4 ms·

Or possibly the return of some heavy industry?

ljf 2mo ago
I always wondered that - but will it be economical to have the plants not working in the months of the year that the energy isn't free?
- colechristensen 2mo ago
  It's not "will it" it's just a series of balances, capital costs vs energy costs. If there's enough free energy and automation there gets to be a point where there will be people will start to disregard the capital costs as well and run 0ish input cost businesses with a vertical stack of stuff that they produced with 0ish input cost.
- bluGill 2mo ago
  Maybe. Depends on the plant. Nearly every plant goes through shutdowns for maintenance. If energy is a large cost they work with the utility (and vice versa - when the utility needs to shut down a big power plant they need industry to shutdown something at the same time). Many of them take December off for maintenance. My company has long pour iron in the foundry only at night: we get enough of a discount on power as to be worth paying the workers extra to work the night shift (I last checked this 15 years ago - I would not be surprised if this has changed now that the local power is mostly wind and thus has different factors) Of course every plant is different. There is a big difference between "batch" processes where you can shutdown after any batch, and "continuous" processes where startup/shutdown is a large process since the machines depend on running. They have different abilities to respond. Some plants/processes use more energy than others - obviously if they don't use much energy they don't care about free energy much either. The more energy a plant uses the more they are interested in cheap energy. In some cases a less efficient process may suddenly become better when solar is "free"
epistasis 2mo ago
I think the challenges for heavy industry aren't as much the cost of energy, as it is the capital cost, and a workforce that has lots of options for higher paying jobs. Heavy industries are usually pretty low on the value chain in economies. They do not provide much return on capital, compared to the high tech options and service options that are available in the US, but not available anywhere else in the world. The rest of the (non-European) world dreams of the economic opportunities that are possible in the US, from Silicon Valley tech, to biotech, to the financial opportunities. China has been trying to climb up the value chain ladder for decades, and is slowly getting there. It's mystifying to me why people are fantasizing about climbing down the value chain in the US, to being poorer, and allocating capital to things with lower return on investment. I just don't get it! What's the appeal?
- 8note 2mo ago
  > I just don't get it! What's the appeal? its the k shaped economy. the big opportunities are great if you can get into them, but otherwise all there is is serving coffee to the wealthy. People are already poorer without a ladder or fulfilling work at the bottom
  - epistasis 2mo ago
    I could see that, if people actually wanted to work in those jobs in large numbers. Yet, poll after poll shows that people don't want to work in the jobs, they just want heavy industry and manufacturing to return to being a big part of the US economy. People understand that these jobs are worse than what's currently available, yet for some reason want them here.
    - bluGill 2mo ago
      I want those to be automated. I don't want anyone to have to work in a steel mill - it is hot dirty work that wears out your body. I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy. However those plants are mostly automated and I know we will need them in some worst case scenarios.
  - s1artibartfast 2mo ago
    Why do people think steel mills would pay better or be more attractive than serving coffee. Hard jobs already exist and are in high demand.
- ericd 2mo ago
  Well, manufacturing capacity was the basis of US military dominance, which was the underpinning of the post WW2 US-led world order. That's pretty clearly eroded, and we're not sure we could win in a war against China, especially not a full-on war of attrition, and they're not sure about that either, and so they're steadily getting more willing to throw their weight around geopolitically, trying to get a setup that's more favorable to them. The difference in shipbuilding capacity is staggering, for example. Even if each of our ships had a 10-1 kill ratio, we'd still run out of ships first. My read on why we want it back, anyway. I'm sure there are other reasons, too.

ljf 2mo ago

I always wondered that - but will it be economical to have the plants not working in the months of the year that the energy isn't free?

colechristensen 2mo ago
It's not "will it" it's just a series of balances, capital costs vs energy costs. If there's enough free energy and automation there gets to be a point where there will be people will start to disregard the capital costs as well and run 0ish input cost businesses with a vertical stack of stuff that they produced with 0ish input cost.
bluGill 2mo ago
Maybe. Depends on the plant. Nearly every plant goes through shutdowns for maintenance. If energy is a large cost they work with the utility (and vice versa - when the utility needs to shut down a big power plant they need industry to shutdown something at the same time). Many of them take December off for maintenance. My company has long pour iron in the foundry only at night: we get enough of a discount on power as to be worth paying the workers extra to work the night shift (I last checked this 15 years ago - I would not be surprised if this has changed now that the local power is mostly wind and thus has different factors) Of course every plant is different. There is a big difference between "batch" processes where you can shutdown after any batch, and "continuous" processes where startup/shutdown is a large process since the machines depend on running. They have different abilities to respond. Some plants/processes use more energy than others - obviously if they don't use much energy they don't care about free energy much either. The more energy a plant uses the more they are interested in cheap energy. In some cases a less efficient process may suddenly become better when solar is "free"

epistasis 2mo ago

I think the challenges for heavy industry aren't as much the cost of energy, as it is the capital cost, and a workforce that has lots of options for higher paying jobs. Heavy industries are usually pretty low on the value chain in economies. They do not provide much return on capital, compared to the high tech options and service options that are available in the US, but not available anywhere else in the world. The rest of the (non-European) world dreams of the economic opportunities that are possible in the US, from Silicon Valley tech, to biotech, to the financial opportunities. China has been trying to climb up the value chain ladder for decades, and is slowly getting there. It's mystifying to me why people are fantasizing about climbing down the value chain in the US, to being poorer, and allocating capital to things with lower return on investment. I just don't get it! What's the appeal?

8note 2mo ago
> I just don't get it! What's the appeal? its the k shaped economy. the big opportunities are great if you can get into them, but otherwise all there is is serving coffee to the wealthy. People are already poorer without a ladder or fulfilling work at the bottom
- epistasis 2mo ago
  I could see that, if people actually wanted to work in those jobs in large numbers. Yet, poll after poll shows that people don't want to work in the jobs, they just want heavy industry and manufacturing to return to being a big part of the US economy. People understand that these jobs are worse than what's currently available, yet for some reason want them here.
  - bluGill 2mo ago
    I want those to be automated. I don't want anyone to have to work in a steel mill - it is hot dirty work that wears out your body. I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy. However those plants are mostly automated and I know we will need them in some worst case scenarios.
- s1artibartfast 2mo ago
  Why do people think steel mills would pay better or be more attractive than serving coffee. Hard jobs already exist and are in high demand.
ericd 2mo ago
Well, manufacturing capacity was the basis of US military dominance, which was the underpinning of the post WW2 US-led world order. That's pretty clearly eroded, and we're not sure we could win in a war against China, especially not a full-on war of attrition, and they're not sure about that either, and so they're steadily getting more willing to throw their weight around geopolitically, trying to get a setup that's more favorable to them. The difference in shipbuilding capacity is staggering, for example. Even if each of our ships had a 10-1 kill ratio, we'd still run out of ships first. My read on why we want it back, anyway. I'm sure there are other reasons, too.