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Don’t forget there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated. T

Don’t forget there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated. The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse. I think it is too early to make predictions with AI. I mean the sentiment here is either it will dry up the world and kill us all or transcend humanity, there’s no gray area. I don’t want to fall into the emotional sieve that seems to drive everything.

4fggfd 2mo ago
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belZaah 2mo ago
What’s weird is how emotional people get on this. I told publicly (because I was asked, not out of an obligation to have an opinion), that the prices we pay for LLMs are likely to go up because that’s what happens when the ratio of operational assets to foreign capital drops due to the capital having been turned into heat rather than operational assets. The grief I got from people, dear Lord…
- klodolph 2mo ago
  I think that opinion is as reasonable as any. I feel compelled to argue against it (I even thought out the arguments in my head!) but my compulsion to have an opinion on HN is a disease, and you made a point of saying that you gave the opinion because asked.
mapping365 2mo ago
That's the financial stakes here. That's why it's all or nothing. You're spending on a level that is only justified by the bonafide machine god being ushered into existence, not productivity or coding tools (and on relatively short time horizon). So if this doesn't change the near term trajectory of humanity to a parabolic move upward there is going to be a lot of economic pain. It's not just the spending, it's that the expectations for the returns to justify them are in a relatively short period of time.
- klodolph 2mo ago
  What’s your reasoning for saying that the spending level requires that level of justification?
  - mapping365 2mo ago
    I think these large numbers are casually thrown about, but the real meaning is mind boggling. 1 trillion dollars is the entire US defense budget - aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, health care, salaries, stealth fighters ect. The hidden AI debt alone is more than that https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-giants-hidden-debts-soar-to-1.65tn-on-opaque-ai-funding https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-gia... just for five tech giants (not to mention all the other smaller players like neoclouds)
    - refurb 2mo ago
      By that measure it doesn’t sound like that much. You’re talking about about an amount that is a 13% of the total US government spending, of which is 20% of the entire US GDP. I’m not saying it’s insignificant but it’s only a few percent of the US GDP and it represents spending over several years.
      - mapping365 2mo ago
        I mean that's so far, it continues to grow exponentially larger with each quarter. The debt issuance for the first half looks to be crowding out US treasuries in the bond market - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-debt-competing-with-treasuries-is-adding-to-lofty-us-yields https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-deb... - that's an extremely large amount of debt. And it's still getting larger and larger each quarter.
        refurb 2mo ago
        I would question the idea that highly industry consolidated debt is competing with risk free debt issued by the US government. Those are two very different products. And while the quarter by quarter growth may seem astonishing it very different saying “debt levels today are alarming” versus “if this trend continues debt levels will be alarming”
JumpCrisscross 2mo ago
> there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated In what bubble does this pressure exist?
vanagandr 2mo ago
How do you stay out of it all, if at all?
grey-area 2mo ago
I feel obliged to step in here to say there is a grey area where these are useful tools for some applications but not on the path to AGI. Unfortunately the hype machine has far outstripped their capabilities so far, and the amount of money spent doesn’t look like being recouped, so somebody is going to lose money, as people lost money on the overpriced spacex ipo (overpriced because of AI).
riffraff 2mo ago
> The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse I'm inclined to think the collapse has already started but nobody wants to see it yet. In the last few weeks SP500 is down, kospi is down, nikkei is down, US inflation is still high and growth is softer than expected. Hyper inflated stocks (Tesla, Nvidia, SpaceX) are deflating. US bonds are at a 20 year high. Interesting times ahead.

4fggfd 2mo ago

[dead]

belZaah 2mo ago

What’s weird is how emotional people get on this. I told publicly (because I was asked, not out of an obligation to have an opinion), that the prices we pay for LLMs are likely to go up because that’s what happens when the ratio of operational assets to foreign capital drops due to the capital having been turned into heat rather than operational assets. The grief I got from people, dear Lord…

klodolph 2mo ago
I think that opinion is as reasonable as any. I feel compelled to argue against it (I even thought out the arguments in my head!) but my compulsion to have an opinion on HN is a disease, and you made a point of saying that you gave the opinion because asked.

mapping365 2mo ago

That's the financial stakes here. That's why it's all or nothing. You're spending on a level that is only justified by the bonafide machine god being ushered into existence, not productivity or coding tools (and on relatively short time horizon). So if this doesn't change the near term trajectory of humanity to a parabolic move upward there is going to be a lot of economic pain. It's not just the spending, it's that the expectations for the returns to justify them are in a relatively short period of time.

klodolph 2mo ago
What’s your reasoning for saying that the spending level requires that level of justification?
- mapping365 2mo ago
  I think these large numbers are casually thrown about, but the real meaning is mind boggling. 1 trillion dollars is the entire US defense budget - aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, health care, salaries, stealth fighters ect. The hidden AI debt alone is more than that https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-giants-hidden-debts-soar-to-1.65tn-on-opaque-ai-funding https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-gia... just for five tech giants (not to mention all the other smaller players like neoclouds)
  - refurb 2mo ago
    By that measure it doesn’t sound like that much. You’re talking about about an amount that is a 13% of the total US government spending, of which is 20% of the entire US GDP. I’m not saying it’s insignificant but it’s only a few percent of the US GDP and it represents spending over several years.
    - mapping365 2mo ago
      I mean that's so far, it continues to grow exponentially larger with each quarter. The debt issuance for the first half looks to be crowding out US treasuries in the bond market - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-debt-competing-with-treasuries-is-adding-to-lofty-us-yields https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-deb... - that's an extremely large amount of debt. And it's still getting larger and larger each quarter.
      - refurb 2mo ago
        I would question the idea that highly industry consolidated debt is competing with risk free debt issued by the US government. Those are two very different products. And while the quarter by quarter growth may seem astonishing it very different saying “debt levels today are alarming” versus “if this trend continues debt levels will be alarming”

JumpCrisscross 2mo ago

> there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated In what bubble does this pressure exist?

vanagandr 2mo ago

How do you stay out of it all, if at all?

grey-area 2mo ago

I feel obliged to step in here to say there is a grey area where these are useful tools for some applications but not on the path to AGI. Unfortunately the hype machine has far outstripped their capabilities so far, and the amount of money spent doesn’t look like being recouped, so somebody is going to lose money, as people lost money on the overpriced spacex ipo (overpriced because of AI).

riffraff 2mo ago

> The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse I'm inclined to think the collapse has already started but nobody wants to see it yet. In the last few weeks SP500 is down, kospi is down, nikkei is down, US inflation is still high and growth is softer than expected. Hyper inflated stocks (Tesla, Nvidia, SpaceX) are deflating. US bonds are at a 20 year high. Interesting times ahead.