8 ms·

Yes, that's one of the ones I was talking about. That's not a service that makes you a virus, and making one from an mRNA transcript is not trivial.

by timr 2mo ago

smallmancontrov 2mo ago
And one wouldn't make one from mRNA. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Still: the difficulty isn't comparable to EUV machines or refining uranium and does not form a comfortable security barrier.
- timr 2mo ago
  I generally agree -- the actual risk is from serious/state actors, and for those, the barriers are not high. I'm just saying that people are focused on the wrong problem because they've got LLM-brain.
  - estearum 2mo ago
    The only difference between people who are quite concerned and you is that you are either 1) actually blind to or 2) choosing to ignore even the first derivative on those barriers. The people "got LLM-brain" are saying: "Wow those barriers are coming down fast" And you're saying: "There are still barriers" Both are true, but only one is helpful for thinking about the future. The other is hardly even helpful for thinking about the present, and I've never seen a quasi-intelligent person do it in lieu of some other motivations in their reasoning.
    - smallmancontrov 2mo ago
      So what's your proposal? Lie about the risks enthusiastically enough that someone else does something useful?
      - estearum 2mo ago
        Huh? Is "what's your proposal" your reaction to anyone who's alarmed by a problem? Pretty weird if so. Most problems are such that the people who should be alarmed by them is much, much larger than the set of people who could reasonably solve them.
estearum 2mo ago
Here let's just get specific. For each of the years below, what is YOUR estimate for how long would it take a person of 80th percentile intelligence with $10,000,000 (2026 money) to get from "I'd like to kill a lot of people" to a working virus? You can provide a range for each if you'd like. In the year 1800 – how long? 1950? 2020? 2026? 2050? 2200?

Yes, that's one of the ones I was talking about. That's not a service that makes you a virus, and making one from an mRNA transcript is not trivial.

by timr 2mo ago

Yes, that's one of the ones I was talking about. That's not a service that makes you a virus, and making one from an mRNA transcript is not trivial.

smallmancontrov 2mo ago

And one wouldn't make one from mRNA. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Still: the difficulty isn't comparable to EUV machines or refining uranium and does not form a comfortable security barrier.

timr 2mo ago
I generally agree -- the actual risk is from serious/state actors, and for those, the barriers are not high. I'm just saying that people are focused on the wrong problem because they've got LLM-brain.
- estearum 2mo ago
  The only difference between people who are quite concerned and you is that you are either 1) actually blind to or 2) choosing to ignore even the first derivative on those barriers. The people "got LLM-brain" are saying: "Wow those barriers are coming down fast" And you're saying: "There are still barriers" Both are true, but only one is helpful for thinking about the future. The other is hardly even helpful for thinking about the present, and I've never seen a quasi-intelligent person do it in lieu of some other motivations in their reasoning.
  - smallmancontrov 2mo ago
    So what's your proposal? Lie about the risks enthusiastically enough that someone else does something useful?
    - estearum 2mo ago
      Huh? Is "what's your proposal" your reaction to anyone who's alarmed by a problem? Pretty weird if so. Most problems are such that the people who should be alarmed by them is much, much larger than the set of people who could reasonably solve them.

estearum 2mo ago

Here let's just get specific. For each of the years below, what is YOUR estimate for how long would it take a person of 80th percentile intelligence with $10,000,000 (2026 money) to get from "I'd like to kill a lot of people" to a working virus? You can provide a range for each if you'd like. In the year 1800 – how long? 1950? 2020? 2026? 2050? 2200?