2 ms·

Here's an example making the rounds, originally from 2022: there is systemic bias in Americans' understanding of US national statistics about all kinds of subgr

Here's an example making the rounds, originally from 2022: there is systemic bias in Americans' understanding of US national statistics about all kinds of subgroups: https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/41556-americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/41556-americans-misestimat... (Although, apparently the poll didn't ask how uncertain they were. The question was, "If you had to guess, what percentage of American adults...")

fasterik 3mo ago
I wouldn't be surprised if this were a general cognitive bias having to do with estimating proportions, and nothing to do specifically with minority groups.
faeyanpiraat 3mo ago
Did they really estimate that 30% of us adults live in New York?
graemep 3mo ago
The total of the estimates of minority group percentages is well over 100%!
- RugnirViking 3mo ago
  do be fair, so is the truth. One can be both transgender and jewish (or a military veteran and live in texas!), theres no contradiction in that. In fact I would expect that most people are a minority in at least one way (note the presence of things like "live in new york" in the minorities there!)
  - graemep 3mo ago
    I meant ethnic minorities: "Muslim Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%) and Jewish Americans (estimate: 30%, true: 2%). And we find the same sorts of overestimates for racial and ethnic minorities, such as Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%), Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%), and Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%)."
    - Ferret7446 3mo ago
      Let's not kid ourselves, this is 100% due to mainstream media bias. Well, maybe not 100%, let's say 90%
ShadowOfThePit 2mo ago
I refuse to believe that the average american thinks a third of their population lives in New York City, Texas and California. And that Black Americans think half of America is black???

fasterik 3mo ago

I wouldn't be surprised if this were a general cognitive bias having to do with estimating proportions, and nothing to do specifically with minority groups.

faeyanpiraat 3mo ago

Did they really estimate that 30% of us adults live in New York?

graemep 3mo ago

The total of the estimates of minority group percentages is well over 100%!

RugnirViking 3mo ago
do be fair, so is the truth. One can be both transgender and jewish (or a military veteran and live in texas!), theres no contradiction in that. In fact I would expect that most people are a minority in at least one way (note the presence of things like "live in new york" in the minorities there!)
- graemep 3mo ago
  I meant ethnic minorities: "Muslim Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%) and Jewish Americans (estimate: 30%, true: 2%). And we find the same sorts of overestimates for racial and ethnic minorities, such as Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%), Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%), and Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%)."
  - Ferret7446 3mo ago
    Let's not kid ourselves, this is 100% due to mainstream media bias. Well, maybe not 100%, let's say 90%

ShadowOfThePit 2mo ago

I refuse to believe that the average american thinks a third of their population lives in New York City, Texas and California. And that Black Americans think half of America is black???