3 ms·
The problem is that is speculation and the market barriers are currently too high for losing business to be a threat. The two outcomes are (1) you overbuild, yo
by nemothekid 2mo ago
The problem is that is speculation and the market barriers are currently too high for losing business to be a threat. The two outcomes are (1) you overbuild, you end being wrong, you go bankrupt and lose everything or (2) you are right, but since you didn't overbuild, you lost out on some revenue, but demand still exists 3 years later and you didn't lose everything.
In any other business choosing (2) would mean someone else swoops in and steals all your business. It doesn't look like this is at all possible for memory fabs.
- leoc 2mo agoWell, the Chinese manufacturers are certainly coming, though CXMT seems to be being careful not to rock the boat, at least yet https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinese-cxmt-dram-doesnt-look-like-the-budget-savior-many-were-expecting-new-modules-enter-the-market-but-prices-still-track-the-big-three https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinese-cxmt... .
- thelastgallon 2mo agoIt makes sense, CXMT takes as much profit as possible, then use that money to build more capacity, ultimately becoming one of the biggest competitor (only?) to the cartel.
- crote 2mo agoAs of Q1 2026: 90% market share for the Big Three, 8% CXMT, 2% everyone else. And CXMT was only 3% Q1 2025.
- DannyBee 2mo ago"In any other business choosing (2) would mean someone else swoops in and steals all your business. It doesn't look like this is at all possible for memory fabs." FWIW - Lots of people seem to believe the "in any other business", but it turns out there are tons and tons of places it is equally untrue, even where there is near zero time or cost barrier to entry.