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Do you know how bond auctions work? It's based on a price-discovery mechanism. The treasury announces it wants to sell $ 25B of 30Y bonds. Then investors subm

Do you know how bond auctions work? It's based on a price-discovery mechanism. The treasury announces it wants to sell $ 25B of 30Y bonds. Then investors submit offers saying in effect how much yield they demand to buy them. Then the treasury fills bids from the lowest yield upwards in tranches.

JumpCrisscross 2mo ago
> Do you know how bond auctions work? Yes. What do you think I don't understand? Do you understand the difference between credit and rates?
- epolanski 2mo ago
  I don't think you understand that at bond auctions buyers submit bids essentially setting at which rate they will buy the bonds. Then the treasury fills these orders from the lowest to highest bid. So all of your post make no sense. US paying the highest rates in 25 years means the buyers are expecting higher premiums. And they ask them because they are worried about inflation and elevated borrowing levels.
  - JumpCrisscross 2mo ago
    > Then the treasury fills these orders from the lowest to highest bid No, it does not. Treasury goes down the list until it has allocated the auction and then everyone gets the marginal rate. (And that's for competitive bids. You can also submit a non-competitive bid with no price–that gets filled first.) > US paying the highest rates in 25 years means the buyers are expecting higher premiums Would recommend looking up credit versus rates. It’s a useful construct. > they ask them because they are worried about inflation Nope. Do you know what TIPS are? You can compare the price of a normal Treasury and a TIP to get what Treasury buyers think about inflation. That's the breakeven-inflation rate in my top comment. If you say you think they're wrong, I think I might agree. But the data–Treasury auction and insurance data–speak unambiguously to these points of investors' views, specicially, creditworthineness and inflation expectation.
  - kasey_junk 2mo ago
    > Then the treasury fills these orders from the lowest to highest bid. This is literally exactly wrong. Which is pretty par for the course when someone asks you if you understand how something works in the internet.

JumpCrisscross 2mo ago

> Do you know how bond auctions work? Yes. What do you think I don't understand? Do you understand the difference between credit and rates?

epolanski 2mo ago
I don't think you understand that at bond auctions buyers submit bids essentially setting at which rate they will buy the bonds. Then the treasury fills these orders from the lowest to highest bid. So all of your post make no sense. US paying the highest rates in 25 years means the buyers are expecting higher premiums. And they ask them because they are worried about inflation and elevated borrowing levels.
- JumpCrisscross 2mo ago
  > Then the treasury fills these orders from the lowest to highest bid No, it does not. Treasury goes down the list until it has allocated the auction and then everyone gets the marginal rate. (And that's for competitive bids. You can also submit a non-competitive bid with no price–that gets filled first.) > US paying the highest rates in 25 years means the buyers are expecting higher premiums Would recommend looking up credit versus rates. It’s a useful construct. > they ask them because they are worried about inflation Nope. Do you know what TIPS are? You can compare the price of a normal Treasury and a TIP to get what Treasury buyers think about inflation. That's the breakeven-inflation rate in my top comment. If you say you think they're wrong, I think I might agree. But the data–Treasury auction and insurance data–speak unambiguously to these points of investors' views, specicially, creditworthineness and inflation expectation.
- kasey_junk 2mo ago
  > Then the treasury fills these orders from the lowest to highest bid. This is literally exactly wrong. Which is pretty par for the course when someone asks you if you understand how something works in the internet.