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No AGI on the horizon and that ROI horizon approaching fast is going to make Ed Zitron a superstar. If Demis Hassabis got a Nobel prize for being a Project Man
by tcp_handshaker 3mo ago
No AGI on the horizon and that ROI horizon approaching fast is going to make Ed Zitron a superstar.
If Demis Hassabis got a Nobel prize for being a Project Manager, is Zitron up for the Nobel on Economy for excellence in economic forecast?
- ryeights 3mo agoEd Zitron has predicted 16 of the last 0 AI bubble bursts... But more seriously, this has to do with DeepMind falling way behind the frontier in intelligence and cost per task. There's basically no reason to use a Gemini model today.
- dminik 3mo agoTbf, he only has to get it right once.
- lxgr 3mo agoA stopped clock is also right twice a day.
- xnx 3mo agoBeing right at the wrong time is indistinguishable from being wrong.
- dminik 3mo agoMaybe. Was it wrong to call Madoff a fraudster in the early 2000s? Now, I don't think this is necessarily a Madoff situation, or even a dotcom one. Ed Zitron is certainly not Markopolos. Especially evidence wise. But, getting a date wrong doesn't necessarily mean that he's wrong in general.
- reducesuffering 3mo agoSuperstar? This Ed Zitron? "Based on estimates of their burn rate and historic analyses, I hypothesize that OpenAI will collapse in the next 12-24 months unless it raises more funding than in the history of the valley and creates an entirely new form of AI." -July 29, 2024 https://x.com/edzitron/status/1817955630784917548 https://x.com/edzitron/status/1817955630784917548
- root-parent 3mo agoAnd they did raise new funding as he predicted...Since July 2024, OpenAI has raised or secured roughly $170 billion in new capital. Numbers never see before. So yes its the one, and remarkably right so far.
- echelon 3mo agoYou can't imagine OpenAI being a multi-trillion dollar company? Open weights will drop costs, but distribution matters. OpenAI has that. Costs will come down. Deep entrenchment will not.
- hajile 3mo agoHow will costs come down? Each generation of model is more expensive to train and run than the last. More efficient hardware? That means throwing out billions of dollars worth of existing hardware and buying billions more in hardware. The cheapest hardware is the stuff they already have because spending $70B in hardware to halve a $2-4B electricity bill just doesn’t make financial sense (and that’s if doubling hardware efficiency can happen before they go under). If they cut costs by using smaller models, they are then racing to the bottom vs China which seems hard to do (especially with China’s cheap solar energy).
- reducesuffering 3mo agoNotice how he didn't say "I predict they will raise new funding", he predicted collapse, with the implicit retort that there's no way they will raise more funding than has ever been done before and invent a whole new AI. He was mocking the supposed things that would need to happen. He strongly assumed collapse. 2 years these charlatans have had their "imminent collapse" predictions repeatedly wrong, meanwhile all valuations, AGI progress in unsolved problems, and frontier leadership have been repeatedly vindicated that we are beginning ASI / the singularity.
- thereitgoes456 3mo agoOh, come on. He's not perfect, but compared to CEOs and researchers predicting AGI and complete economic upheaval every 3 months, he's looking very good. He's no more a charlatan than Altman is. His predictions (while often wrong) are at least somewhat justified and backed up by genuine scoops and original research. Altman goes on podcasts and talks about building Dyson spheres for energy.
- vessenes 3mo agoPublic warning: please don't trade on Ed's idiotic analyses. Or if you do, look at his track record so far, and apply the Kelley Criterion to your bet sizing.
- jvwww 3mo agoI don't understand any of the praise for Zitron. He is saying very obvious things and gets timelines wrong all the time. What's special about that?
- andsoitis 3mo ago> If Demis Hassabis got a Nobel prize for being a Project Manager His accomplishments are far beyond project manager. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis_Hassabis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis_Hassabis
- aborsy 3mo agoNobel was awarded due to project management work. There are many thousands of scientists with work much much better than what Demis has done.