4 ms·

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fert

by pu_pe 2mo ago

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

dgellow 2mo ago
Yep. And not in the future, it is here right now. And poor countries will as always be impacted way more than the US or Europe. The AI industry is the very direct cause and should be shamed for handling their rollout in such a destructing way. They deliberately created and grew the feeling of urgency for their own benefit
tonyedgecombe 2mo ago
2% was already optimistic once we decided we were buying too much from China.
- inigyou 2mo ago
  Literally put a 50% tax on everything and then said it'll only raise prices 2%
  - Dylan16807 2mo ago
    Imports from China to the US are around 1% of US GDP. Total imports are maybe 14%? But not as highly tariffed.
    - tonyedgecombe 2mo ago
      Yes, they are very cheap aren’t they.
- UncleOxidant 2mo ago
  And once we also decided that we needed to attack Iran.
honkostani 2mo ago
[dead]
Aurornis 2mo ago
Yes, but the impact will be small. The average consumer isn't purchasing a lot of products with a lot of RAM every year. Their 8GB of RAM phones will go up in price a little bit, but people aren't buying phones every year or even every other year. So if the price of the 8GB of LPDDR went from $40 to $160 and it's all passed on to the consumer buying a new phone every 4 years, that's an extra $30/year in spending. Most adults I know now use their phone for everything, so they're not buying new computers and laptops. They can wait 3 years for the market to settle before upgrading those, too. Even I'm a heavy buyer of tech products and RAM, and I would bet you that my family's annual food bill fluctuates by more than what I've had to pay for RAM prices growing.
- smt88 2mo ago
  Almost everything we consume is downstream of RAM pricing. I don’t buy a phone every year, but corporate workforces, streaming servers, cars, factories, etc. will all cost more next year.
  - emacdona 2mo ago
    Oh, I hope you are right about cars. If one of the outcomes of the memory crunch is that manufacturers start making “dumb cars” again, it would almost make it all worthwhile.
    - brewdad 2mo ago
      Cars get developed on a cycle that spans a decade in many cases. Four or five years is pretty much the minimum. It could impact development cycles going forward but it will take a good while for that to be reflected in the marketplace. In the shorter term, you’ll probably see more “base” models on offer with some of the most intensive features disabled. There’s still going to be all of the telemetry stuff that makes them money through third parties though.
- ragall 2mo ago
  At the low end, where the vast majority of people are, even in the US, an extra $120 will double the price.
MattDamonSpace 2mo ago
Why are “demand and supply driven price increases” considered inflationary? Isn’t it just… prices?
- applfanboysbgon 2mo ago
  It's inflationary because this demand is backed by Monopoly money. OpenAI is promising to buy half the global supply of RAM with money they don't actually have, pricing out people who would like to make purchases with real money and not $1 trillion in debt.
- odo1242 2mo ago
  Any price increase can be considered inflationary. They usually don’t come down by all that much
- pkulak 2mo ago
  Prices rising is inflation.
  - tripleee 2mo ago
    from what I understood it, at least originally, was used to mean monetary inflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_inflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_inflation
    - inigyou 2mo ago
      No, that's copium from libertarians. I don't have an issue from them also using the word inflation to describe something getting bigger, but it's different from prices going up, which is the definition of inflation.
- Dylan16807 2mo ago
  It's inflationary when the effect is big enough to have a meaningful impact on the price of the average good.

by pu_pe 2mo ago

dgellow 2mo ago

Yep. And not in the future, it is here right now. And poor countries will as always be impacted way more than the US or Europe. The AI industry is the very direct cause and should be shamed for handling their rollout in such a destructing way. They deliberately created and grew the feeling of urgency for their own benefit

tonyedgecombe 2mo ago

2% was already optimistic once we decided we were buying too much from China.

inigyou 2mo ago
Literally put a 50% tax on everything and then said it'll only raise prices 2%
- Dylan16807 2mo ago
  Imports from China to the US are around 1% of US GDP. Total imports are maybe 14%? But not as highly tariffed.
  - tonyedgecombe 2mo ago
    Yes, they are very cheap aren’t they.
UncleOxidant 2mo ago
And once we also decided that we needed to attack Iran.

honkostani 2mo ago

[dead]

Aurornis 2mo ago

Yes, but the impact will be small. The average consumer isn't purchasing a lot of products with a lot of RAM every year. Their 8GB of RAM phones will go up in price a little bit, but people aren't buying phones every year or even every other year. So if the price of the 8GB of LPDDR went from $40 to $160 and it's all passed on to the consumer buying a new phone every 4 years, that's an extra $30/year in spending. Most adults I know now use their phone for everything, so they're not buying new computers and laptops. They can wait 3 years for the market to settle before upgrading those, too. Even I'm a heavy buyer of tech products and RAM, and I would bet you that my family's annual food bill fluctuates by more than what I've had to pay for RAM prices growing.

smt88 2mo ago
Almost everything we consume is downstream of RAM pricing. I don’t buy a phone every year, but corporate workforces, streaming servers, cars, factories, etc. will all cost more next year.
- emacdona 2mo ago
  Oh, I hope you are right about cars. If one of the outcomes of the memory crunch is that manufacturers start making “dumb cars” again, it would almost make it all worthwhile.
  - brewdad 2mo ago
    Cars get developed on a cycle that spans a decade in many cases. Four or five years is pretty much the minimum. It could impact development cycles going forward but it will take a good while for that to be reflected in the marketplace. In the shorter term, you’ll probably see more “base” models on offer with some of the most intensive features disabled. There’s still going to be all of the telemetry stuff that makes them money through third parties though.
ragall 2mo ago
At the low end, where the vast majority of people are, even in the US, an extra $120 will double the price.

MattDamonSpace 2mo ago

Why are “demand and supply driven price increases” considered inflationary? Isn’t it just… prices?

applfanboysbgon 2mo ago
It's inflationary because this demand is backed by Monopoly money. OpenAI is promising to buy half the global supply of RAM with money they don't actually have, pricing out people who would like to make purchases with real money and not $1 trillion in debt.
odo1242 2mo ago
Any price increase can be considered inflationary. They usually don’t come down by all that much
pkulak 2mo ago
Prices rising is inflation.
- tripleee 2mo ago
  from what I understood it, at least originally, was used to mean monetary inflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_inflation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_inflation
  - inigyou 2mo ago
    No, that's copium from libertarians. I don't have an issue from them also using the word inflation to describe something getting bigger, but it's different from prices going up, which is the definition of inflation.
Dylan16807 2mo ago
It's inflationary when the effect is big enough to have a meaningful impact on the price of the average good.