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Yes, and... The US sold Euros to do the propping of Japanese bonds without telling the EU. Not only did we spend a lot to save our biggest sovereign buyer, but

Yes, and... The US sold Euros to do the propping of Japanese bonds without telling the EU. Not only did we spend a lot to save our biggest sovereign buyer, but we undermined our relationship with another. And we didn't buy the Japanese much time. Worth mentioning that lots of buyers is jumping into Chinese bonds over the past week. It feels like the BRICS are taking over as of this month.

deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
ericmay 2mo ago
> Worth mentioning that lots of buyers is jumping into Chinese bonds over the past week. How many? > It feels like the BRICS are taking over as of this month. Taking over what?
- thephyber 2mo ago
  The news about Chinese bond attractiveness today: https://x.com/macropaperr/status/2089255200918007854?s=46 https://x.com/macropaperr/status/2089255200918007854?s=46 Obviously we don't measure it in "how many traders", but what the effect their trading has on the instruments they buy. The US Dollar is slipping from the world's reserve currency status and the US treasury is slipping from the default safe haven for liquid assets. The BRICS countries bonds are becoming more attractive as of this month.
  - kasey_junk 2mo ago
    Brazil, India and South Africa all have 5 year bond yields that are higher now than 5 years ago. Russia is obvious outlier you can’t price well. If there is any news this month in Chinese bonds it’s a) a crazy upward move that corrected and b) the Chinese authorities have upped the quota on foreign bonds that their asset managers are allowed to buy.
    - bluGill 2mo ago
      High bond yields are a sign of low trust - if you trust a currency will be stable you need less yield to risk investing in it.
      - kasey_junk 2mo ago
        Correct, so the BRICS angle I'm responding to is not what the market is showing.
        brazukadev 2mo ago
        it was a tongue-in-cheek comment, I think. China is doing well and will try to prop up its BRICS partners as long as it benefit China. It doesn't help that current US government is actively attacking those countries' economies.
  - piva00 2mo ago
    It's not BRICS as a whole, it's China and a little bit of India. Brazil is a major risk given political turmoil and generalised corruption; Bolsonaro attempted a coup in a country already plagued in history by coups, his son is going to run for presidency and has a chance to win it. South Africa's economy is in shambles, their electricity grid can barely function, the country is going backwards socially and economically. Russia I don't think we even need to talk about. That leaves China and India, China has capital controls and is notoriously difficult to invest in. I don't think there's much in common with BRICS as it was in the early 2000s when the acronym surfaced, as of now they are very dissimilar societies and economies.
    - wahern 2mo ago
      > I don't think there's much in common with BRICS as it was in the early 2000s when the acronym surfaced Excepting India, one thing Russia, China, and South Africa all have in common is they're falling into a relationship of economic patronage with China, their erstwhile peer. That may make the term BRICS antiquated in a sense, but now that China has more control over the group it also increases the collective power that China can summon. Whether that power is substantial enough to have become more meaningful than before, I'm not sure. Doesn't seem like the yuan has gained much ground relative to the dollar, euro, or yen.
  - ericmay 2mo ago
    Bonds go up, bonds go down. This "news" (from a questionable source) needs more context, otherwise it's just noise in isolation. > The US Dollar is slipping from the world's reserve currency status As I always like to remind folks, the US dollar is just one of many currencies that banks keep in reserve. There is no status to lose other than being the one held the most. There are also downsides to being the dominant currency - I'm sure you're aware of those, right? > - and the US treasury is slipping from the default safe haven for liquid assets. Based on what? > The BRICS countries bonds are becoming more attractive as of this month. Are you buying? I'm not buying Chinese bonds. The US stock market is at all-time highs and more people than ever are buying into safe haven American companies. You should provide more details and context about the cause and effects, why it matters, and what it means. Just saying "people find XYZ more attractive" isn't compelling.
    - brazukadev 2mo ago
      > The US stock market is at all-time highs being in an All time high is only better than not being in ATH. With high inflation, it doesn't mean much. It is like Apple every year launching the best iphone ever.
      - ericmay 2mo ago
        Sure but the OP suggested that since some instrument was at some price point it implied some other thing such as investors not having confidence in a country such as the United States. On the other hand the US stock market is at all-time highs due to investor confidence in American markets and the American economy. If investors were seriously worried about the American government going insolvent there would be a flight to safety - you could maybe argue that American stocks would be the safest entity to fly toward due to their intrinsic value, but you could also argue that if the US government went insolvent a lot of these stocks would tank. My point is, the OP was just saying stuff without any evidence or even really much personal analysis. > It is like Apple every year launching the best iPhone ever. In many respects that is technically true.
    - Obscurity4340 2mo ago
      What are the downsides besides being the top which is its statis to lose?

deleted 2mo ago

[deleted]

ericmay 2mo ago

> Worth mentioning that lots of buyers is jumping into Chinese bonds over the past week. How many? > It feels like the BRICS are taking over as of this month. Taking over what?

thephyber 2mo ago
The news about Chinese bond attractiveness today: https://x.com/macropaperr/status/2089255200918007854?s=46 https://x.com/macropaperr/status/2089255200918007854?s=46 Obviously we don't measure it in "how many traders", but what the effect their trading has on the instruments they buy. The US Dollar is slipping from the world's reserve currency status and the US treasury is slipping from the default safe haven for liquid assets. The BRICS countries bonds are becoming more attractive as of this month.
- kasey_junk 2mo ago
  Brazil, India and South Africa all have 5 year bond yields that are higher now than 5 years ago. Russia is obvious outlier you can’t price well. If there is any news this month in Chinese bonds it’s a) a crazy upward move that corrected and b) the Chinese authorities have upped the quota on foreign bonds that their asset managers are allowed to buy.
  - bluGill 2mo ago
    High bond yields are a sign of low trust - if you trust a currency will be stable you need less yield to risk investing in it.
    - kasey_junk 2mo ago
      Correct, so the BRICS angle I'm responding to is not what the market is showing.
      - brazukadev 2mo ago
        it was a tongue-in-cheek comment, I think. China is doing well and will try to prop up its BRICS partners as long as it benefit China. It doesn't help that current US government is actively attacking those countries' economies.
- piva00 2mo ago
  It's not BRICS as a whole, it's China and a little bit of India. Brazil is a major risk given political turmoil and generalised corruption; Bolsonaro attempted a coup in a country already plagued in history by coups, his son is going to run for presidency and has a chance to win it. South Africa's economy is in shambles, their electricity grid can barely function, the country is going backwards socially and economically. Russia I don't think we even need to talk about. That leaves China and India, China has capital controls and is notoriously difficult to invest in. I don't think there's much in common with BRICS as it was in the early 2000s when the acronym surfaced, as of now they are very dissimilar societies and economies.
  - wahern 2mo ago
    > I don't think there's much in common with BRICS as it was in the early 2000s when the acronym surfaced Excepting India, one thing Russia, China, and South Africa all have in common is they're falling into a relationship of economic patronage with China, their erstwhile peer. That may make the term BRICS antiquated in a sense, but now that China has more control over the group it also increases the collective power that China can summon. Whether that power is substantial enough to have become more meaningful than before, I'm not sure. Doesn't seem like the yuan has gained much ground relative to the dollar, euro, or yen.
- ericmay 2mo ago
  Bonds go up, bonds go down. This "news" (from a questionable source) needs more context, otherwise it's just noise in isolation. > The US Dollar is slipping from the world's reserve currency status As I always like to remind folks, the US dollar is just one of many currencies that banks keep in reserve. There is no status to lose other than being the one held the most. There are also downsides to being the dominant currency - I'm sure you're aware of those, right? > - and the US treasury is slipping from the default safe haven for liquid assets. Based on what? > The BRICS countries bonds are becoming more attractive as of this month. Are you buying? I'm not buying Chinese bonds. The US stock market is at all-time highs and more people than ever are buying into safe haven American companies. You should provide more details and context about the cause and effects, why it matters, and what it means. Just saying "people find XYZ more attractive" isn't compelling.
  - brazukadev 2mo ago
    > The US stock market is at all-time highs being in an All time high is only better than not being in ATH. With high inflation, it doesn't mean much. It is like Apple every year launching the best iphone ever.
    - ericmay 2mo ago
      Sure but the OP suggested that since some instrument was at some price point it implied some other thing such as investors not having confidence in a country such as the United States. On the other hand the US stock market is at all-time highs due to investor confidence in American markets and the American economy. If investors were seriously worried about the American government going insolvent there would be a flight to safety - you could maybe argue that American stocks would be the safest entity to fly toward due to their intrinsic value, but you could also argue that if the US government went insolvent a lot of these stocks would tank. My point is, the OP was just saying stuff without any evidence or even really much personal analysis. > It is like Apple every year launching the best iPhone ever. In many respects that is technically true.
  - Obscurity4340 2mo ago
    What are the downsides besides being the top which is its statis to lose?