5 ms·

A while ago I was thinking, “Gee, AI is so complicated, how can I keep up with the landscape?” After reading these articles go by so often, it feels like what

A while ago I was thinking, “Gee, AI is so complicated, how can I keep up with the landscape?” After reading these articles go by so often, it feels like what I actually can’t keep up with is the bond market. To paraphrase Trotsky, you may not be interested in the bond market, but the bond market is interested in you. I want to be able to read the signals at the bottom of this article, and divine some kind of prediction that can guide me… I don’t know, to choose whether I should buy a house or change the investment strategy in my retirement fund or something. But I’m just seeing all these signals go by, waiting for the story to be written, which only happens when the dust settles. I guess I’ll go back to not understanding AI, instead of not understanding the bond market.

mrloopex 2mo ago
Don’t forget there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated. The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse. I think it is too early to make predictions with AI. I mean the sentiment here is either it will dry up the world and kill us all or transcend humanity, there’s no gray area. I don’t want to fall into the emotional sieve that seems to drive everything.
- 4fggfd 2mo ago
  [dead]
- belZaah 2mo ago
  What’s weird is how emotional people get on this. I told publicly (because I was asked, not out of an obligation to have an opinion), that the prices we pay for LLMs are likely to go up because that’s what happens when the ratio of operational assets to foreign capital drops due to the capital having been turned into heat rather than operational assets. The grief I got from people, dear Lord…
  - klodolph 2mo ago
    I think that opinion is as reasonable as any. I feel compelled to argue against it (I even thought out the arguments in my head!) but my compulsion to have an opinion on HN is a disease, and you made a point of saying that you gave the opinion because asked.
- mapping365 2mo ago
  That's the financial stakes here. That's why it's all or nothing. You're spending on a level that is only justified by the bonafide machine god being ushered into existence, not productivity or coding tools (and on relatively short time horizon). So if this doesn't change the near term trajectory of humanity to a parabolic move upward there is going to be a lot of economic pain. It's not just the spending, it's that the expectations for the returns to justify them are in a relatively short period of time.
  - klodolph 2mo ago
    What’s your reasoning for saying that the spending level requires that level of justification?
    - mapping365 2mo ago
      I think these large numbers are casually thrown about, but the real meaning is mind boggling. 1 trillion dollars is the entire US defense budget - aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, health care, salaries, stealth fighters ect. The hidden AI debt alone is more than that https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-giants-hidden-debts-soar-to-1.65tn-on-opaque-ai-funding https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-gia... just for five tech giants (not to mention all the other smaller players like neoclouds)
      - refurb 2mo ago
        By that measure it doesn’t sound like that much. You’re talking about about an amount that is a 13% of the total US government spending, of which is 20% of the entire US GDP. I’m not saying it’s insignificant but it’s only a few percent of the US GDP and it represents spending over several years.
        mapping365 2mo ago
        I mean that's so far, it continues to grow exponentially larger with each quarter. The debt issuance for the first half looks to be crowding out US treasuries in the bond market - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-debt-competing-with-treasuries-is-adding-to-lofty-us-yields https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-deb... - that's an extremely large amount of debt. And it's still getting larger and larger each quarter.
- JumpCrisscross 2mo ago
  > there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated In what bubble does this pressure exist?
- vanagandr 2mo ago
  How do you stay out of it all, if at all?
- grey-area 2mo ago
  I feel obliged to step in here to say there is a grey area where these are useful tools for some applications but not on the path to AGI. Unfortunately the hype machine has far outstripped their capabilities so far, and the amount of money spent doesn’t look like being recouped, so somebody is going to lose money, as people lost money on the overpriced spacex ipo (overpriced because of AI).
- riffraff 2mo ago
  > The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse I'm inclined to think the collapse has already started but nobody wants to see it yet. In the last few weeks SP500 is down, kospi is down, nikkei is down, US inflation is still high and growth is softer than expected. Hyper inflated stocks (Tesla, Nvidia, SpaceX) are deflating. US bonds are at a 20 year high. Interesting times ahead.
rapind 2mo ago
I was able to create a custom index based on the top 500 that I stripped the big AI stocks from (shovels too). Then I added decent chunks of international, small cap, and treasury ETFs to it. I have no illusions that I can time a bubble, but I'm hopeful I'm at least partially shielded, and most importantly I feel better about ignoring wall street again.
- reddalo 2mo ago
  >I can time a bubble What do you mean? Selling everything before this bubble pops?
  - bawolff 2mo ago
    Talk about taking a quote out of context...
    - karmakurtisaani 2mo ago
      > taking a quote What exactly do you mean here? Like quoting it the right way?
      - bawolff 2mo ago
        Reddalo omitted the negation when quoting the parent comment. In general its considered rude to quote someone in a way that implies they are saying something different from what they said.
        karmakurtisaani 2mo ago
        Yeah I tried to make fun of it, but not that successfully I guess.
        reddalo 2mo ago
        Sorry, my bad. I just wanted to know what the OP meant by "timing a bubble", I didn't want to insinuate that they said something different.
eru 2mo ago
As a retail investor, you should buy an index fund and then forget about it. By the time you have read this article, the professionals and their computers will have digested that material a thousand times over and have priced it in. To be more precise: buy the lowest cost most diversified index fund you can buy and then hold it. If you want to spend some smarts to get a better return: look at how to minimise taxes and fees.
- worik 2mo ago
  > As a retail investor, you should buy an index fund and then forget about it. That definitely was true. I am unsure it is still true. Index funds have taken so much of the trade volume the are becoming momentum strategies So long as you are happy following the market wherever it goes, and if the recent past is a guide then up is the direction, then yes. But given the nepotism and corruption in the highest reaches of USAnian society (e.g. Trump's crypto currency scams and the blatant inside dealing and rule ignoring of the Space X float) the future looks much less certain than the past
  - collabs 2mo ago
    The future always has risks but the question is that does an option better than index funds exist?
    - eru 2mo ago
      Depending on jurisdiction and taxation, yes. Eg in many places owner-occupied housing is favoured, and might make sense to acquire, even though otherwise it's silly: a single lumpy usually highly levered position; no diversification; multiple times your networth and with very high transaction costs.
  - eru 2mo ago
    > I am unsure it is still true. Index funds have taken so much of the trade volume the are becoming momentum strategies I don't understand how that's supposed to work? Btw, keep in mind that index funds are typically really, really keen to lend their shares out to short sellers. > But given the nepotism and corruption in the highest reaches of USAnian society (e.g. Trump's crypto currency scams and the blatant inside dealing and rule ignoring of the Space X float) the future looks much less certain than the past That's a big part of why I am invested in a global index fund, not anything America specific.
dgellow 2mo ago
> Gee, AI is so complicated, how can I keep up with the landscape? The interesting thing is: you do not need to keep up. It’s actually way easier and cheaper to wait a bit for the chaos to stabilize, then learn to use the tools. You don’t need to have been someone who experienced the whole evolution, non stop at the edge. It’s ok to let the enthusiasts discover how things work and eventually learn from them. Just like any other technology. The whole „you will be left behind“ is nonsense. If AI is the future, then it will here to stay and you can let others map the domain first
- smackeyacky 2mo ago
  This is the way. You can jump in and out at any time and let everybody else wear the pain of working it out.
  - novocainn 2mo ago
    I think there's a common misconception at play here: using proprietary software thought of as a skill Must be a mix of decades of corporate branding in software and the erosion of trust in the labor market coupled with the rise in noise from various sources... Skills are what they always have been. Logical thinking, good memory, long attention span, critical thinking, communication (the ancient Mediterranean, the culture which forged the currently dominant "West", valued 'rhetoric' almost above everything else besides physical prowess) Being well connected, having a sharp mind, cultivating deep knowledge of science, philosophy, language, mathematics. These things are timeless. Using the current brand of software well is a moot point. Software can only become dominant if it falls in line with mainstream design. Learn design, you can intuit how to use relevant software and the badly design tools will be weeded out naturally. In a nutshell, exercise body and mind. Be strong, cultivate strong relationships. Everything else is just background noise.

mrloopex 2mo ago

Don’t forget there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated. The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse. I think it is too early to make predictions with AI. I mean the sentiment here is either it will dry up the world and kill us all or transcend humanity, there’s no gray area. I don’t want to fall into the emotional sieve that seems to drive everything.

4fggfd 2mo ago
[dead]
belZaah 2mo ago
What’s weird is how emotional people get on this. I told publicly (because I was asked, not out of an obligation to have an opinion), that the prices we pay for LLMs are likely to go up because that’s what happens when the ratio of operational assets to foreign capital drops due to the capital having been turned into heat rather than operational assets. The grief I got from people, dear Lord…
- klodolph 2mo ago
  I think that opinion is as reasonable as any. I feel compelled to argue against it (I even thought out the arguments in my head!) but my compulsion to have an opinion on HN is a disease, and you made a point of saying that you gave the opinion because asked.
mapping365 2mo ago
That's the financial stakes here. That's why it's all or nothing. You're spending on a level that is only justified by the bonafide machine god being ushered into existence, not productivity or coding tools (and on relatively short time horizon). So if this doesn't change the near term trajectory of humanity to a parabolic move upward there is going to be a lot of economic pain. It's not just the spending, it's that the expectations for the returns to justify them are in a relatively short period of time.
- klodolph 2mo ago
  What’s your reasoning for saying that the spending level requires that level of justification?
  - mapping365 2mo ago
    I think these large numbers are casually thrown about, but the real meaning is mind boggling. 1 trillion dollars is the entire US defense budget - aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, health care, salaries, stealth fighters ect. The hidden AI debt alone is more than that https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-giants-hidden-debts-soar-to-1.65tn-on-opaque-ai-funding https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/five-us-tech-gia... just for five tech giants (not to mention all the other smaller players like neoclouds)
    - refurb 2mo ago
      By that measure it doesn’t sound like that much. You’re talking about about an amount that is a 13% of the total US government spending, of which is 20% of the entire US GDP. I’m not saying it’s insignificant but it’s only a few percent of the US GDP and it represents spending over several years.
      - mapping365 2mo ago
        I mean that's so far, it continues to grow exponentially larger with each quarter. The debt issuance for the first half looks to be crowding out US treasuries in the bond market - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-debt-competing-with-treasuries-is-adding-to-lofty-us-yields https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-23/ai-deb... - that's an extremely large amount of debt. And it's still getting larger and larger each quarter.
JumpCrisscross 2mo ago
> there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated In what bubble does this pressure exist?
vanagandr 2mo ago
How do you stay out of it all, if at all?
grey-area 2mo ago
I feel obliged to step in here to say there is a grey area where these are useful tools for some applications but not on the path to AGI. Unfortunately the hype machine has far outstripped their capabilities so far, and the amount of money spent doesn’t look like being recouped, so somebody is going to lose money, as people lost money on the overpriced spacex ipo (overpriced because of AI).
riffraff 2mo ago
> The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse I'm inclined to think the collapse has already started but nobody wants to see it yet. In the last few weeks SP500 is down, kospi is down, nikkei is down, US inflation is still high and growth is softer than expected. Hyper inflated stocks (Tesla, Nvidia, SpaceX) are deflating. US bonds are at a 20 year high. Interesting times ahead.

rapind 2mo ago

I was able to create a custom index based on the top 500 that I stripped the big AI stocks from (shovels too). Then I added decent chunks of international, small cap, and treasury ETFs to it. I have no illusions that I can time a bubble, but I'm hopeful I'm at least partially shielded, and most importantly I feel better about ignoring wall street again.

reddalo 2mo ago
>I can time a bubble What do you mean? Selling everything before this bubble pops?
- bawolff 2mo ago
  Talk about taking a quote out of context...
  - karmakurtisaani 2mo ago
    > taking a quote What exactly do you mean here? Like quoting it the right way?
    - bawolff 2mo ago
      Reddalo omitted the negation when quoting the parent comment. In general its considered rude to quote someone in a way that implies they are saying something different from what they said.
      - karmakurtisaani 2mo ago
        Yeah I tried to make fun of it, but not that successfully I guess.
      - reddalo 2mo ago
        Sorry, my bad. I just wanted to know what the OP meant by "timing a bubble", I didn't want to insinuate that they said something different.

eru 2mo ago

As a retail investor, you should buy an index fund and then forget about it. By the time you have read this article, the professionals and their computers will have digested that material a thousand times over and have priced it in. To be more precise: buy the lowest cost most diversified index fund you can buy and then hold it. If you want to spend some smarts to get a better return: look at how to minimise taxes and fees.

worik 2mo ago
> As a retail investor, you should buy an index fund and then forget about it. That definitely was true. I am unsure it is still true. Index funds have taken so much of the trade volume the are becoming momentum strategies So long as you are happy following the market wherever it goes, and if the recent past is a guide then up is the direction, then yes. But given the nepotism and corruption in the highest reaches of USAnian society (e.g. Trump's crypto currency scams and the blatant inside dealing and rule ignoring of the Space X float) the future looks much less certain than the past
- collabs 2mo ago
  The future always has risks but the question is that does an option better than index funds exist?
  - eru 2mo ago
    Depending on jurisdiction and taxation, yes. Eg in many places owner-occupied housing is favoured, and might make sense to acquire, even though otherwise it's silly: a single lumpy usually highly levered position; no diversification; multiple times your networth and with very high transaction costs.
- eru 2mo ago
  > I am unsure it is still true. Index funds have taken so much of the trade volume the are becoming momentum strategies I don't understand how that's supposed to work? Btw, keep in mind that index funds are typically really, really keen to lend their shares out to short sellers. > But given the nepotism and corruption in the highest reaches of USAnian society (e.g. Trump's crypto currency scams and the blatant inside dealing and rule ignoring of the Space X float) the future looks much less certain than the past That's a big part of why I am invested in a global index fund, not anything America specific.

dgellow 2mo ago

> Gee, AI is so complicated, how can I keep up with the landscape? The interesting thing is: you do not need to keep up. It’s actually way easier and cheaper to wait a bit for the chaos to stabilize, then learn to use the tools. You don’t need to have been someone who experienced the whole evolution, non stop at the edge. It’s ok to let the enthusiasts discover how things work and eventually learn from them. Just like any other technology. The whole „you will be left behind“ is nonsense. If AI is the future, then it will here to stay and you can let others map the domain first

smackeyacky 2mo ago
This is the way. You can jump in and out at any time and let everybody else wear the pain of working it out.
- novocainn 2mo ago
  I think there's a common misconception at play here: using proprietary software thought of as a skill Must be a mix of decades of corporate branding in software and the erosion of trust in the labor market coupled with the rise in noise from various sources... Skills are what they always have been. Logical thinking, good memory, long attention span, critical thinking, communication (the ancient Mediterranean, the culture which forged the currently dominant "West", valued 'rhetoric' almost above everything else besides physical prowess) Being well connected, having a sharp mind, cultivating deep knowledge of science, philosophy, language, mathematics. These things are timeless. Using the current brand of software well is a moot point. Software can only become dominant if it falls in line with mainstream design. Learn design, you can intuit how to use relevant software and the badly design tools will be weeded out naturally. In a nutshell, exercise body and mind. Be strong, cultivate strong relationships. Everything else is just background noise.