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> No one is going to take the US seriously for the next 50 years. I hate this obvious pay-for-access thing as much as anyone, but this isn’t going to define th

> No one is going to take the US seriously for the next 50 years. I hate this obvious pay-for-access thing as much as anyone, but this isn’t going to define the US for the next 50 years. The second the next president is in office every other country will adapt to working with them, just as been happening every 4-8 years.

ceejayoz 2mo ago
The American population has demonstrated that they'll nominate an insane criminal to power at random. Twice! I think that's gonna stick longer than the Bush to Clinton style transitions.
- Aurornis 2mo ago
  I’m talking about the people with decision making power and the businesses working internationally. I have no doubt that certain individuals in other countries will be holding grudges against the United States for the rest of their lives long after the country has moved on, but it doesn’t really have any effect. If you’ve spent some time traveling the world every country has older generations who have some grudge against other countries for events that happened prior to most people being born and the younger generations don’t care. The world changes and most people move on.
  - ceejayoz 2mo ago
    > I’m talking about the people with decision making power and the businesses working internationally. As am I. At a certain point, you get bitten enough times that you decide the angry cobra isn't a great pet. It may be really cool, sometimes! But sometimes it hurts you, a lot. > If you’ve spent some time traveling the world every country has older generations who have some grudge against other countries for events that happened prior to most people being born and the younger generations don’t care. Some end this way, sure. For an alternative, see Gaza.
  - hgoel 2mo ago
    They're also talking about decision makers. They're going to operate with the consideration that Americans might elect another mad man. Anything requiring more than one presidential term's time will be much more carefully hedged.
    - saturn8601 2mo ago
      Maybe thats better in the long run. The Cold War kept the US more on its toes and that benefited the world. We have another situation where dumb decisions the US makes will have a faster feedback loop.
  - ricardobeat 2mo ago
    The people with power put this government in place. The point is that there might be no “moving on” from here, just a new normal.
- deleted 2mo ago
  [deleted]
- chermi 2mo ago
  As we know, nothing ever changes. But wait, you just said something changed...
  - ceejayoz 2mo ago
    What President prior to Trump was convicted of a felony?
CaptainZapp 2mo ago
> The second the next president is in office every other country will adapt to working with them, just as been happening every 4-8 years. That may well be, with one big difference. Nobody and no country will trust the US or their commitments ever again.
- Aurornis 2mo ago
  > Nobody and no country will trust the US or their commitments ever again. How do you explain all of the people and countries who are currently trusting the US and their commitments? This is always a strange belief to hold when the current evidence is so overwhelming against it. The rest of the world and the people making decisions know that this administration will come to an end. Something about each new headline convinced a small number of people that this one event is actually the end of the entire country for the next 50 years, against all visible evidence
  - ceejayoz 2mo ago
    > How do you explain all of the people and countries who are currently trusting the US and their commitments? You've never seen a crime flick where the soon-to-be-murdered victim goes "I won't call the cops, I swear! Don't hurt me!" Who's genuinely trusting US commitments right now? Our most stalwart allies sent troops to Greenland as a tripwire force! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arctic_Endurance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arctic_Endurance
    - Aurornis 2mo ago
      If nobody was trusting the country, the economy would collapse. The Greenland drama was dumb, but there is zero reason to think it’s a next 50 years thing. Is the force even still there, or are they gone? Nobody takes the Greenland thing seriously already, and 50 years have not passed.
      - ceejayoz 2mo ago
        Why? I don't trust a wood chipper or angle grinder or fireworks on the Fourth of July, so I'm extra careful around them. Doesn't mean I don't use them. > Is the force even still there… Yep.
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
thisisit 2mo ago
You are debating one hyperbole with another hyperbole. After all not everyone has Trump as President who thinks the only way to work with allies is to bully them. Will this particular thing going to define US for next 50 years? Probably not. Will countries say fuck it and stop working with US? Definitely not. But will they ever have same amount of fear or trust or reverence for the US? Absolutely no. That is now lost. While Iraq and Afghan war wasn't exactly a win for the US, the Iranians have shown that Americans can be had if cards(hands) are right. They now know Americans are completely blind to a president who would sell his mother for the right price and still defend him because they feel invincible and instead of offering a seemingly innocuous job to President's son like Burisma they can now blatantly bribe a jet, pay for access openly and no one in America will care because they believe they are infallible.
tzs 2mo ago
Yes, other countries will keep working with the US, but with a different attitude. They will be much more weary of doing long term things with the US unless they will get enough benefit in the first N years (where N is the remaining term of the current president) for it to be a net win even if the thing stops abruptly after that. Trump 2 is a breakdown of the separation of powers and checks and balances that were supposed to give the US continuity. With that no longer functioning any deal you make with the US is really a deal with the current President which future Presidents may or may not honor. It doesn't matter how reasonable the next President is because just electing a good President doesn't fix the underlying system. If other countries don't see that fixed so that another Trump cannot happen they will not consider the US to be reliable for long term things.

ceejayoz 2mo ago

The American population has demonstrated that they'll nominate an insane criminal to power at random. Twice! I think that's gonna stick longer than the Bush to Clinton style transitions.

Aurornis 2mo ago
I’m talking about the people with decision making power and the businesses working internationally. I have no doubt that certain individuals in other countries will be holding grudges against the United States for the rest of their lives long after the country has moved on, but it doesn’t really have any effect. If you’ve spent some time traveling the world every country has older generations who have some grudge against other countries for events that happened prior to most people being born and the younger generations don’t care. The world changes and most people move on.
- ceejayoz 2mo ago
  > I’m talking about the people with decision making power and the businesses working internationally. As am I. At a certain point, you get bitten enough times that you decide the angry cobra isn't a great pet. It may be really cool, sometimes! But sometimes it hurts you, a lot. > If you’ve spent some time traveling the world every country has older generations who have some grudge against other countries for events that happened prior to most people being born and the younger generations don’t care. Some end this way, sure. For an alternative, see Gaza.
- hgoel 2mo ago
  They're also talking about decision makers. They're going to operate with the consideration that Americans might elect another mad man. Anything requiring more than one presidential term's time will be much more carefully hedged.
  - saturn8601 2mo ago
    Maybe thats better in the long run. The Cold War kept the US more on its toes and that benefited the world. We have another situation where dumb decisions the US makes will have a faster feedback loop.
- ricardobeat 2mo ago
  The people with power put this government in place. The point is that there might be no “moving on” from here, just a new normal.
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
chermi 2mo ago
As we know, nothing ever changes. But wait, you just said something changed...
- ceejayoz 2mo ago
  What President prior to Trump was convicted of a felony?

CaptainZapp 2mo ago

> The second the next president is in office every other country will adapt to working with them, just as been happening every 4-8 years. That may well be, with one big difference. Nobody and no country will trust the US or their commitments ever again.

Aurornis 2mo ago
> Nobody and no country will trust the US or their commitments ever again. How do you explain all of the people and countries who are currently trusting the US and their commitments? This is always a strange belief to hold when the current evidence is so overwhelming against it. The rest of the world and the people making decisions know that this administration will come to an end. Something about each new headline convinced a small number of people that this one event is actually the end of the entire country for the next 50 years, against all visible evidence
- ceejayoz 2mo ago
  > How do you explain all of the people and countries who are currently trusting the US and their commitments? You've never seen a crime flick where the soon-to-be-murdered victim goes "I won't call the cops, I swear! Don't hurt me!" Who's genuinely trusting US commitments right now? Our most stalwart allies sent troops to Greenland as a tripwire force! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arctic_Endurance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Arctic_Endurance
  - Aurornis 2mo ago
    If nobody was trusting the country, the economy would collapse. The Greenland drama was dumb, but there is zero reason to think it’s a next 50 years thing. Is the force even still there, or are they gone? Nobody takes the Greenland thing seriously already, and 50 years have not passed.
    - ceejayoz 2mo ago
      Why? I don't trust a wood chipper or angle grinder or fireworks on the Fourth of July, so I'm extra careful around them. Doesn't mean I don't use them. > Is the force even still there… Yep.

deleted 2mo ago

[deleted]

thisisit 2mo ago

You are debating one hyperbole with another hyperbole. After all not everyone has Trump as President who thinks the only way to work with allies is to bully them. Will this particular thing going to define US for next 50 years? Probably not. Will countries say fuck it and stop working with US? Definitely not. But will they ever have same amount of fear or trust or reverence for the US? Absolutely no. That is now lost. While Iraq and Afghan war wasn't exactly a win for the US, the Iranians have shown that Americans can be had if cards(hands) are right. They now know Americans are completely blind to a president who would sell his mother for the right price and still defend him because they feel invincible and instead of offering a seemingly innocuous job to President's son like Burisma they can now blatantly bribe a jet, pay for access openly and no one in America will care because they believe they are infallible.

tzs 2mo ago

Yes, other countries will keep working with the US, but with a different attitude. They will be much more weary of doing long term things with the US unless they will get enough benefit in the first N years (where N is the remaining term of the current president) for it to be a net win even if the thing stops abruptly after that. Trump 2 is a breakdown of the separation of powers and checks and balances that were supposed to give the US continuity. With that no longer functioning any deal you make with the US is really a deal with the current President which future Presidents may or may not honor. It doesn't matter how reasonable the next President is because just electing a good President doesn't fix the underlying system. If other countries don't see that fixed so that another Trump cannot happen they will not consider the US to be reliable for long term things.