3 ms·
> If models are becoming commodities, and the main bottleneck is actually serving them at scale, Anthropic does not appear particularly well positioned. That h
by keeda 2mo ago
> If models are becoming commodities, and the main bottleneck is actually serving them at scale, Anthropic does not appear particularly well positioned.
That has been my thesis ever since Dario went on about how difficult it is to forecast capacity on the Dwarkesh podcast right about the time Claude started having 9's comparable to GitHub's.
Even as an outsider, seeing all the cloud providers bemoan their lack of capacity and their growing backlogs, I could tell compute capacity was already the biggest constraint on industry growth and that it would be very hard to come by in the future... which also probably made it the only moat.
And now we see Anthropic making very expensive deals with competitors to secure the necessary capacity. Claude likely still has enough momentum to make it worthwhile. But I can't believe Dario, probably the most AI-pilled of them all, would under-estimate demand so severely.
- disgruntledphd2 2mo ago> But I can't believe Dario, probably the most AI-pilled of them all, would under-estimate demand so severely. To be fair, this mess up actually increases my respect for him, as he focused on making sure that they could continue to run the business under reasonable assumptions rather than YOLOing compute into existence like OpenAI.
- keeda 2mo agoMy surprise is rooted in the point that he seems to be the biggest believer in AI there is -- to the extent the label "zealot" gets bandied about at times -- and he still underestimated the demand they would get. I would not have classified Altman as a bigger believer than Dario. My guess is OpenAI, having the first mover advantage and the bulk of AI traffic for a very long time, could gauge the trends much better than anyone else.