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All of this is truly bizarre, I hope that we can make sense of this craze in the future. Maybe it will be seen similarly to the dancing crazes of the Middle Ag

All of this is truly bizarre, I hope that we can make sense of this craze in the future. Maybe it will be seen similarly to the dancing crazes of the Middle Ages.

glhaynes 1mo ago
Or maybe it's not just a craze and we'll soon look back and think "I wonder what we might've done differently if we'd been clear-eyed about what was happening."
- matherial 1mo ago
  Show me a person who truly revised their priors to put forward a novel solution to AI that isn't just "do the thing that I like and that benefits me in some way". The discourse around all this is a mix of quasi-religious beliefs (pro and con) and blatant opportunism. For Dario and Sam, the solution is "give us a monopoly on this tech". For Gates, it's "create an supranational organization with unprecedented taxation and regulatory powers" - world AI police, presumably staffed by technocrats like him. What's your take? Do the ideas put forward by Gates strike you as worth pursuing? What are the trade-offs - how can they go wrong?
  - ryeights 1mo ago
    https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/ https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/ https://ai-2040.com https://ai-2040.com Can you describe a method of slowing frontier AI development that you yourself would not classify as monopoly-seeking by US AI companies or power-seeking by governments and technocrats? Limiting the development of powerful AI requires restricting free enterprise in some way, backed by the threat of force; hence, there will always be a cynical framing available.
    - pona-a 1mo ago
      In the case of the US AI industry, how about some stricter banking laws to forbid its current circular financing?
    - harimau777 1mo ago
      Many people would be fine with restricting free enterprise. It hasn't exactly given us great quality of life, at least in America.
  - dgellow 1mo ago
    > Do the ideas put forward by Gates strike you as worth pursuing? What are the trade-offs - how can they go wrong? I agree. However, why aren’t we applying the same standard to AI technologies themselves? That doesn’t strike me as worth pursuing, the article discusses all the ways that is and will go wrong
- outworlder 1mo ago
  Unless there's another significant breakthrough, LLMs will only get incremental improvements.
  - reasonableklout 1mo ago
    Do they need more than incremental breakthroughs to transform society?
    - dgellow 1mo ago
      They don’t even need breakthroughs, it’s already damaging to societies
ChaitanyaSai 1mo ago
I could google this, but what are these dancing crazes?
dgellow 1mo ago
I think it will be seen similar to the crypto craze to be honest. People on this very site, with an actual reputation, were telling us non stop how we were losers who were going to be left behind and stay poor. They never had to apologize for being obnoxious when that didn’t happen
- azan_ 1mo ago
  Comparing AI to crypto makes zero sense. We get tremendous use from AI right now, while 2 decades after invention of crypto there are still basically zero legitimate use cases. I repeat - the utility of AI is not some hypothetical but something that happens right now at very large scale (so please don't reply with something in line "well, crypto was supposed to have lots of uses also").
  - dgellow 1mo ago
    That’s irrelevant… I’m talking about the craze, not the technology
    - azan_ 1mo ago
      But that doesn't make sense. How can you evaluate if craze is warranted without evaluating underlying technology?
      - dgellow 1mo ago
        I’m very familiar with both technologies, but it’s not what my comment was about. The crypto craze would have been the same if we would have ended with some actual use cases for cryptocurrencies. The level of frenzy was completely out of proportion, very aggressive, with that same attitude of „we will impose something on you, change the world, you will be left behind and stay poor forever for having not been a believer“
        azan_ 1mo ago
        The thing is - with AI the position that everything will change is reasonable, with crypto not.
atleastoptimal 1mo ago
You really think that legitimate concern about AI is equivalent to mass hysteria? Do you think AI will just stop getting better?

All of this is truly bizarre, I hope that we can make sense of this craze in the future. Maybe it will be seen similarly to the dancing crazes of the Middle Ages.

glhaynes 1mo ago

Or maybe it's not just a craze and we'll soon look back and think "I wonder what we might've done differently if we'd been clear-eyed about what was happening."

matherial 1mo ago
Show me a person who truly revised their priors to put forward a novel solution to AI that isn't just "do the thing that I like and that benefits me in some way". The discourse around all this is a mix of quasi-religious beliefs (pro and con) and blatant opportunism. For Dario and Sam, the solution is "give us a monopoly on this tech". For Gates, it's "create an supranational organization with unprecedented taxation and regulatory powers" - world AI police, presumably staffed by technocrats like him. What's your take? Do the ideas put forward by Gates strike you as worth pursuing? What are the trade-offs - how can they go wrong?
- ryeights 1mo ago
  https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/ https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/ https://ai-2040.com https://ai-2040.com Can you describe a method of slowing frontier AI development that you yourself would not classify as monopoly-seeking by US AI companies or power-seeking by governments and technocrats? Limiting the development of powerful AI requires restricting free enterprise in some way, backed by the threat of force; hence, there will always be a cynical framing available.
  - pona-a 1mo ago
    In the case of the US AI industry, how about some stricter banking laws to forbid its current circular financing?
  - harimau777 1mo ago
    Many people would be fine with restricting free enterprise. It hasn't exactly given us great quality of life, at least in America.
- dgellow 1mo ago
  > Do the ideas put forward by Gates strike you as worth pursuing? What are the trade-offs - how can they go wrong? I agree. However, why aren’t we applying the same standard to AI technologies themselves? That doesn’t strike me as worth pursuing, the article discusses all the ways that is and will go wrong
outworlder 1mo ago
Unless there's another significant breakthrough, LLMs will only get incremental improvements.
- reasonableklout 1mo ago
  Do they need more than incremental breakthroughs to transform society?
  - dgellow 1mo ago
    They don’t even need breakthroughs, it’s already damaging to societies

ChaitanyaSai 1mo ago

I could google this, but what are these dancing crazes?

dgellow 1mo ago

I think it will be seen similar to the crypto craze to be honest. People on this very site, with an actual reputation, were telling us non stop how we were losers who were going to be left behind and stay poor. They never had to apologize for being obnoxious when that didn’t happen

azan_ 1mo ago
Comparing AI to crypto makes zero sense. We get tremendous use from AI right now, while 2 decades after invention of crypto there are still basically zero legitimate use cases. I repeat - the utility of AI is not some hypothetical but something that happens right now at very large scale (so please don't reply with something in line "well, crypto was supposed to have lots of uses also").
- dgellow 1mo ago
  That’s irrelevant… I’m talking about the craze, not the technology
  - azan_ 1mo ago
    But that doesn't make sense. How can you evaluate if craze is warranted without evaluating underlying technology?
    - dgellow 1mo ago
      I’m very familiar with both technologies, but it’s not what my comment was about. The crypto craze would have been the same if we would have ended with some actual use cases for cryptocurrencies. The level of frenzy was completely out of proportion, very aggressive, with that same attitude of „we will impose something on you, change the world, you will be left behind and stay poor forever for having not been a believer“
      - azan_ 1mo ago
        The thing is - with AI the position that everything will change is reasonable, with crypto not.

atleastoptimal 1mo ago

You really think that legitimate concern about AI is equivalent to mass hysteria? Do you think AI will just stop getting better?