4 ms·

But so is German industry - every day in the news either insolvency or workforce reduction and moving production to Eastern Europe - main reason often stated "e

by novaRom 2mo ago

But so is German industry - every day in the news either insolvency or workforce reduction and moving production to Eastern Europe - main reason often stated "expensive Energy". I wonder what are the stats for industrial production in 2025 or total energy consumption in Germany?

Helmut10001 2mo ago
You make it sound like there is a causality here. I would be careful. German GDP is declining for other reasons, not for their commitment to renwables. Also, by all measures, living in Germany still means you get one of the most comfortable, secure and free lives on earth. I wouldn't give up on Germany so fast. They still know how to work and often work, even if there is no reason to work (i.e looking at their current regulations, which rather motivate you to _not_ work).
- VorpalWay 2mo ago
  Arguably Sweden (and possibly the other Nordic countries too) are even better places to live (or at least equally good). Well, as long as you can stand the climate and the lack of sun in the winter. We have right to roam in nature here, which is quite rare across the world (and even compared to the few other countries that have something similar, the Swedish variant is stronger). I wouldn't trade that for anything.
  - puchatek 2mo ago
    I don't think the comment above meant to say there's nothing better than Germany. Instead the claim was that 1) Germany's decline is not due to renewables and 2) despite the decline it's still a pretty good place to live.
- WarmWash 2mo ago
  >They still know how to work and often work, even if there is no reason to work (i.e looking at their current regulations, which rather motivate you to _not_ work). Ummm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_annual_labor_hours https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a... At least according to the list, Americans work ten weeks more a year than their German counterpart. I would bet everything that life, at least right now, is comfy. But I don't see it as remotely sustainable.
  - jltsiren 2mo ago
    Ten weeks more, if you average over workers. You get a smaller difference if you average over working-age people. Germans are more likely to choose a part-time job voluntarily, while Americans are more likely to be completely outside the workforce.
marcosdumay 2mo ago
Looks stable: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-mom https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-m... Of course, stable is probably bad here. But it's not declining.
- Abimelex 2mo ago
  also the raised energy prices are fake news regarding indutrial prices, which are differently taxed in Germany than consumer prices. https://www.smard.de/page/en/topic-article/5892/216044/industrial-electricity-price-trends https://www.smard.de/page/en/topic-article/5892/216044/indus...
_visgean 2mo ago
i am pretty sure its not energy that domaines the move. eg skoda is now way more profitable than rest of VW. The cost of employment is way higher in DE..
gregorygoc 2mo ago
There’s nothing wrong with creative destruction
hdgvhicv 2mo ago
U.K. energy is expensive because it’s all based on the cost of gas. Onshore wind and solar is about £40-50 Offshore wind about £60 Gas about £120 That’s generation cost, before subsidies and levees But we still haven’t put in an emergency legislation to make it easier to build cheaper energy.
- tialaramex 2mo ago
  It also takes time. You've doubtless seen headlines about the Contracts for Difference Allocation Rounds 7 and 7a, or perhaps even Round 8 taking place now. But those headlines are about the step where you find out who won these auctions because that's when that magic price number is known, wind power for £68.35 per MWh or whatever. Going from the fun headline to actual contract signing in which there's a legal promise to actually try to make electricity and get paid, takes several months. After they've signed they begin the actual work, which still includes planning not just the mechanical aspects. Just building a solar farm might take 12 months, and wind farms are often slower. AR6 took place in 2024, you'd have read headlines back then about some excellent solar farms, getting paid about £50 per MWh. First, those are 2012 prices, for comparison reasons they choose a base year and then calculate inflation adjusted pricing in reality but I bet that £50 figure was what you saw in a headline, of course the solar farm didn't exist in 2012, so £50 per MWh was never the real price. More importantly though, those solar farms weren't built in 2024. The plan when the bids went in, said 2026/27 for some and 2027/28 for the majority. A few of those AR6 solar farms (by no means the majority) were live in time for the July sunshine, in 2026. But you've already read headlines about AR7, and like I said maybe even AR8. A big boost in practice is home install. A big business can take six years to do contract paperwork, get something signed off, build it and then commission it. A home owner is angry after six weeks without work done. Where are my fucking panels? You were going to install solar panels, make it happen! So lots of individuals and small businesses which own a building with a roof installed a few panels, they might add up to only 5kW each but if a million people do that it's 5GW of nameplate electricity generation, a sizeable fraction of UK usage for several hours per day.
  - hdgvhicv 2mo ago
    I suspect plug in solar will make a massive difference. Plug in batteries would be even more but there’s too many people making too much money for that, at least this year.
freehorse 2mo ago
Discussion about nuclear reactors aside, energy in germany became expensive when they cut off russian gas and they had no good alternative. There was no other source of cheap fossil fuels for electricity production. If anything, renewables are promoted as a solution to that energy problem. The discussion about fossil fuels vs renewables is a bit different within countries which produce fossil fuels than within those that don't.
- RandomLensman 2mo ago
  Germany cut off Russian gas? Gazprom suspended supply indefinitely via NS1 before it was destroyed.
  - freehorse 2mo ago
    When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo.
    - RandomLensman 2mo ago
      What German political decision back then do you mean that cut off supply via NS1?
      - freehorse 2mo ago
        Political decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast.
        RandomLensman 2mo ago
        Still, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly.
plastic-enjoyer 2mo ago
> But so is German industry - every day in the news either insolvency or workforce reduction and moving production to Eastern Europe - main reason often stated "expensive Energy". I wonder what are the stats for industrial production in 2025 or total energy consumption in Germany? Every First World country seems to be following the path from industrialisation, through deindustrialisation (which, when I was at school, was still called ‘structural change’), to a service-based society. It seems to be the price we pay for economic prosperity and cheap goods - and it is not the first time in Germany this happens.
- bluGill 2mo ago
  > Every First World country seems to be following the path from industrialisation, through deindustrialisation Are you sure? Jobs are no longer in industrial companies, and that isn't where the growth is. However when I look at the numbers I see heavy industry output is still growing.
- marcosdumay 2mo ago
  People don't like factory work. Given options, they will choose to do some less physically wearing work that pays more, and pay somebody else to do it. Robots are the answer to reindustrialize the developed world, but that necessarily keeps industry smaller than services.
  - themaninthedark 2mo ago
    I don't think you have set foot in a factory recently. Factory work isn't generally physically demanding, more tedious & repetitive than anything. It's air conditioned, generally pays a lot more than minimum wage and has benefits.
    - bijowo1676 2mo ago
      modern factory work is really not much different from fast-food chains. You have a job description, the standard operations manual, and you operate the machine that does most of the work. All complicated work is either outsourced to machines, enterprise systems, or architects/chief engineers that setup the whole system on day 1. all day 2 operations are mundane blue collar work, just like warehouse work or fast-food work with no viable path for career growth
Tade0 2mo ago
Hailing from Germany's eastern neighbor, where part of the industry went to and where energy is even more expensive, I call BS. The main reason Germany was so hooked on gas wasn't because Hans Müller needed to run his Bosch washer-dryer and heat his home to a comfortable 24°C. It was because natural gas is an great source of hydrogen, which in turn serves as feedstock for the production of all kinds of chemicals used in industry. That was the engine of Germany's industry, not just energy. Energy has a whole spectrum of solutions - not the case with hydrogen.
- tialaramex 2mo ago
  > Energy has a whole spectrum of solutions - not the case with hydrogen. Oh my, where ever else will we be able to find hydrogen, the (checks notes) tenth most common element on our planet ? No, there's actually plenty of hydrogen, what people who say they "need" methane to make hydrogen actually mean is that they don't want to pay what this really costs.
martin_a 2mo ago
More often that not I think this is a cheap excuse. When you look at struggling companies (take the car industry for example), I think the issue is more about missing innovation and building things that people don't want or can't afford anymore in Germany.
- jabl 2mo ago
  Given how European car companies, German in particular, are sticking their heads in the sand and lobbying the commission to delay the EV transition, I suspect the end game will be that the manufacturers will be bought by the Chinese car companies. The future VW, BMW, Mercedes etc will be Chinese cars with the traditional marque on the hood. Maybe Porsche can survive by going independent, downsizing drastically, and selling 911's to the nostalgic faithful.
  - martin_a 2mo ago
    If you look at Volvo or smart, we are probably already on that route. Had great hopes for the ID.Polo but from what I've seen it's just another vehicle that gets really expensive for not that much of a car...
bjourne 2mo ago
Do you know of any major German industry for which energy costs amounts to even 10% of the labor costs? It's a rhetorical question intended to engage the common sense pathways of your cognitive system.
- moooo99 2mo ago
  Realistically, without running the numbers, only few industries come to mind that may come close. Chemical manufacturing, steel production and maybe glass production as well. For the remainder, the wage costs - more specifically - the overhead costs are the true killer. If you want to pay someone 80k a year in Germany, the actual costs are closer to 100k a year in purely salary overhead costs, not to mention the other bureaucratic overhead in Germany
  - Abimelex 2mo ago
    it's less more around 94k - IMHO the overhead is the bureaucracy that basically forces you to employ a large amount of non-productive workforce in larger companies just for compliance topics.
- WarmWash 2mo ago
  Considering Germany wiffed on the tech boom, and still relies on the same industry as 50 years ago, I'm not sure if you are gesturing that 10% is way too small or way to large. Their three largest exports are all very energy intensive (cars, machinery, chemicals).
- throw-qqqqq 2mo ago
  What is your point? There are thousands of such companies in Germany, called Energy-Intensive Industries. Think chemicals, mining, materials, paper pulp, glass, ceramics etc. Stats available here: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Industrie-Verarbeitendes-Gewerbe/produktionsindex-energieintensive-branchen.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Indus... (unfortunately only available in German)

by novaRom 2mo ago

Helmut10001 2mo ago

You make it sound like there is a causality here. I would be careful. German GDP is declining for other reasons, not for their commitment to renwables. Also, by all measures, living in Germany still means you get one of the most comfortable, secure and free lives on earth. I wouldn't give up on Germany so fast. They still know how to work and often work, even if there is no reason to work (i.e looking at their current regulations, which rather motivate you to _not_ work).

VorpalWay 2mo ago
Arguably Sweden (and possibly the other Nordic countries too) are even better places to live (or at least equally good). Well, as long as you can stand the climate and the lack of sun in the winter. We have right to roam in nature here, which is quite rare across the world (and even compared to the few other countries that have something similar, the Swedish variant is stronger). I wouldn't trade that for anything.
- puchatek 2mo ago
  I don't think the comment above meant to say there's nothing better than Germany. Instead the claim was that 1) Germany's decline is not due to renewables and 2) despite the decline it's still a pretty good place to live.
WarmWash 2mo ago
>They still know how to work and often work, even if there is no reason to work (i.e looking at their current regulations, which rather motivate you to _not_ work). Ummm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_annual_labor_hours https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a... At least according to the list, Americans work ten weeks more a year than their German counterpart. I would bet everything that life, at least right now, is comfy. But I don't see it as remotely sustainable.
- jltsiren 2mo ago
  Ten weeks more, if you average over workers. You get a smaller difference if you average over working-age people. Germans are more likely to choose a part-time job voluntarily, while Americans are more likely to be completely outside the workforce.

marcosdumay 2mo ago

Looks stable: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-mom https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-m... Of course, stable is probably bad here. But it's not declining.

Abimelex 2mo ago
also the raised energy prices are fake news regarding indutrial prices, which are differently taxed in Germany than consumer prices. https://www.smard.de/page/en/topic-article/5892/216044/industrial-electricity-price-trends https://www.smard.de/page/en/topic-article/5892/216044/indus...

_visgean 2mo ago

i am pretty sure its not energy that domaines the move. eg skoda is now way more profitable than rest of VW. The cost of employment is way higher in DE..

gregorygoc 2mo ago

There’s nothing wrong with creative destruction

hdgvhicv 2mo ago

U.K. energy is expensive because it’s all based on the cost of gas. Onshore wind and solar is about £40-50 Offshore wind about £60 Gas about £120 That’s generation cost, before subsidies and levees But we still haven’t put in an emergency legislation to make it easier to build cheaper energy.

tialaramex 2mo ago
It also takes time. You've doubtless seen headlines about the Contracts for Difference Allocation Rounds 7 and 7a, or perhaps even Round 8 taking place now. But those headlines are about the step where you find out who won these auctions because that's when that magic price number is known, wind power for £68.35 per MWh or whatever. Going from the fun headline to actual contract signing in which there's a legal promise to actually try to make electricity and get paid, takes several months. After they've signed they begin the actual work, which still includes planning not just the mechanical aspects. Just building a solar farm might take 12 months, and wind farms are often slower. AR6 took place in 2024, you'd have read headlines back then about some excellent solar farms, getting paid about £50 per MWh. First, those are 2012 prices, for comparison reasons they choose a base year and then calculate inflation adjusted pricing in reality but I bet that £50 figure was what you saw in a headline, of course the solar farm didn't exist in 2012, so £50 per MWh was never the real price. More importantly though, those solar farms weren't built in 2024. The plan when the bids went in, said 2026/27 for some and 2027/28 for the majority. A few of those AR6 solar farms (by no means the majority) were live in time for the July sunshine, in 2026. But you've already read headlines about AR7, and like I said maybe even AR8. A big boost in practice is home install. A big business can take six years to do contract paperwork, get something signed off, build it and then commission it. A home owner is angry after six weeks without work done. Where are my fucking panels? You were going to install solar panels, make it happen! So lots of individuals and small businesses which own a building with a roof installed a few panels, they might add up to only 5kW each but if a million people do that it's 5GW of nameplate electricity generation, a sizeable fraction of UK usage for several hours per day.
- hdgvhicv 2mo ago
  I suspect plug in solar will make a massive difference. Plug in batteries would be even more but there’s too many people making too much money for that, at least this year.

freehorse 2mo ago

Discussion about nuclear reactors aside, energy in germany became expensive when they cut off russian gas and they had no good alternative. There was no other source of cheap fossil fuels for electricity production. If anything, renewables are promoted as a solution to that energy problem. The discussion about fossil fuels vs renewables is a bit different within countries which produce fossil fuels than within those that don't.

RandomLensman 2mo ago
Germany cut off Russian gas? Gazprom suspended supply indefinitely via NS1 before it was destroyed.
- freehorse 2mo ago
  When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo.
  - RandomLensman 2mo ago
    What German political decision back then do you mean that cut off supply via NS1?
    - freehorse 2mo ago
      Political decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast.
      - RandomLensman 2mo ago
        Still, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly.

plastic-enjoyer 2mo ago

> But so is German industry - every day in the news either insolvency or workforce reduction and moving production to Eastern Europe - main reason often stated "expensive Energy". I wonder what are the stats for industrial production in 2025 or total energy consumption in Germany? Every First World country seems to be following the path from industrialisation, through deindustrialisation (which, when I was at school, was still called ‘structural change’), to a service-based society. It seems to be the price we pay for economic prosperity and cheap goods - and it is not the first time in Germany this happens.

bluGill 2mo ago
> Every First World country seems to be following the path from industrialisation, through deindustrialisation Are you sure? Jobs are no longer in industrial companies, and that isn't where the growth is. However when I look at the numbers I see heavy industry output is still growing.
marcosdumay 2mo ago
People don't like factory work. Given options, they will choose to do some less physically wearing work that pays more, and pay somebody else to do it. Robots are the answer to reindustrialize the developed world, but that necessarily keeps industry smaller than services.
- themaninthedark 2mo ago
  I don't think you have set foot in a factory recently. Factory work isn't generally physically demanding, more tedious & repetitive than anything. It's air conditioned, generally pays a lot more than minimum wage and has benefits.
  - bijowo1676 2mo ago
    modern factory work is really not much different from fast-food chains. You have a job description, the standard operations manual, and you operate the machine that does most of the work. All complicated work is either outsourced to machines, enterprise systems, or architects/chief engineers that setup the whole system on day 1. all day 2 operations are mundane blue collar work, just like warehouse work or fast-food work with no viable path for career growth

Tade0 2mo ago

Hailing from Germany's eastern neighbor, where part of the industry went to and where energy is even more expensive, I call BS. The main reason Germany was so hooked on gas wasn't because Hans Müller needed to run his Bosch washer-dryer and heat his home to a comfortable 24°C. It was because natural gas is an great source of hydrogen, which in turn serves as feedstock for the production of all kinds of chemicals used in industry. That was the engine of Germany's industry, not just energy. Energy has a whole spectrum of solutions - not the case with hydrogen.

tialaramex 2mo ago
> Energy has a whole spectrum of solutions - not the case with hydrogen. Oh my, where ever else will we be able to find hydrogen, the (checks notes) tenth most common element on our planet ? No, there's actually plenty of hydrogen, what people who say they "need" methane to make hydrogen actually mean is that they don't want to pay what this really costs.

martin_a 2mo ago

More often that not I think this is a cheap excuse. When you look at struggling companies (take the car industry for example), I think the issue is more about missing innovation and building things that people don't want or can't afford anymore in Germany.

jabl 2mo ago
Given how European car companies, German in particular, are sticking their heads in the sand and lobbying the commission to delay the EV transition, I suspect the end game will be that the manufacturers will be bought by the Chinese car companies. The future VW, BMW, Mercedes etc will be Chinese cars with the traditional marque on the hood. Maybe Porsche can survive by going independent, downsizing drastically, and selling 911's to the nostalgic faithful.
- martin_a 2mo ago
  If you look at Volvo or smart, we are probably already on that route. Had great hopes for the ID.Polo but from what I've seen it's just another vehicle that gets really expensive for not that much of a car...

bjourne 2mo ago

Do you know of any major German industry for which energy costs amounts to even 10% of the labor costs? It's a rhetorical question intended to engage the common sense pathways of your cognitive system.

moooo99 2mo ago
Realistically, without running the numbers, only few industries come to mind that may come close. Chemical manufacturing, steel production and maybe glass production as well. For the remainder, the wage costs - more specifically - the overhead costs are the true killer. If you want to pay someone 80k a year in Germany, the actual costs are closer to 100k a year in purely salary overhead costs, not to mention the other bureaucratic overhead in Germany
- Abimelex 2mo ago
  it's less more around 94k - IMHO the overhead is the bureaucracy that basically forces you to employ a large amount of non-productive workforce in larger companies just for compliance topics.
WarmWash 2mo ago
Considering Germany wiffed on the tech boom, and still relies on the same industry as 50 years ago, I'm not sure if you are gesturing that 10% is way too small or way to large. Their three largest exports are all very energy intensive (cars, machinery, chemicals).
throw-qqqqq 2mo ago
What is your point? There are thousands of such companies in Germany, called Energy-Intensive Industries. Think chemicals, mining, materials, paper pulp, glass, ceramics etc. Stats available here: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Industrie-Verarbeitendes-Gewerbe/produktionsindex-energieintensive-branchen.html https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Indus... (unfortunately only available in German)