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What bet you can make consistently gives you at least 51% odds? As far as I know, the best you can do in a casino is 48%. If I plug 48% into the simulation, it

by butlike 2mo ago

What bet you can make consistently gives you at least 51% odds? As far as I know, the best you can do in a casino is 48%. If I plug 48% into the simulation, it states there is no Kelly edge for that bet.

TaiXi 2mo ago
[dead]
tahoemph999 2mo ago
The first time I ran across Kelly it was WRT card counting. There is some rare positive off the top video poker out there.
ToValueFunfetti 2mo ago
As far as casino games, you might find yourself in this situation with a half-decent poker hand or if you're counting cards in blackjack. Casinos don't hand out advantages over the house, which is why the former is coming from other players and the latter is against the rules. As the sibling comment notes, it is generally irrational to participate in casino games and the simulator is correct to tell you not to do so. This comes up more when you have (or at least believe you have) information that the counterparty doesn't have.
- andrepd 2mo ago
  On a casino? Play good poker and go for a low rake. Playing the house is always negative EV, by definition.
Lazare 2mo ago
Bets with a positive edge can be found most commonly via sports betting, poker games, and the stock market. Although note that most bets you can find via such methods do not have a positive edge, and the edge is not labelled. More generally, look for any area where bets can be made, and professionals exist who make their living winning such bets. There are professional poker players and sports gamblers; there are not professional roulette players.
- thom 2mo ago
  The problem with sports betting is that if you really want an edge (at least in something like soccer) you could easily end up dropping six figures a year on data licenses to have a decent model and be able to find worthwhile bets across all competitions. That puts a lot of pressure on the amount of capital you need to deploy, which rules out a lot of bookmakers. As you graduate to markets with more liquidity (i.e. Asia) you’ll also find your edge shrinking. Still obviously very doable, but it’s hard to guarantee stress free passive income this way.

by butlike 2mo ago

TaiXi 2mo ago

[dead]

tahoemph999 2mo ago

The first time I ran across Kelly it was WRT card counting. There is some rare positive off the top video poker out there.

ToValueFunfetti 2mo ago

As far as casino games, you might find yourself in this situation with a half-decent poker hand or if you're counting cards in blackjack. Casinos don't hand out advantages over the house, which is why the former is coming from other players and the latter is against the rules. As the sibling comment notes, it is generally irrational to participate in casino games and the simulator is correct to tell you not to do so. This comes up more when you have (or at least believe you have) information that the counterparty doesn't have.

andrepd 2mo ago
On a casino? Play good poker and go for a low rake. Playing the house is always negative EV, by definition.

Lazare 2mo ago

Bets with a positive edge can be found most commonly via sports betting, poker games, and the stock market. Although note that most bets you can find via such methods do not have a positive edge, and the edge is not labelled. More generally, look for any area where bets can be made, and professionals exist who make their living winning such bets. There are professional poker players and sports gamblers; there are not professional roulette players.

thom 2mo ago
The problem with sports betting is that if you really want an edge (at least in something like soccer) you could easily end up dropping six figures a year on data licenses to have a decent model and be able to find worthwhile bets across all competitions. That puts a lot of pressure on the amount of capital you need to deploy, which rules out a lot of bookmakers. As you graduate to markets with more liquidity (i.e. Asia) you’ll also find your edge shrinking. Still obviously very doable, but it’s hard to guarantee stress free passive income this way.