4 ms·

I for one would like to see the data rather than a press release. Is this even serious? A press release with no link to outside twitter? I feel like everything

by Noaidi 2mo ago

I for one would like to see the data rather than a press release. Is this even serious? A press release with no link to outside twitter? I feel like everything companies, and presidents, say now is directly geared to triggering AI trades. The only thing they are looking at with this drug is people living one more month over existing drugs. THIS IS NOTHING. "The median PFS (progression-free survival) for KEYTRUDA was 5.5 months (2-week group) and 4.1 months (3-week group) compared to 2.8 months for ipilimumab (HR 0.58, P<0.00001 for the KEYTRUDA groups vs. ipilimumab," https://www.merck.com/news/keytruda-pembrolizumab-mercks-anti-pd-1-therapy-demonstrates-superior-survival-progression-free-survival-and-overall-response-rate-compared-to-ipilimumab-an-anti-ctla-4-therapy/ https://www.merck.com/news/keytruda-pembrolizumab-mercks-ant... The median PFS (progression-free survival) for KEYTRUDA was 5.5 months (2-week group) and 4.1 months (3-week group) compared to 2.8 months for ipilimumab (HR 0.58, P<0.00001 for the KEYTRUDA groups vs. ipilimumab, 95% CI, 0.46-0.72 for 2-week group and 0.47-0.72 for 3-week group, respectively). The estimated 6-month PFS rates for the KEYTRUDA and ipilimumab arms were 47.3 percent, 46.4 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively. One-year OS for KEYTRUDA was 74.1 percent (2-week group) and 68.4 percent (3-week group) compared to 58.2 percent for ipilimumab (HR 0.63 [95% CI, 0.47-0.83, P=0.00052] for the 2-week group and HR 0.69 [95% CI, 0.52-0.90, P=0.00358] for the 3-week group). At the time of analysis, median overall survival was not reached in any treatment group.

hyperhello 2mo ago
No it isn’t. They did a test with great specificity and got undeniable P values. Now they can refine the action and start saving people. This is a huge, huge win.
calebkaiser 2mo ago
1. That's not what progression-free survival means. 2. I don't think AI was mentioned once in this press release. 3. This drug was approved for trial in 2014, so if it had something to do with deep learning, that would actually be a massive announcement. 4. The paragraph immediately following the one you clipped talks about Overall Response Rate (ORR) and throughout the release they discuss Overall Survival (OS). 5. This is not "NOTHING" in statistical terms, but even more so to people with melanoma.
- HedonicEscal8r 2mo ago
  Interjecting with a fact. Moderna described the neoantigen immunogenicity prediction algorithm they used to design the vaccines as “a deterministic machine learning (ML) algorithm,” so it may be a small neural network or more traditional algorithm, probably not deep learning.
  - calebkaiser 2mo ago
    Sorry--I was unclear. I was specifically responding to the OP's "CEOs these days want to join the AI hype wave" claim. My point was that the "hype wave" OP is referencing is really about deep learning, not what we think of as traditional statistical learning. Even the dedicated medical AI startups of that era, like BenevolentAI, were still doing traditional ML in 2014. So if Moderna really was trying to join the "AI hype train" and announce a deep learning result with this treatment, they'd be announcing that they successfully trained a deep neural network for drug discovery 12 years ago.
- axus 2mo ago
  My interpretation of "triggering AI trades" is about tricking AI into buying stock, not tricking people into buying AI stocks.
- Noaidi 2mo ago
  1. That's not what progression-free survival means. I was not pointing to PFS as OS. 2. I don't think AI was mentioned once in this press release. I did not say it was. I said it was written FOR AI trading algorithms to read and invest on. 4. The paragraph immediately following the one you clipped talks about Overall Response Rate (ORR) and throughout the release they discuss Overall Survival (OS). Someone noted this was an earlier study. The newest study does not even have data out and yet here we are, investing on a press release. 5. This is not "NOTHING" in statistical terms, but even more so to people with melanoma. You are talking to someone whose father died of pancreatic cancer. "Pancreatic cancer has a higher mortality rate compared to melanoma, with an estimated 52,740 deaths from pancreatic cancer in 2026, while melanoma has a significantly lower death rate. Additionally, the 5-year relative survival rate for pancreatic cancer is only 13.7%, compared to higher survival rates for melanoma." What they did for my father was worse than nothing.
lakhim 2mo ago
you're also looking at a different, older study. Keytruda is a little strange in that it has a very long tail in survivorship, works best in certain cases, and median PFS isn't a really great metric.

by Noaidi 2mo ago

hyperhello 2mo ago

No it isn’t. They did a test with great specificity and got undeniable P values. Now they can refine the action and start saving people. This is a huge, huge win.

calebkaiser 2mo ago

1. That's not what progression-free survival means. 2. I don't think AI was mentioned once in this press release. 3. This drug was approved for trial in 2014, so if it had something to do with deep learning, that would actually be a massive announcement. 4. The paragraph immediately following the one you clipped talks about Overall Response Rate (ORR) and throughout the release they discuss Overall Survival (OS). 5. This is not "NOTHING" in statistical terms, but even more so to people with melanoma.

HedonicEscal8r 2mo ago
Interjecting with a fact. Moderna described the neoantigen immunogenicity prediction algorithm they used to design the vaccines as “a deterministic machine learning (ML) algorithm,” so it may be a small neural network or more traditional algorithm, probably not deep learning.
- calebkaiser 2mo ago
  Sorry--I was unclear. I was specifically responding to the OP's "CEOs these days want to join the AI hype wave" claim. My point was that the "hype wave" OP is referencing is really about deep learning, not what we think of as traditional statistical learning. Even the dedicated medical AI startups of that era, like BenevolentAI, were still doing traditional ML in 2014. So if Moderna really was trying to join the "AI hype train" and announce a deep learning result with this treatment, they'd be announcing that they successfully trained a deep neural network for drug discovery 12 years ago.
axus 2mo ago
My interpretation of "triggering AI trades" is about tricking AI into buying stock, not tricking people into buying AI stocks.
Noaidi 2mo ago
1. That's not what progression-free survival means. I was not pointing to PFS as OS. 2. I don't think AI was mentioned once in this press release. I did not say it was. I said it was written FOR AI trading algorithms to read and invest on. 4. The paragraph immediately following the one you clipped talks about Overall Response Rate (ORR) and throughout the release they discuss Overall Survival (OS). Someone noted this was an earlier study. The newest study does not even have data out and yet here we are, investing on a press release. 5. This is not "NOTHING" in statistical terms, but even more so to people with melanoma. You are talking to someone whose father died of pancreatic cancer. "Pancreatic cancer has a higher mortality rate compared to melanoma, with an estimated 52,740 deaths from pancreatic cancer in 2026, while melanoma has a significantly lower death rate. Additionally, the 5-year relative survival rate for pancreatic cancer is only 13.7%, compared to higher survival rates for melanoma." What they did for my father was worse than nothing.

lakhim 2mo ago

you're also looking at a different, older study. Keytruda is a little strange in that it has a very long tail in survivorship, works best in certain cases, and median PFS isn't a really great metric.