ago
The lower the stock, the higher next year’s military budget. Military complex loves having a bigger budget every year. Social security solvency be damned. I think the lessons have been learnt well. Just not the ones that serve average American.

netsharc 1mo ago

And they're also wrecking shipfuls of seamen...