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> Like if someone says we have this many users as a statement you have no idea what they are actually calculating I think that's BS. User metrics are usually v

> Like if someone says we have this many users as a statement you have no idea what they are actually calculating I think that's BS. User metrics are usually very explicitly defined (e.g. monthly or daily active users have always been clearly defined wherever I've worked, even if just for the sole reason that people collecting those numbers need to know what to count). User quality is definitely a gray area and estimating bot percentage has become increasingly difficult, but user metrics are not some ill-defined, fuzzy math notion.

dd8601fn 2mo ago
Seems like your “increasingly difficult” part is kinda what they meant.
firasd 2mo ago
Right I'm not saying that Zuck's staff doesn't know how to calculate MAU or ARR. I'm saying I'm not sure we can trust the 'median' (median on a scale of super-scrupulous to outright-dishonest) CEO is not counting things like inactive cohorts, newsletter subscribers, website hits when counting 'users'... or being very optimistic about whether a customer will renew when calculating 'recurring revenue' I may be wrong! But I am definitely giving such claims the side-eye
- stanleykm 2mo ago
  The “Active” part of “Monthly Active Users” can mean an awful lot of things
  - a34729t 2mo ago
    For example, at a major social media company I worked at in the early 2010s, bots/spam users were deleted after earnings calls, not before. IIRC an employee had the temerity to ask "Is this honest behavior" in an all hands!??!
- hansvm 2mo ago
  I'm 100% convinced that accidental website hits and bounces from unique IPs when viewing the ensuant shitty content counts as MAUs for most, if not all, major tech companies.
lumost 2mo ago
if someone says they have a billion users because they are connected to the doubleclick exchange... they aren't lying, they might be deceptive or simply foolish. As part of due diligence, the buyer/investor should ask how these numbers are calculated and make their own judgement. Unfortunately I believe startups select for those who dance the border of deceptive and foolish.
- zbentley 2mo ago
  > they aren't lying, they might be deceptive I think that’s well within the bounds of what most people would consider to be a “lie”. The legal system has more specific definitions, though.
jdw64 2mo ago
This is an area where deception is possible. For example, if the metric is background API calls, you can fake that too. What matters is how you define 'active users.' In fact, this is a common technique used in well known scam apps in Korea, often called 'vanity metrics.' Generating abusive users and background traffic that create no real business value, then packaging it as user growth. There are even people who specialize in this.

dd8601fn 2mo ago

Seems like your “increasingly difficult” part is kinda what they meant.

firasd 2mo ago

Right I'm not saying that Zuck's staff doesn't know how to calculate MAU or ARR. I'm saying I'm not sure we can trust the 'median' (median on a scale of super-scrupulous to outright-dishonest) CEO is not counting things like inactive cohorts, newsletter subscribers, website hits when counting 'users'... or being very optimistic about whether a customer will renew when calculating 'recurring revenue' I may be wrong! But I am definitely giving such claims the side-eye

stanleykm 2mo ago
The “Active” part of “Monthly Active Users” can mean an awful lot of things
- a34729t 2mo ago
  For example, at a major social media company I worked at in the early 2010s, bots/spam users were deleted after earnings calls, not before. IIRC an employee had the temerity to ask "Is this honest behavior" in an all hands!??!
hansvm 2mo ago
I'm 100% convinced that accidental website hits and bounces from unique IPs when viewing the ensuant shitty content counts as MAUs for most, if not all, major tech companies.

lumost 2mo ago

if someone says they have a billion users because they are connected to the doubleclick exchange... they aren't lying, they might be deceptive or simply foolish. As part of due diligence, the buyer/investor should ask how these numbers are calculated and make their own judgement. Unfortunately I believe startups select for those who dance the border of deceptive and foolish.

zbentley 2mo ago
> they aren't lying, they might be deceptive I think that’s well within the bounds of what most people would consider to be a “lie”. The legal system has more specific definitions, though.

jdw64 2mo ago

This is an area where deception is possible. For example, if the metric is background API calls, you can fake that too. What matters is how you define 'active users.' In fact, this is a common technique used in well known scam apps in Korea, often called 'vanity metrics.' Generating abusive users and background traffic that create no real business value, then packaging it as user growth. There are even people who specialize in this.