4 ms·

The EU didn't really fold, they blew him off. It was just a bunch of "yeah sure Donny, here's a bunch of meaningless promises we have no ability or mechanism to

The EU didn't really fold, they blew him off. It was just a bunch of "yeah sure Donny, here's a bunch of meaningless promises we have no ability or mechanism to actually enforce". For example they promised to buy a bunch of gas, but the EU has no mechanism to make companies or even member states buy gas. The only real concession the EU made was just allowing Trump to tariff them at a certain rate, and not counter-tariffing back (with various escape clauses). While the EU response certainly wasn't a feel-good display of chest thumping, I think it was somewhat effective. He was able to strut around and feel big, and they were able to move on. The only reason the EU would really want to apply counter tariffs against the USA would be to either make a point, or because they are actually afraid that exports from the USA could outcompete EU products unless tariffed, but this just isn't really the case right now. ___________________ The only form of retailiation I think the EU should actually be pursuing is the equivalent of tariffs on US software. This is the area that the USA is a highly competitive 'exporter', and putting up barriers agaisnt these software services would be a good way to hurt the USA, and protect / stimulate domestic alternatives.

shevy-java 2mo ago
> The only real concession the EU made was just allowing Trump to tariff them at a certain rate No. Van der Leyen also promised EU investments into the USA. This is betrayal as well; that money should go into EU countries. Or Canada.
- watwut 2mo ago
  That was kind of an estimated sum of investments european companies planned to make anyway. It is not like eu started to build up im us.
  - myko 2mo ago
    True, though the prudent move would be to stop investing in the US entirely
- eigenspace 2mo ago
  That's what I was talking about with the false promises. The EU has no mechanism to make those investments in the USA, and no mechanism to force any member state or company to make investments. They literally just made up a number and said "oh yes, we'll make a bunch of investments" with zero intention of doing anything to make it happen.
guerrilla 2mo ago
Not just software but online services. That would help us a lot and is safer anyway.
stephbook 2mo ago
Europe/EU are highly reliant on the US military and these issues are linked.
- evgen 2mo ago
  The EU has no real reliance on US military might. Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger and the EU can use Ukraine as a proxy to cripple Russia while keeping their hands relatively clean.
  - tgsovlerkhgsel 2mo ago
    I wish you were right, but look at Ukraine's desperate requests for Patriot missiles and Switzerland letting the US screw them repeatedly to get F-35 and Patriot.
    - microtonal 2mo ago
      Patriots are a big issue now, but they are also for the US after the Iran war. You now also see European countries starting to European alternatives as a result (e.g. SAMP/T and IRIS-T). While these are also still low(er) volume, the EU controls its own destiny by switching to alternatives to US systems.
  - ben_w 2mo ago
    Sadly not. Russia went into the war with armed forces that turned out as you say (possibly except the nukes, hard to tell unless they attempt to use one); the war forced them to develop substantial drone and anti-drone capabilities that the EU nations are not yet in a position to counter.
    - microtonal 2mo ago
      Yes and no. A lot of the drones are developed by Ukraine in cooperation with companies in EU countries and production facilities are being opened quite rapidly in European countries (e.g. VDL in NL, Innokas in Finland). The EU is pumping a lot of money into Ukraine and we learn a lot from Ukraine.
spockz 2mo ago
Regarding the retaliation, I’m unsure who would be hurt more. There are very few ready alternatives to the MS office suite, and none with the close integrations like AD. Most corps run on Microsoft. If those contracts get slapped with tariffs they would become unmanageable to buy. Then, because it isn’t on-premise anymore where you could just continue running without paying for the service contract you lose direct access to the product. So that might even mean whole companies going under.
- s_dev 2mo ago
  The US sells software to the EU. To me is constantly amazing that US citizens and US gov thinks it can just pull the plug without consequence to itself. You pull the plug the money stops rolling in. I don't know if you've ever tried to sell something vs buying something but buying is a ALOT easier than selling. You can easily choose where to buy but choosing to sell is a lot trickier. Pull the plug on AI and the EU will switch to Chinese models. Trade negotiations and relations are very fragile and difficult to curate and maintain. Very easy to rip up.
  - ntoskrnl_exe 2mo ago
    You seem to ignore the fact that changes take time. There are entire governments in the EU with workflows built around Microsoft products that have no real 1:1 alternatives. If a governmental procedure stipulates that a ministry uses Windows w/ Office365, it uses Windows w/ Office365, no room for an argument. If anybody pulls a plug here, the consequences will be unimaginable. It's nice that a single German state has switched to LibreOffice, but the rest of Germany, or the remaining 26 countries might take years, if not decades, to certify and permit someone else's solution.
    - microtonal 2mo ago
      If the plug is fully pulled, the EU could confiscate some European Azure/Office365 servers and 'put the software on the market'. Windows is even easier, I'm sure in such a situation the EU would be happy to limit the restrictions on reverse engineering to block license verification. I'm sure that there are some hard drives on European territory with the full Windows source code as well.
mytailorisrich 2mo ago
If Europe does't buy gas from Russia then that leaves Qatar and the US. Qatar does sell a lot to Europe (hence you'll notice how "friendly" Europe is towards Qatar) but is vulnerable to instability in the straight of Ormuz. The US are making a fortune on gas at the expense of Europe an it's not that the promise to buy gas is meaningless because unenforceable within Europe, it's that it was already happening in practice. And that makes Europe even more dependent on the US (while the complaint was that we could't buy gas from Russia and depend on them).
- eigenspace 2mo ago
  Yes, the EU does rely on buying US gas as an important part of its energy mix. But that is true independent of whatever deal the EU struck with Trump. The EU simply does not have control of who its gas importers buy from (other than sanctions) But this is also why the EU is aggressively pursuing and building up alternatives, including investments in Canada's ability to export LNG, but also buildouts of solar, wind, and batteries. Solar and batteries come with their own dependencies on China, but at least those are a different sort of dependency than fossil fuels. If China stops exporting solar / batteries, the ones we have will still keep functioning for decades while alternatives are built up.
  - throwaway473825 2mo ago
    > But this is also why the EU is aggressively pursuing and building up alternatives Unfortunately, this couldn't be further from the truth: https://cleantechnica.com/2026/07/12/head-of-iea-roasts-europe-for-slow-electrification/ https://cleantechnica.com/2026/07/12/head-of-iea-roasts-euro... Here are some specific numbers: https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/many-building-renewables-few-electrostates.png https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/many-building-r... The EU is heavily investing in renewables, but mainly to phase out coal rather than gas, and it's absolutely not electrifying its economy. You can see this in the EU Emissions Trading System. It covers about 40% of all emissions, but leaves out buildings (dominated by gas) and transportation (dominated by oil). Since electricity is covered, it actually encourages oil and gas over electricity. Furthermore, member states like Germany are resistant to taxing gas higher than electricity: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/17/germany-warns-eu-electricity-tax-plan-threatens-national-sovereignty https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/17/germany-warns-... Despite the wars in Ukraine and Iran, gas is still encouraged over electricity in many European countries. China and some other Asian countries have adopted the opposite approach. They aim to replace oil and gas by all possible means, including coal (although it's not the preferred choice).
tgsovlerkhgsel 2mo ago
The EU also stopped enforcing its laws (like DMA and GDPR) against US tech companies.
- eigenspace 2mo ago
  They paused some investigations while the negotiations happen, but most of those are back on track now.
  - Phelinofist 2mo ago
    I agree with your top-level-ish reply - the response by the EU was certainly smart and there are some really interesting things going atm that will loosen the dependency on the US. But just for _feel good_ I would've liked at least a bit more of a fight. But re:DMA see the most recent Apple app store post on here. Kinda feels like the EU folded too easily there as well.
    - eigenspace 2mo ago
      We still haven't seen what the EU's reaction is to Apple's latest app store stunt. This would not be the first time that Apple unilaterally claimed something was DMA compliant, and then the EU had to come out and say "no, that's clearly not"
      - Phelinofist 2mo ago
        “The Commission welcomes the changes made by Apple to its commercial terms,” commented a spokesperson for the European Commission. This announcement, the spokesperson continues, is “the result of close dialogue between the Commission and Apple,” after the tech giant was found in April 2025 to have breached the rules of the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and ordered to take the necessary corrective measures. In light of these developments and the changes to be introduced, “the Commission will monitor Apple’s effective implementation of the new conditions.” https://www.eunews.it/en/2026/08/18/tracking-and-new-commercial-terms-apple-is-changing-its-rules-to-comply-with-eu-regulations/ https://www.eunews.it/en/2026/08/18/tracking-and-new-commerc... Not sure how credible this is though
u1hcw9nx 2mo ago
To add into what you said. EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) already affects the United States, though its impact varies depending on the sector. CBAM is big permanent change, and that will be rolled in smoothly below all this. EU has carbon tax internally and they are rolling out CBAM to prevent "carbon exports" (manufacturing stuff outside EU and then importing those product without tax). CBAM is currently used directly some high-emission sectors: iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, cement, electricity, and hydrogen. EU importers require granular data on the embedded emissions (both direct and indirect). US companies in these supply chains have had to overhaul how they track and verify carbon intensity down to the sub-supplier level to help their EU buyers comply with strict European reporting standards. EU will gradually expand CBAM after allowing supply chains to adjust.
- paganel 2mo ago
  And then the Europeans suddenly discover that they cannot manufacture enough artillery shells and tanks to out-number the Russians.
  - eigenspace 2mo ago
    You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. If anything, the major gap is the EU's lack of cheap drone manufacturing, but even that is starting to make progress with help and integration from Ukraine.
    - paganel 2mo ago
      > You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. > In 2025, Russia produced an estimated 7 million artillery shells, vs. > Germany has rapidly scaled up artillery ammunition production, led by defense giant Rheinmetall. Output targets have surged from roughly 70,000 shells per year prior to 2022 to a projected 1.1 million to 1.5 million rounds annually by 2027–2030, so now vs. "projected" and Russia still heavily outnumbers the former Nazis. Which is to say give me a fricking break, I live in the closest EU and NATO capital city to Southern Ukraine, I know my shit.
shimonabi 2mo ago
[flagged]
mvanbaak 2mo ago
> and protect / stimulate domestic alternatives. I really would love to see this, but the sad truth is that there are no real alternatives for a very big amount of software products. In the end, the eu residents will simply have to pay more for a lot of software products, and that's it :(
- piva00 2mo ago
  That's the initial impact, it's exactly the incentive that over time will create native competitors. Yeah, there will be immediate pain but if EU competitors can spring up because the American software giants are disadvantaged it'll slowly erode the reliance on US's software.
  - mvanbaak 1mo ago
    I think that consumers will try to avoid the pain, and use vpns and fake addresses to get around the tariffs etc. The whole problem is that the EU is not providing an environment where software vendors can go as fast as the vendors in the US. This is not just a matter of regulations. It's the whole mindset that is too conservative to go fast. The whole 'throw 1000 things at the wall and see what sticks' is not something we europeans are used to.
    - piva00 1mo ago
      > This is not just a matter of regulations. It's the whole mindset that is too conservative to go fast. The whole 'throw 1000 things at the wall and see what sticks' is not something we europeans are used to. It's also a matter of two advantages the USA has: 1. being a homogeneous market culturally-linguistic, there are dozens of countries with very different cultures and languages in Europe, it's not as easy to scale continent-wide as it is to scale country-wide in the USA. 2. exhuberant privilege of the USD, it gives a major advantage on capital markets where capital is sloshing around in the economy, it's much easier to find billions of USD parked somewhere wanting to get better returns. The EU doesn't have this privilege, investments need to be more conservative.

shevy-java 2mo ago

> The only real concession the EU made was just allowing Trump to tariff them at a certain rate No. Van der Leyen also promised EU investments into the USA. This is betrayal as well; that money should go into EU countries. Or Canada.

watwut 2mo ago
That was kind of an estimated sum of investments european companies planned to make anyway. It is not like eu started to build up im us.
- myko 2mo ago
  True, though the prudent move would be to stop investing in the US entirely
eigenspace 2mo ago
That's what I was talking about with the false promises. The EU has no mechanism to make those investments in the USA, and no mechanism to force any member state or company to make investments. They literally just made up a number and said "oh yes, we'll make a bunch of investments" with zero intention of doing anything to make it happen.

guerrilla 2mo ago

Not just software but online services. That would help us a lot and is safer anyway.

stephbook 2mo ago

Europe/EU are highly reliant on the US military and these issues are linked.

evgen 2mo ago
The EU has no real reliance on US military might. Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger and the EU can use Ukraine as a proxy to cripple Russia while keeping their hands relatively clean.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 2mo ago
  I wish you were right, but look at Ukraine's desperate requests for Patriot missiles and Switzerland letting the US screw them repeatedly to get F-35 and Patriot.
  - microtonal 2mo ago
    Patriots are a big issue now, but they are also for the US after the Iran war. You now also see European countries starting to European alternatives as a result (e.g. SAMP/T and IRIS-T). While these are also still low(er) volume, the EU controls its own destiny by switching to alternatives to US systems.
- ben_w 2mo ago
  Sadly not. Russia went into the war with armed forces that turned out as you say (possibly except the nukes, hard to tell unless they attempt to use one); the war forced them to develop substantial drone and anti-drone capabilities that the EU nations are not yet in a position to counter.
  - microtonal 2mo ago
    Yes and no. A lot of the drones are developed by Ukraine in cooperation with companies in EU countries and production facilities are being opened quite rapidly in European countries (e.g. VDL in NL, Innokas in Finland). The EU is pumping a lot of money into Ukraine and we learn a lot from Ukraine.

spockz 2mo ago

Regarding the retaliation, I’m unsure who would be hurt more. There are very few ready alternatives to the MS office suite, and none with the close integrations like AD. Most corps run on Microsoft. If those contracts get slapped with tariffs they would become unmanageable to buy. Then, because it isn’t on-premise anymore where you could just continue running without paying for the service contract you lose direct access to the product. So that might even mean whole companies going under.

s_dev 2mo ago
The US sells software to the EU. To me is constantly amazing that US citizens and US gov thinks it can just pull the plug without consequence to itself. You pull the plug the money stops rolling in. I don't know if you've ever tried to sell something vs buying something but buying is a ALOT easier than selling. You can easily choose where to buy but choosing to sell is a lot trickier. Pull the plug on AI and the EU will switch to Chinese models. Trade negotiations and relations are very fragile and difficult to curate and maintain. Very easy to rip up.
- ntoskrnl_exe 2mo ago
  You seem to ignore the fact that changes take time. There are entire governments in the EU with workflows built around Microsoft products that have no real 1:1 alternatives. If a governmental procedure stipulates that a ministry uses Windows w/ Office365, it uses Windows w/ Office365, no room for an argument. If anybody pulls a plug here, the consequences will be unimaginable. It's nice that a single German state has switched to LibreOffice, but the rest of Germany, or the remaining 26 countries might take years, if not decades, to certify and permit someone else's solution.
  - microtonal 2mo ago
    If the plug is fully pulled, the EU could confiscate some European Azure/Office365 servers and 'put the software on the market'. Windows is even easier, I'm sure in such a situation the EU would be happy to limit the restrictions on reverse engineering to block license verification. I'm sure that there are some hard drives on European territory with the full Windows source code as well.

mytailorisrich 2mo ago

If Europe does't buy gas from Russia then that leaves Qatar and the US. Qatar does sell a lot to Europe (hence you'll notice how "friendly" Europe is towards Qatar) but is vulnerable to instability in the straight of Ormuz. The US are making a fortune on gas at the expense of Europe an it's not that the promise to buy gas is meaningless because unenforceable within Europe, it's that it was already happening in practice. And that makes Europe even more dependent on the US (while the complaint was that we could't buy gas from Russia and depend on them).

eigenspace 2mo ago
Yes, the EU does rely on buying US gas as an important part of its energy mix. But that is true independent of whatever deal the EU struck with Trump. The EU simply does not have control of who its gas importers buy from (other than sanctions) But this is also why the EU is aggressively pursuing and building up alternatives, including investments in Canada's ability to export LNG, but also buildouts of solar, wind, and batteries. Solar and batteries come with their own dependencies on China, but at least those are a different sort of dependency than fossil fuels. If China stops exporting solar / batteries, the ones we have will still keep functioning for decades while alternatives are built up.
- throwaway473825 2mo ago
  > But this is also why the EU is aggressively pursuing and building up alternatives Unfortunately, this couldn't be further from the truth: https://cleantechnica.com/2026/07/12/head-of-iea-roasts-europe-for-slow-electrification/ https://cleantechnica.com/2026/07/12/head-of-iea-roasts-euro... Here are some specific numbers: https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/many-building-renewables-few-electrostates.png https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/06/many-building-r... The EU is heavily investing in renewables, but mainly to phase out coal rather than gas, and it's absolutely not electrifying its economy. You can see this in the EU Emissions Trading System. It covers about 40% of all emissions, but leaves out buildings (dominated by gas) and transportation (dominated by oil). Since electricity is covered, it actually encourages oil and gas over electricity. Furthermore, member states like Germany are resistant to taxing gas higher than electricity: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/17/germany-warns-eu-electricity-tax-plan-threatens-national-sovereignty https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/17/germany-warns-... Despite the wars in Ukraine and Iran, gas is still encouraged over electricity in many European countries. China and some other Asian countries have adopted the opposite approach. They aim to replace oil and gas by all possible means, including coal (although it's not the preferred choice).

tgsovlerkhgsel 2mo ago

The EU also stopped enforcing its laws (like DMA and GDPR) against US tech companies.

eigenspace 2mo ago
They paused some investigations while the negotiations happen, but most of those are back on track now.
- Phelinofist 2mo ago
  I agree with your top-level-ish reply - the response by the EU was certainly smart and there are some really interesting things going atm that will loosen the dependency on the US. But just for _feel good_ I would've liked at least a bit more of a fight. But re:DMA see the most recent Apple app store post on here. Kinda feels like the EU folded too easily there as well.
  - eigenspace 2mo ago
    We still haven't seen what the EU's reaction is to Apple's latest app store stunt. This would not be the first time that Apple unilaterally claimed something was DMA compliant, and then the EU had to come out and say "no, that's clearly not"
    - Phelinofist 2mo ago
      “The Commission welcomes the changes made by Apple to its commercial terms,” commented a spokesperson for the European Commission. This announcement, the spokesperson continues, is “the result of close dialogue between the Commission and Apple,” after the tech giant was found in April 2025 to have breached the rules of the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and ordered to take the necessary corrective measures. In light of these developments and the changes to be introduced, “the Commission will monitor Apple’s effective implementation of the new conditions.” https://www.eunews.it/en/2026/08/18/tracking-and-new-commercial-terms-apple-is-changing-its-rules-to-comply-with-eu-regulations/ https://www.eunews.it/en/2026/08/18/tracking-and-new-commerc... Not sure how credible this is though

u1hcw9nx 2mo ago

To add into what you said. EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) already affects the United States, though its impact varies depending on the sector. CBAM is big permanent change, and that will be rolled in smoothly below all this. EU has carbon tax internally and they are rolling out CBAM to prevent "carbon exports" (manufacturing stuff outside EU and then importing those product without tax). CBAM is currently used directly some high-emission sectors: iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, cement, electricity, and hydrogen. EU importers require granular data on the embedded emissions (both direct and indirect). US companies in these supply chains have had to overhaul how they track and verify carbon intensity down to the sub-supplier level to help their EU buyers comply with strict European reporting standards. EU will gradually expand CBAM after allowing supply chains to adjust.

paganel 2mo ago
And then the Europeans suddenly discover that they cannot manufacture enough artillery shells and tanks to out-number the Russians.
- eigenspace 2mo ago
  You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. If anything, the major gap is the EU's lack of cheap drone manufacturing, but even that is starting to make progress with help and integration from Ukraine.
  - paganel 2mo ago
    > You are not very informed on the EU's artillery shell production capabilities. > In 2025, Russia produced an estimated 7 million artillery shells, vs. > Germany has rapidly scaled up artillery ammunition production, led by defense giant Rheinmetall. Output targets have surged from roughly 70,000 shells per year prior to 2022 to a projected 1.1 million to 1.5 million rounds annually by 2027–2030, so now vs. "projected" and Russia still heavily outnumbers the former Nazis. Which is to say give me a fricking break, I live in the closest EU and NATO capital city to Southern Ukraine, I know my shit.

shimonabi 2mo ago

[flagged]

mvanbaak 2mo ago

> and protect / stimulate domestic alternatives. I really would love to see this, but the sad truth is that there are no real alternatives for a very big amount of software products. In the end, the eu residents will simply have to pay more for a lot of software products, and that's it :(

piva00 2mo ago
That's the initial impact, it's exactly the incentive that over time will create native competitors. Yeah, there will be immediate pain but if EU competitors can spring up because the American software giants are disadvantaged it'll slowly erode the reliance on US's software.
- mvanbaak 1mo ago
  I think that consumers will try to avoid the pain, and use vpns and fake addresses to get around the tariffs etc. The whole problem is that the EU is not providing an environment where software vendors can go as fast as the vendors in the US. This is not just a matter of regulations. It's the whole mindset that is too conservative to go fast. The whole 'throw 1000 things at the wall and see what sticks' is not something we europeans are used to.
  - piva00 1mo ago
    > This is not just a matter of regulations. It's the whole mindset that is too conservative to go fast. The whole 'throw 1000 things at the wall and see what sticks' is not something we europeans are used to. It's also a matter of two advantages the USA has: 1. being a homogeneous market culturally-linguistic, there are dozens of countries with very different cultures and languages in Europe, it's not as easy to scale continent-wide as it is to scale country-wide in the USA. 2. exhuberant privilege of the USD, it gives a major advantage on capital markets where capital is sloshing around in the economy, it's much easier to find billions of USD parked somewhere wanting to get better returns. The EU doesn't have this privilege, investments need to be more conservative.