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30-year Treasury yield tops 5.31%, the highest in 19 years
- root-parent 2mo ago"People are worried about America's solvency" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49329347 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49329347
- DoesntMatter22 2mo agoThe whole world is insolvent
- jst1fthsdys 2mo agoTime for a global debt jubilee.
- rationalist 2mo agoPlease let me know when it's time to max out my credit cards to buy gold.
- xkcd1963 2mo agoBased on your commentary on HN you have very low credit score.
- ericmay 2mo ago“People are worried about German/French/Italian/Japanese/Swiss/Canadian solvency” [1] “Germany’s benchmark 10-year bund yield was last seen trading at a 15-year high, while its French counterpart reached its highest yield since 2008. Japan’s 10-year bond yield rose to 2.954%, topping the 40-year high seen in the spring. Yields also spiked across the curve on British, Italian, Swiss and Canadian government bonds.” [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/bond-yields-government-us10y-treasury-note-iran.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/bond-yields-government-us10y...
- mono442 2mo agoIt's rising because the market expects interest rate hikes. Long-term bonds are basically a prediction market for future interest rates.
- Obscurity4340 2mo agoInvesting in long term bond == expected interest rate hikes?
- HSO 2mo agoyield rising means selling
- benj111 2mo agoWell yes. A stock goes up because people are buying, but that avoids the intent of the question, if they're asking about why the stock is rising. The answer the GP. The longer term bonds tend to be less impacted by interest rate expectations. Risk feeds into the yield, as does inflation expectations.
- adjejmxbdjdn 2mo agoThe 30 year isn’t as affected by interest rate hikes unless the market is signaling it sees long term inflation despite interest rate hikes. The 30 year should reflect more fundamental issues.
- adam_arthur 2mo ago30y is keyed to inflation expectations. If fed hiked to 5% tomorrow, 30y would invert and yield would go down. It's not as simple as hikes lead to higher 30y yields.
- vannevar 2mo agoIt's not all inflation expectations, either. The dollar has been strong lately due to elevated oil prices---countries that are short need extra dollars to buy oil, so they often liquidate treasuries to get them.
- burnt-resistor 2mo agoFinancialized AI (debt: ~$2T), private equity (zombie debt: ~$4T), government spending ($7.2T, debt: $39.9T), and the very rich (and up) are the economy right now. Everyone else is/has pulled back and is hurting because of rising prices and job uncertainty.
- ericmay 2mo agoDon’t worry, it’s all over the world. [1] [2] [1] https://www.wsj.com/world/india/500-000-applicants-583-jobs-the-frantic-scramble-for-work-in-india-0fefa2b3?st=eLGoHE https://www.wsj.com/world/india/500-000-applicants-583-jobs-... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/03/world/asia/china-slackers-tangping.html?unlocked_article_code=1.1VA.SET3.asaeNv_-0WyR&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/03/world/asia/china-slackers...