3 ms·
You aren’t getting it. They can pay their engineers half what they used to, you don’t need the same level of skill to build photoshop. Yes, you need a bunch of
by mikert89 2mo ago
You aren’t getting it. They can pay their engineers half what they used to, you don’t need the same level of skill to build photoshop. Yes, you need a bunch of engineers, but they will be driving coding agents, not writing code by hand. They can be hired and fired for cheap
- jkman 2mo agoUntil the VC subsidies stop and the human devs are half the cost of the claude tokens lol
- mikert89 2mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
- Banditoz 2mo agoMoore's Law covers transistors, not LLMs.
- mrguyorama 2mo agoMoore's Law hasn't covered transistors in quite some time. We get about 10% YoY now, which is actually impressive, but not even close to the past experiences. Computing power used to take 18 months to double, and was being attacked at a bunch of different angles. Now we are literally out of tricks, to the point where we had to undo some of those tricks because they were fundamentally flawed, and it takes 100x the engineering investment to get that 10% YoY, or sometimes only every other year, and that isn't going to continue for much longer. We can't increase clock speed much. We can't increase density much. We are out of clever tricks. It takes an entire earth's worth of human talent just to produce the machine that produces the chips. How the hell are people still insisting that computing power continues to follow Moore's Law? Several of the limits we've hit are fundamental matters of physics. Meanwhile, LLMs ask for orders of magnitude more compute than is cheap and cheerful right now. Do we even have a single order of magnitude left for compute?
- mrbombastic 2mo ago[dead]
- kakacik 2mo agoIt won't be photoshop then. It will be shitty, buggy clunky app that costed a (major) fraction to develop but it will also earn a fraction. Companies like MS can afford this ie with Office suite but patience of markets and customers can allow them to go only so far, if ie Excel becomes semi-useless thats the end of Office and big cash cow for M$ (I'd say about time, that monopoly is not good for consumers at all). This is in a way the same argument that all companies will use just boxed (albeit customized) software. In reality many, ie banks run their own custom software and for good reasons. Wake me up (in retirement) when any major bank decides to run their finances, regulatory stuff and transactions on llm-generated stuff made by underpaid devs like you describe.
- mikert89 2mo agoThis is cope, ai coding agents will follow the path of self driving cars. They will be watched with extreme caution, but will slowly but surely expand outwards. Eventually manually writing code will be considered a dangerous/bug introducing act
- cocoto 2mo agoIf AI coding agents follow the same path then any software engineer over 25yo can peacefully continue working for 30 years until the tech is capable. The comparison is futile…
- deaton 2mo agoI've yet to see this apply with self-driving cars.
- fatata123 2mo agoEventually pigs will fly. Oh look anyone can just say ridiculous things will happen with no proof, and mentioning self driving cars does not help your case at all.
- johnnyanmac 2mo ago>They will be watched with extreme caution We're doing a great job of that right now, aren't we?