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What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature. We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will
by gonzalohm 3mo ago
What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature.
We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.
- jonwinstanley 3mo agoWell, we can see it coming, but we are doing very little about
- inigyou 3mo agoWe've been seeing our own certain destruction from climate change coming since the 70s. The 1870s. We had two entire lifetimes to do something about it, we didn't. Except those guys throwing soup at the fossil fuel HQs. They did a little.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- windexh8er 3mo agoWe're building more data centers for a technology that's ramping global warming even faster. Water consumption, heat generation and tons and tons of CO2 emitting concrete to house these things. So we're doing something, but those things are counterproductive to our planet's general well being. Apparently billionaires don't need an inhabitable Earth to live on.
- inigyou 3mo agoDC water consumption is a red herring. That water is returned back to its source but warmer.
- windexh8er 3mo agoIf you think that every data center is now a closed loop system enjoy your propaganda. Colossus 1 and 2 still use open loop systems. And with the case of blow down water that's "returned" it's not usable due to the use of concentrated salts (1,200 to 6,000 mg/L). In your mind this is a closed loop system of clean water. It is not. And as DCs have less and less discharge there is more and more solid waste produced. Your assertion that "water consumption is a red herring" is utter bull shit. I'd suggest enlightening yourself [0][1][2][3]. [0] https://genesiswatertech.com/blog-post/advanced-blowdown-treatment-technologies-for-data-center-water-recovery/ https://genesiswatertech.com/blog-post/advanced-blowdown-tre... [1] https://fieldreport.caes.uga.edu/publications/TP121/how-data-centers-impact-surface-and-ground-waters/ https://fieldreport.caes.uga.edu/publications/TP121/how-data... [2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.21760 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.21760 [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/articles/epa-writing-permits-could-let-182418731.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/articles/epa-writing-perm...
- dredmorbius 3mo ago<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48055532 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48055532>
- windexh8er 3mo agoUnfounded comments that are nothing but a lie are OK. Yet, calling it out directly goes against the rules. In this case the response is warranted. Until people start to see what actually goes on in these data centers with respect to pollution (of many kinds) I don't have a problem being direct.
- dredmorbius 3mo agoWhat the link I'd shared stated was "Please edit out swipes, as the site guidelines ask". It also states "Your comment would be fine without that ... bit." I frequently address poorly-founded comments myself. Just did immediately before this reply, see: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49064763 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49064763> ( I'm doing so both staying within the guidelines and specifically calling out the idiocy displayed, though without relying on that particular word. Calling out Guidelines violations does not imply disagreement with what's been said otherwise. It is a call for more substantive participation, and probably strengthening your own arguments. You've been here long enough that all of this should be quite familiar to you. (I'm not a mod, which is why I'd initially linked a mod's own admonition.)
- asats 3mo agoYeah, data-centers are definitely the worst thing happening to the planet. You got your priorities straight. AI data centers are what, half a percent of the world electricity consumption, if that, and an even smaller fraction of the total energy?
- dredmorbius 3mo agoGrowth trend matters more than absolute present value. Data centres generally had been seeing energy use growing at 12% annually, or with a doubling time of 5.8 years (about 5 years 10 months). AI is accelerating that trend. In the United States, power consumption by data centres is on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030. Driven by AI use, the US economy is set to consume more electricity in 2030 for processing data than for manufacturing all energy-intensive goods combined, including aluminium, steel, cement and chemicals. In advanced economies more broadly, data centres are projected to drive more than 20% of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030, putting the power sector in those economies back on a growth footing after years of stagnating or declining demand in many of them. <https://www.iea.org/news/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electricity-demand-from-data-centres-while-offering-the-potential-to-transform-how-the-energy-sector-works https://www.iea.org/news/ai-is-set-to-drive-surging-electric...>
- asats 3mo ago>or with a doubling time of 5.8 years So that in ~6 years they will account for 1%, and still a fraction of the percent of the world total energy use?
- dredmorbius 3mo agoModulo, as noted, AI is accelerating that trend.
- myaccountonhn 3mo ago1% is a lot.
- 3mo ago
- CGMthrowaway 3mo agoWe are doing a lot. Almost 90% of electricity capacity added last year was renewables. Nearly 1 in 3 cars sold are now EVs. The world is spending over $2 trillion every year on low‑carbon energy investment. Solar and wind have already avoided more than 2 gigatons of C02 being added to the atmosphere. In the US, the IRA will drop emissions 40% to below 2005 levels. What do you mean we are doing very little?
- logtempo 3mo agoIt should be at the level od the economy of war but worldwide. The majority reacted too late to have the possibility to act slowly.
- bluefirebrand 3mo ago> We are doing a lot. Almost 90% of electricity capacity added last year was renewables New capacity being electric is fine but we need to be actively removing fossil fuels from existing capacity, which isn't actually happening. We're just building new capacity on top of old existing fossil fuels. So sure, it's nice that a majority of new capacity is green, but we're still burning more fossil fuels year over year
- akamaka 3mo agoI’ve had the same discussion with many people, and when I tell them how much work is done on cleaning up carbon emissions, the reply is always “well… it’s not enough”. And of course, they don’t have a sense of what is “enough”. They don’t really understand it in a factual, measurable way, but just are interesting in what the overall story is, and what it says about humanity failing.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- myaccountonhn 3mo agoBoth can be true: we are doing a lot, and it's not enough.
- gmuslera 3mo agoThat should be the scary part. We know how El Niño affects world's weather, but it is also a symptom of how much heat the ocean is absorbing. That core problem won't end this year or the next one, and it will keep disrupting global climate. And with it, agriculture, settlements, economy and civilization as we know it. And the scariest part is what we do about it. Keep doing activities that rise global temperature and power up positive feedback loops, weakening or abolishing climate policies, and when things start to feel urgent will try things by the fast way with unclear outcomes.
- hammock 3mo agoIt’s all so scary! I regret having a child.
- grvdrm 3mo agoI don’t. But I will at least consider the thinking about my kids (8, 4) should look into alternative paths.
- xyzsparetimexyz 3mo agoFor your child's sake, make sure they never find out your regrets.
- protocolture 3mo ago>It’s all so scary! I regret having a child. I dont get this. I would regret having a kid maybe if he turns out to not be resilient and up to the challenges posed by the changing climate and the shitty political situation. But those are things I can work with him on. Opsec can be taught. Political dissent can be taught. This thing can be turned around when the political class has been disposed of.
- gonzalohm 3mo agoIt's scary because you see the world being destroyed and there is nothing we (normal citizens) can do about it
- 3mo ago
- xorcist 3mo agoDue to the widespread idea that climate prediction has been predicting doom and gloom all the time, and has always been wrong about it, I have been entertaining myself by revisiting old climate predictions from 20 years ago. I can highly recommend it. I mean, predicting the climate must be one of the hardest numerical simulations you can run. Climate models are famously incomplete. But the results turned out to be way more accurate than I would have thought. That's some impressive modeling, and I would assume that models have only improved since then. The most chilling thing (and not in a good way) about it is that popular science type repotrs for the general public usually indicate an interval between a good case and a bad case, with a nice line in between. In retrospect we have been pretty much perfectly tracking the bad case line ever since.
- baxtr 3mo agoInteresting. Do you mind sharing some of the predictions you have been revisiting?
- dlx 3mo agoThis sounds neat...I'd love to do it as well. Any past predictions vs current conditions tools or datasets that you're using?
- jakebol 3mo agoThere have been a lot of published retrospective cohort climate model studies, ex https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085378 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL08...
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- protocolture 3mo ago>Due to the widespread idea that climate prediction has been predicting doom and gloom all the time, and has always been wrong about it, I have been entertaining myself by revisiting old climate predictions from 20 years ago. I can highly recommend it. N=1 Mind, but I remember reading a spread in Australian Scientist that predicted Australia would become something of a rainless desert, storms bringing only lightning, by 2020 or so. Leaving only Melbourne, Adelaide and Tasmania somewhat habitable. Article went on to discuss how to calmly migrate the population south over the 13 or so years remaining, and what the government might do to dissuade climate refugees from pacific islands. Since then I have a read a lot of people walking back the absolute death and destruction stuff, but "Extremier Extremes" seems to be the closest to a consensus position, one that the strongest El Nino ever supports completely.
- bamboozled 3mo agoOnce I listened to a podcast about the holodomor, a famine caused by Stalin and affected Ukrainians mostly. In the end they were forced to eat their children as they were so desperate for food. The suffering was untold, but real, it happened, and that kind of thing can and will happen again if we're not extra extra careful. We're pushing ourselves into absolutely untold suffering the longer do nothing. I truly fear a famine like that and the more we go down this road, the closer we're getting. Obviously its too late to avoid the worst, the only hope we have is to collectively cooperate to help each other get through it. Not sure that will happen but I believe that's the only way through.