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> The actual risk that the author does not even broach upon for investors... the thing that will actually torpedo this massive investment are the open source op

> The actual risk that the author does not even broach upon for investors... the thing that will actually torpedo this massive investment are the open source open weight chinese models that commoditize the entire endeavor. I disagree that "the entire endeavor" is inherently doomed for Anthropic and OpenAI. There will always be a very top end of the market running humongous models (like the recently-teased OpenAI Astra and perhaps including future versions of the existing Claude Mythos) that's too large-scale to be successfully commoditized, and that's exactly where the ongoing investments in AI datacenter compute and model training are most likely to pay off at some point. Video generation is another emerging AI area that seems to require large-scale compute, though the value proposition is definitely iffy there.

LarsDu88 2mo ago
There may be a market for the super models, but the reality is, the super models and the merely ok models already saturate on lower levels tasks. You don't need Fields math PhDs to make you a web app or plan your vacation. The remaining frontiers for high value ROI are ultra long horizon tasks, and lower cost faster inference. The former will rely on better architectures which will likely also get commoditized. The latter will probably be led by Chinese companies which already own most of the electronics manufacturing supply chain. Video generation was already tried by OpenAI and was enormous bust. It busted so hard the current leading proprietary videogen model is Chinese, and the best open weight videogen model is also Chinese.