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> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of
by timr 2mo ago
> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen.
Yeah, people have been "predicting" it, but the fact is that this is currently mostly hyperbole, driven by bad reporting and activist exaggeration.
What is happening, right now, is that winters are mostly getting warmer. Summers are getting hotter in certain places, but not at nearly the rate that cold days are decreasing -- and the evidence is weaker on a global scale. From the IPCC 6AR report, figure 11-9 shows it clearly:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure...
Figure 11-2 shows it another way:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure...
Even the IPCC report only gets to the "virtually certain" evidence level by combining the two claims:
> The frequency and intensity of hot extremes (including heatwaves) have increased, and those of cold extremes have decreased on the global scale since 1950 (virtually certain).
That's because, when you actually look at the data, it is abundantly clear that the increase in hot extremes are far less common than the decrease in cold extremes. Of course, when you take the ratio of the two, this looks worse, because the denominator is getting smaller.
Chapter 11 is worth reading. You will be shocked how many of the widely reported memes about extreme weather and climate are just not supported by good data:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/
I recommend in particular going through the figures, and looking at how many of them are model predictions (nearly all), versus plots of historical data. Setting aside the debates about model quality, etc., surely we can all agree that predictions are not evidence?
- mr_toad 2mo agoGo back and compare some of the earlier IPCC reports and see which bits have been left out. The worst case scenarios keep getting removed, and the best case scenarios are based on projections of CO2 emissions which are highly unrealistic. Official reports have been downplaying the impact for decades, while countries have been setting climate targets that they had no intention of achieving.
- timr 2mo agoArguing that the IPCC report is "downplaying the impact" because of corruption -- which is what you seem to be doing, without evidence -- is an implausible assertion. The far more likely conclusion is that you're wrong.
- js8 2mo agoThey are not saying what the cause of the "downplay" is. It might be as simple as when scientists speaks publicly and present a consensus, they will stay on the safe side and give conservative estimates.
- timr 2mo agoAgain, the parsimonious conclusion is that you are exaggerating, and wrong.
- kakacik 2mo agoYeah, ask any european how less intense the heatwaves are during this summer compared to milder winters, you won't hear a polite response
- Noaidi 2mo agoI went to both of those links. "Page not found". >Setting aside the debates about model quality, etc., surely we can all agree that predictions are not evidence? Predictions are warnings. When we have the evidence it will be too late. So let me ask you, what direction are we headed?
- timr 2mo agoOops. Links got truncated. Here: Figure 11-9: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure-11-9 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure... Figure 11-2: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure-11-2 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure... Chapter 11: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/
- Noaidi 2mo ago> What is happening, right now, is that winters are mostly getting warmer. Summers are getting hotter in certain places, but not at nearly the rate that cold days are decreasing -- and the evidence is weaker on a global scale. From the IPCC 6AR report, figure 11-9 shows it clearly: Thanks. Crazy that you think even these graphs, which do not include the last six years, are just fine. Climate change is not just about it getting warmer. The problem also lies with changes in climate, the pattern of weather. Sudden changes in climate do not allow for adaptation to compensate. This includes human adaptation. But it may be better just to read the IPCC summary: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-polic...
- timr 2mo ago> Crazy that you think even these graphs, which do not include the last six years, are just fine. Did I say those words? This is the latest assessment report, AR6, published 2021-2023. It's the latest IPCC data available. The next one won't come out until after 2029. The fact that you don't understand this indicates that you don't really know the details of what you're talking about.
- ksec 2mo agoIn other words, average temperature is higher is mostly because cold days are shorter and warmer a lot more than hot days is hotter?
- timr 2mo agoI don't know about "shorter", but basically, the cold days are decreasing faster than the hot days are increasing. This is still a problem! But the people who run around screaming about heat waves causing mass casualty today are simply not credible commentators. Far more people die of cold than heat in any given year, so a reduction in cold days will tend to net out to a gain in human life, not a loss.