4 ms·

Could be deliberate theater. The real plan is a containment and a slow economic collapse of Iran anyway. If the EU and Japan pay higher energy costs, that is a

by ftlps 2mo ago

Could be deliberate theater. The real plan is a containment and a slow economic collapse of Iran anyway. If the EU and Japan pay higher energy costs, that is an added bonus for Trump.

deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]
delfinom 2mo ago
Because isolation totally works, looks at Cuba and North Korea
- garciasn 2mo ago
  I mean, it sorta works; but, only because of sheer luck. Both of those countries have no real power. Cuba, in particular, has negative value on the global scene and NK only has somewhat empty threats of nuclear weapons. The only true fear is dealing with NK's populace flooding into SK or China during any regime collapse.
- advisedwang 2mo ago
  And Iran, for that matter
mittensc 2mo ago
> Could be deliberate theater. The real plan is a containment and a slow economic collapse of Iran anyway. Doesn't seem like there's a coherent plan. What you are saying is the old plan from long before Trump, that was torpedoed. Going back to that is saying they've failed in whatever this was. Also that is iran's plan as well, survive while the US suffers and eventually gives up like Vietnam ... > If the EU and Japan pay higher energy costs, that is an added bonus for Trump. US also pays added costs... and Trump is hurting from that The only one profiting is China since they've mostly transitioned away from oil...
- elias_t 2mo ago
  > The only one profiting is China since they've mostly transitioned away from oil... They had to use their own oil reserves to regulate the market, where they win is in soft power
  - dnautics 2mo ago
    > soft power hows that going for them?
    - elias_t 2mo ago
      > hows that going for them? "In its July 15 report — based on interviews with more than forty-two thousand people across thirty-six countries — Pew found that China is now viewed more favorably than the United States in most nations surveyed." [0] [0] https://www.cfr.org/articles/china-now-outranks-the-united-states-in-global-favorability-what-happened https://www.cfr.org/articles/china-now-outranks-the-united-s...
      - dnautics 2mo ago
        fta: "this is a story driven more by an American decline in soft power than by a Chinese surge." sonething tells me this will shift by the end of the decade
dnemmers 2mo ago
You say 'The Real Plan' like there was any amount of planning done in the first place. We've now found ourselves on top of a bucking bronco, with every 'exit' looking worse than previous status quo.
- 129486218 2mo ago
  There are short term and long term plans. The long term plans are: - Remove Ghaddafi and have chaos in Libya (accomplished). - Remove Saddam and have chaos in Iraq (accomplished). - Install a puppet regime in Egypt and suppress the muslim brotherhood (accomplished). - Remove Assad and install an ex al-Qaeda (note the irony) puppet (accomplished). - Have regime change in Iran (ongoing). Syria took nearly a decade. The US does not need outright military victory, it uses proxies and will at some point try to activate the Kurds or someone else. If Iran is destabilized enough to undermine the Caspian Sea coalition and get the resources of Turkmenistan, that is also a victory. Unless the other theory is right and the US wants to export its resources first. We don't know the exact plans, but the grand scheme is not Trump's idea. It goes back to the Bush era. It can be true that Trump was the useful idiot who actually signed off the Iran plan, which another president may not have done. But the plans are there, including Caspian sea plans from decades ago.
  - general1465 2mo ago
    Or there is no long term plan. Every leader is just larping as Leeroy Jenkins for short term political points which sometimes works (Crimea 2014) but unfortunately for Trump, Israel had wrong intel and whole assumption of regime change in Iran was build on invalid data. Kind of like Russians storming into Ukraine in 2022 thinking that it is Prague 1968 but it turned out into Afghanistan 1979 and then slowly mutated into World War 1 1914
flohofwoe 2mo ago
> The real plan is a containment and a slow economic collapse of Iran anyway. Quite optimistic to assume that there ever was a plan. Reminds me of the '4D chess' masterminds sitting in the Kremlin.
Sabinus 2mo ago
The only two people here still defending Trump's Iran war are doing it from fresh throwaway accounts. It's not looking good.
- blitzar 2mo ago
  He is going to buy them both a horse.

by ftlps 2mo ago

Could be deliberate theater. The real plan is a containment and a slow economic collapse of Iran anyway. If the EU and Japan pay higher energy costs, that is an added bonus for Trump.

deleted 2mo ago

[deleted]

delfinom 2mo ago

Because isolation totally works, looks at Cuba and North Korea

garciasn 2mo ago
I mean, it sorta works; but, only because of sheer luck. Both of those countries have no real power. Cuba, in particular, has negative value on the global scene and NK only has somewhat empty threats of nuclear weapons. The only true fear is dealing with NK's populace flooding into SK or China during any regime collapse.
advisedwang 2mo ago
And Iran, for that matter

mittensc 2mo ago

> Could be deliberate theater. The real plan is a containment and a slow economic collapse of Iran anyway. Doesn't seem like there's a coherent plan. What you are saying is the old plan from long before Trump, that was torpedoed. Going back to that is saying they've failed in whatever this was. Also that is iran's plan as well, survive while the US suffers and eventually gives up like Vietnam ... > If the EU and Japan pay higher energy costs, that is an added bonus for Trump. US also pays added costs... and Trump is hurting from that The only one profiting is China since they've mostly transitioned away from oil...

elias_t 2mo ago
> The only one profiting is China since they've mostly transitioned away from oil... They had to use their own oil reserves to regulate the market, where they win is in soft power
- dnautics 2mo ago
  > soft power hows that going for them?
  - elias_t 2mo ago
    > hows that going for them? "In its July 15 report — based on interviews with more than forty-two thousand people across thirty-six countries — Pew found that China is now viewed more favorably than the United States in most nations surveyed." [0] [0] https://www.cfr.org/articles/china-now-outranks-the-united-states-in-global-favorability-what-happened https://www.cfr.org/articles/china-now-outranks-the-united-s...
    - dnautics 2mo ago
      fta: "this is a story driven more by an American decline in soft power than by a Chinese surge." sonething tells me this will shift by the end of the decade

dnemmers 2mo ago

You say 'The Real Plan' like there was any amount of planning done in the first place. We've now found ourselves on top of a bucking bronco, with every 'exit' looking worse than previous status quo.

129486218 2mo ago
There are short term and long term plans. The long term plans are: - Remove Ghaddafi and have chaos in Libya (accomplished). - Remove Saddam and have chaos in Iraq (accomplished). - Install a puppet regime in Egypt and suppress the muslim brotherhood (accomplished). - Remove Assad and install an ex al-Qaeda (note the irony) puppet (accomplished). - Have regime change in Iran (ongoing). Syria took nearly a decade. The US does not need outright military victory, it uses proxies and will at some point try to activate the Kurds or someone else. If Iran is destabilized enough to undermine the Caspian Sea coalition and get the resources of Turkmenistan, that is also a victory. Unless the other theory is right and the US wants to export its resources first. We don't know the exact plans, but the grand scheme is not Trump's idea. It goes back to the Bush era. It can be true that Trump was the useful idiot who actually signed off the Iran plan, which another president may not have done. But the plans are there, including Caspian sea plans from decades ago.
- general1465 2mo ago
  Or there is no long term plan. Every leader is just larping as Leeroy Jenkins for short term political points which sometimes works (Crimea 2014) but unfortunately for Trump, Israel had wrong intel and whole assumption of regime change in Iran was build on invalid data. Kind of like Russians storming into Ukraine in 2022 thinking that it is Prague 1968 but it turned out into Afghanistan 1979 and then slowly mutated into World War 1 1914

flohofwoe 2mo ago

> The real plan is a containment and a slow economic collapse of Iran anyway. Quite optimistic to assume that there ever was a plan. Reminds me of the '4D chess' masterminds sitting in the Kremlin.

Sabinus 2mo ago

The only two people here still defending Trump's Iran war are doing it from fresh throwaway accounts. It's not looking good.

blitzar 2mo ago
He is going to buy them both a horse.