3 ms·

> Additionally Ebola (Zaire) has previously been shown to be potentially spread via aerosols. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep00811 https://www.nature.com/a

> Additionally Ebola (Zaire) has previously been shown to be potentially spread via aerosols. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep00811 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep00811 Ah, I was not aware of this, so thanks for pointing that out. That does indeed look quite concerning, so let's hope that that won't apply to humans (although I'm struggling to think of a plausible biological reason for why it wouldn't). > I am quite worried about the potential for this situation in the DRC (a country of ~116m people, ~55% rural) to 1) not burn itself out, 2) act as a smouldering viral reservoir where occasional spillovers occur to the western hemisphere. I agree that this is bad in the sense that something absolutely horrific is happening to a lot of people; I was just trying to refute the point that we could also somehow wake up with Ebola a month from now.

fakedang 2mo ago
Doesn't Ebola kill faster than transmission can be maximized? I believe Nipah in Asia also faces the same "issue".
- colingauvin 2mo ago
  In general the more severe a virus the less likely it is to spread into a pandemic. This is for a couple reasons: 1) really sick people are less likely to go spread it, 2) really sick people are easier to identify and isolate and 3) the time between virus shedding and death is very small. There are, of course, some exceptions (long incubation periods where you can shed virus but are totally asymptomatic) but those are rare and usually self limiting in some other factor. Smallpox was really the worst possible case and we have thankfully eliminated it. Big deadly pandemics (black plague level) are usually bacteria.
  - paimapi 2mo ago
    >Big deadly pandemics (black plague level) are usually bacteria. that's not really true, is it? I'm thinking small pox and influenza are big ones with well-studied pandemics that had fairly high mortality rates

fakedang 2mo ago

Doesn't Ebola kill faster than transmission can be maximized? I believe Nipah in Asia also faces the same "issue".

colingauvin 2mo ago
In general the more severe a virus the less likely it is to spread into a pandemic. This is for a couple reasons: 1) really sick people are less likely to go spread it, 2) really sick people are easier to identify and isolate and 3) the time between virus shedding and death is very small. There are, of course, some exceptions (long incubation periods where you can shed virus but are totally asymptomatic) but those are rare and usually self limiting in some other factor. Smallpox was really the worst possible case and we have thankfully eliminated it. Big deadly pandemics (black plague level) are usually bacteria.
- paimapi 2mo ago
  >Big deadly pandemics (black plague level) are usually bacteria. that's not really true, is it? I'm thinking small pox and influenza are big ones with well-studied pandemics that had fairly high mortality rates