4 ms·

Viruses don't reproduce by mutation, they reproduce by getting the host to manufacture more copies of the virus, which takes resources (which ultimately come do

by MarkusQ 1mo ago

Viruses don't reproduce by mutation, they reproduce by getting the host to manufacture more copies of the virus, which takes resources (which ultimately come down to energy) away from the host. The "monkeys" aren't trying huge numbers of variations, they are making huge numbers of identical copies with very rare (and usually non-functional) variations when they fail to copy exactly.

robocat 1mo ago
The survivorship bias is strong in you. You're ignoring unsuccessful mutations... But those are the chaos monkeys that really matter!! "on the order of 10¹⁷–10¹⁹ individual nucleotide mutations per month". In part because infectious virions are far fewer than total viral RNA copies. Which ends up with 2-3 mutations per month in the successful lineage. That's the "rare" number you're thinking of, but mutations are extremely common (as anyone with cancer finds out). Your "energy" point is just plain wrong. You might carry 100ug of virus when infected - a tiny proportion of your weight. Total mass of virions in humanity at peak might have been 10kg. See "The total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions" https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7685332/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7685332/
- MarkusQ 1mo ago
  I suspect you aren't reading well. I said: > ...they are making huge numbers of identical copies with very rare (and usually non-functional) variations... to which you replied: > You're ignoring unsuccessful mutations... You are also conflating absolute numbers with likelihoods; flipping two dozen heads in a row is a rare occurrence (1:2⁻²⁴). Saying that "if everyone on Earth tried it today we'd expect it to happen ~500 times" is not a counter argument. You're also conflating the substitution rate (rate of mutation rate accumulation in the viral gene pool) with the frequency of copying errors (your "chaos monkeys" metaphor, to which I'm objecting). Your objection to my statement that viral reproduction consumes resources from the host (which I shorthanded as "energy" since all cellular resources ultimately depend on this) is nonsensical. Who cares about the mass of the viruses? That's like disputing the claim that "the vandals caused $3 million in property damage" by saying "but they only had $273.15 with them". It's completely irrelevant.

by MarkusQ 1mo ago

robocat 1mo ago

The survivorship bias is strong in you. You're ignoring unsuccessful mutations... But those are the chaos monkeys that really matter!! "on the order of 10¹⁷–10¹⁹ individual nucleotide mutations per month". In part because infectious virions are far fewer than total viral RNA copies. Which ends up with 2-3 mutations per month in the successful lineage. That's the "rare" number you're thinking of, but mutations are extremely common (as anyone with cancer finds out). Your "energy" point is just plain wrong. You might carry 100ug of virus when infected - a tiny proportion of your weight. Total mass of virions in humanity at peak might have been 10kg. See "The total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions" https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7685332/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7685332/

MarkusQ 1mo ago
I suspect you aren't reading well. I said: > ...they are making huge numbers of identical copies with very rare (and usually non-functional) variations... to which you replied: > You're ignoring unsuccessful mutations... You are also conflating absolute numbers with likelihoods; flipping two dozen heads in a row is a rare occurrence (1:2⁻²⁴). Saying that "if everyone on Earth tried it today we'd expect it to happen ~500 times" is not a counter argument. You're also conflating the substitution rate (rate of mutation rate accumulation in the viral gene pool) with the frequency of copying errors (your "chaos monkeys" metaphor, to which I'm objecting). Your objection to my statement that viral reproduction consumes resources from the host (which I shorthanded as "energy" since all cellular resources ultimately depend on this) is nonsensical. Who cares about the mass of the viruses? That's like disputing the claim that "the vandals caused $3 million in property damage" by saying "but they only had $273.15 with them". It's completely irrelevant.