2 ms·

I've been reading up on the inevitable collapse of the AMOC (the potsdam institute has a number of really good videos covering the subject). Everyone hears 'wi

I've been reading up on the inevitable collapse of the AMOC (the potsdam institute has a number of really good videos covering the subject). Everyone hears 'winters will be up to 10C cooler', but few realize that this will also cause the jet stream to be more wavy, and exacerbate the number of heat waves as well. Sad that europe's mild climate is about to get a whole lot worse...

user43928 2mo ago
I do not think a collapse is inevitable, see: https://climatetippingpoints.info/2026/05/06/news-explainer-is-the-amoc-closer-to-collapse-than-thought/ https://climatetippingpoints.info/2026/05/06/news-explainer-...
- conception 2mo ago
  What in that link do you think is saying it is not inevitable?
  - user43928 2mo ago
    Even if you read just the conclusion at the bottom it seems obvious that there is no consensus about a collapse being inevitable: > Overall though, there is some common ground in recent research: evidence for AMOC weakening having begun is growing, albeit is not clear in every AMOC metric; a substantial decline is expected with current emissions, that over centuries could potentially push the AMOC to a slow ‘shutdown’ state; and there remains a real but uncertain chance that this slowdown could pass a tipping point beyond which this shutdown is locked in, even if warming is halted or even declines. Exactly how much and quickly the AMOC is weakening, and the likelihood of it reaching a tipping point, remain much more uncertain, but what we do know is enough to justify concern and action to reduce the risk of AMOC shutdown
- wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
  I am just repeating the 'gist' I've gotten from my research on the topic, but the risk of AMOC shutdown has gone from a low probability / high impact prediction by 2100, to 'we think there's a strong chance of hitting a tipping point by 2060'. I wish I could point you to a specific paper, but I'm going entirely off memory, and that is fallible The % likelyhood by x date predictions have swayed back and forth as we've adjusted our predictions of which emissions path we actually wind up following.
  - user43928 2mo ago
    I'd highly recommend the analysis I linked if you did not yet check it, he discusses various papers and differences in definitions. Last updated in June.
    - wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
      Took a min to read the link, that was a surprisingly good summary. My whole concern with the AMOC is that given it's a non-linear system, and we've seen evidence of 'fast shutdowns' in the climate record before, I fear we are sleepwalking towards an event that could have catastrophic consequences for the global south, and problems there do not stay there. People flee rather than starve. I also worry what happens to western liberal democracy under the weight of that influx if we're already seeing populism from today's level of migration.
      - raffraffraff 2mo ago
        If your country suddenly has hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of weather migrants from countries with vastly different cultures and values to yours, you'll be wishing that populism was your biggest concern.
        wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
        We are actually fortunate. Folks from LATAM seem to have no problem integrating with US society. Europe seems to have a much harder time with their pool of migrants. Probably due to the lack of birthright citizenship
Insanity 2mo ago
Any good books on the subject you'd recommend?
- wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
  I don't know that there are any pop sci books on amoc collapse specifically, the more popular books on climate change acknowledge it's a possibility but do not really dig into the effects beyond the fact that it will chill europe in the winter and shift the monsoon rainfall belt (southward?). The potsdam institute has some good papers available, and of course, you can find others that ref it in google scholar.

user43928 2mo ago

I do not think a collapse is inevitable, see: https://climatetippingpoints.info/2026/05/06/news-explainer-is-the-amoc-closer-to-collapse-than-thought/ https://climatetippingpoints.info/2026/05/06/news-explainer-...

conception 2mo ago
What in that link do you think is saying it is not inevitable?
- user43928 2mo ago
  Even if you read just the conclusion at the bottom it seems obvious that there is no consensus about a collapse being inevitable: > Overall though, there is some common ground in recent research: evidence for AMOC weakening having begun is growing, albeit is not clear in every AMOC metric; a substantial decline is expected with current emissions, that over centuries could potentially push the AMOC to a slow ‘shutdown’ state; and there remains a real but uncertain chance that this slowdown could pass a tipping point beyond which this shutdown is locked in, even if warming is halted or even declines. Exactly how much and quickly the AMOC is weakening, and the likelihood of it reaching a tipping point, remain much more uncertain, but what we do know is enough to justify concern and action to reduce the risk of AMOC shutdown
wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
I am just repeating the 'gist' I've gotten from my research on the topic, but the risk of AMOC shutdown has gone from a low probability / high impact prediction by 2100, to 'we think there's a strong chance of hitting a tipping point by 2060'. I wish I could point you to a specific paper, but I'm going entirely off memory, and that is fallible The % likelyhood by x date predictions have swayed back and forth as we've adjusted our predictions of which emissions path we actually wind up following.
- user43928 2mo ago
  I'd highly recommend the analysis I linked if you did not yet check it, he discusses various papers and differences in definitions. Last updated in June.
  - wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
    Took a min to read the link, that was a surprisingly good summary. My whole concern with the AMOC is that given it's a non-linear system, and we've seen evidence of 'fast shutdowns' in the climate record before, I fear we are sleepwalking towards an event that could have catastrophic consequences for the global south, and problems there do not stay there. People flee rather than starve. I also worry what happens to western liberal democracy under the weight of that influx if we're already seeing populism from today's level of migration.
    - raffraffraff 2mo ago
      If your country suddenly has hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of weather migrants from countries with vastly different cultures and values to yours, you'll be wishing that populism was your biggest concern.
      - wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
        We are actually fortunate. Folks from LATAM seem to have no problem integrating with US society. Europe seems to have a much harder time with their pool of migrants. Probably due to the lack of birthright citizenship

Insanity 2mo ago

Any good books on the subject you'd recommend?

wing-_-nuts 2mo ago
I don't know that there are any pop sci books on amoc collapse specifically, the more popular books on climate change acknowledge it's a possibility but do not really dig into the effects beyond the fact that it will chill europe in the winter and shift the monsoon rainfall belt (southward?). The potsdam institute has some good papers available, and of course, you can find others that ref it in google scholar.