4 ms·

Because Russian's war with Ukraine is unsustainable, something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO. S

Because Russian's war with Ukraine is unsustainable, something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO. Some other scenarios also explained in this good video https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jDhYFSGkaAc https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jDhYFSGkaAc

anticodon 3mo ago
What? In other words, you're saying: "Russia is losing war with Ukraine, so it wants to start a second front with bigger enemy". Also, how's Ukraine war is sustainable for Ukraine? It's economy is non-existent (almost 100% dependent on western donations), it has less than 50% of population of 2022 (they don't publish any population stats directly, but if you combine available statistics, there are about 10-15 millions left most of them old retired people or young people that are too young to send them to the front lines), they are losing territory every day. This is some weird "Ukraine is winning but front is moving in the wrong direction" logic.
- tclancy 3mo ago
  I think you’re misreading the comment and conflating Putin’s survival with the current war. I believe the OP is saying the administration can’t keep selling the war with Ukraine as a good idea indefinitely and will need to pivot to something more marketable. In our Internet-shaped world, everything is entertainment. This particular show has run its course and needs a pivot, add new actors, make a Very Special Episode or kill off one of the main characters.
- kasey_junk 3mo ago
  A war doesn’t need to be sustainable for Ukraine, it’s existential. For the aggressor that backstop doesn’t exist. They could literally stop the war anytime they wanted so they need to continue to prove it’s sustainable to keep doing it.
- mcv 3mo ago
  Ukraine is gaining some ground, but very slowly. It's basically a stalemate. Except that Ukraine is making the war extremely costly for Russia with the recent attacks on refineries and other targets deep into Russia. As long as the EU keeps supporting them, I think Ukraine will be better able to maintain the current situation than Russia. But Ukraine is nearly as exhausted as Russia, and I think a European coalition sending real practical ground and air support would help a lot. I suspect sufficient support could force a breakthrough in southern Ukraine an liberate a very large chunk of land very quickly. The reason that's not happening is either that NATO thinks this would give Putin the excuse he needs for large scale mobilisation, or simply because Europe is afraid to get its hands dirty. I don't think the former is nearly as big an issue as some believe; Putin has never needed any action from NATO or EU members to justify escalation, and has never responded to imagined red lines getting crossed. The latter is more likely. I think Europe needs to remember the sacrifice that Canada and the US brought to liberate Europe in WW2, and recognise the moral obligation that creates to liberate others in a similar position. Like Ukraine today.
  - worldthruword 3mo ago
    Ukr is attacking Retailers (Wildberries) in Russia because Russia helps Iran attack Amazon (US retailer) Data centers in the Gulf.
    - petre 3mo ago
      Nothing to do with Amazon. They sell military and dual use goods, that's why. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/26/8045972/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/26/8045972/
  - miohtama 3mo ago
    It has turned out to be luck in disguise when Trump stopped weapon deliveries to Ukraine. Because Biden, Trump, and the Germans set all kinds of limitations so as not to strike Russia. For the first three years, Ukrainians were defending with one arm tied behind their back. Now, when they finally can damage the Russian economy enough to make the war unsustainable for them, there is a chance we can get an end to this confict.
- leonidasrup 3mo ago
  Not all wars have a simple way to say who is winning, who is loosing. See the Vietnam war, different Afgan wars.
cingraa 3mo ago
Does not pass the smell test. The Youtuber has an axe to grind. Also, tracking in the URL. Why make it more difficult if the current situation is unsustainable? Does not make sense.
- Eupolemos 3mo ago
  > The Youtuber has an axe to grind It is Anders Puck Nielsen who is a serious military researcher and commentator. He is a go-to by any television channel in Denmark and has been from the start of the war. He very much passes the smell test :)
- miohtama 3mo ago
  Removed the copy-paste tracker.
Mistletoe 3mo ago
Luckily being 73 and in what appears to be poor health can’t last forever. I can’t imagine spending my twilight years being one of the most hated people on the planet, but the head of the USA and Russia seem to have no issues with that. “Father Time is undefeated.” - LeBron James
- Jolter 3mo ago
  Hoping for Putin to get sick is unhelpful. Trump is still in power well past 80, after all. We would do better to plan for a future where Putin rules Russia for another 10-15 years.
  - adabyron 3mo ago
    Trump is 80. Putin is 73.
- petre 3mo ago
  The poor health thing "Putin is sick" was a FSB psy-op. Maybe he's sick in the head but otherwise in good health.
  - icantevenhold 3mo ago
    He does look a lot better than his American counterpart
    - alt227 3mo ago
      Putin is a lot more careful about the image he projects and his public appearances than trump.
  - simonh 3mo ago
    Why would Putin want people to think that Putin is sick or infirm, and his ability to lead might be compromised? His entire schtick is that he's a strongman leader and the only reliable option in Russia.
worldthruword 3mo ago
[flagged]
- miohtama 3mo ago
  Russia is the aggressor, and it could stop at any time. The US has not funded the war for the last two years, as Mr Trump has been in power. There could be a total collapse in Eastern Europe, but the total collapse will be in Moscow due to an unsustainable war.
  - worldthruword 3mo ago
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/us-ambassador-china-believes-it-is-waging-a-proxy-war-through-russia/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/us-ambass...
GTP 3mo ago
> one option is an escalation with NATO. Wouldn't this make the situation much worse for Russia, and therefore for him as well? The oligarchs will know who is to blame if Putin starts a war with NATO.
- cbg0 3mo ago
  The oligarchs aren't the ones controlling Putin, it's the other way around. But yes, escalation with NATO is a very poor idea, given Russia's struggles with a single non-NATO country.
  - GTP 3mo ago
    I belive it's the other way around only up to a point. If the situation gets too bad, I believe they have the resources to overthrow him.
- miohtama 3mo ago
  Regime security for Putin in an escalation/mass mobilisation situation is high. The chances of the Russian economy surviving are poor.
  - WJW 3mo ago
    Often economic crisis leads to less regime security, not more. Why would it be different in Russia?
    - miohtama 3mo ago
      Watch the video in the link and it is quite well explained there.
- 8note 3mo ago
  war with nato means he can more easily convince the russian public to go along with mobilization russians arent excited to go die in ukraine, but defending the homeland from NATO is a different story
talkingtab 3mo ago
Do not bother with the youtube video.The essential ideas is that Putin could scare European Countries into surrendering Ukraine. This video legitimizes that scare tactic. Nor does it deal with the underlying issue, which is that like Hitler and Nixon, Putin believes he is infallible. As a result the world as he sees it and the world as it is will continue to diverge.
- fractallyte 3mo ago
  On the contrary, the video gives an excellent analysis of Putin's options, and it's definitely worth watching. You're right that Putin believes he's infallible, and the Nielsen makes the point that Putin often picks the most stupid option. But it also emphasizes that Europe needs to be ready to act if Putin decides to escalate, and if the US chooses to abandon NATO.
FpUser 3mo ago
>"something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO" I think us couch experts including author of that particular video have no fucking clue what he will do and what the true state of affairs is. Had all those expert prediction materialized Russia would've already disintegrated 10 times and Putin would've lost power in a first months.

anticodon 3mo ago

What? In other words, you're saying: "Russia is losing war with Ukraine, so it wants to start a second front with bigger enemy". Also, how's Ukraine war is sustainable for Ukraine? It's economy is non-existent (almost 100% dependent on western donations), it has less than 50% of population of 2022 (they don't publish any population stats directly, but if you combine available statistics, there are about 10-15 millions left most of them old retired people or young people that are too young to send them to the front lines), they are losing territory every day. This is some weird "Ukraine is winning but front is moving in the wrong direction" logic.

tclancy 3mo ago
I think you’re misreading the comment and conflating Putin’s survival with the current war. I believe the OP is saying the administration can’t keep selling the war with Ukraine as a good idea indefinitely and will need to pivot to something more marketable. In our Internet-shaped world, everything is entertainment. This particular show has run its course and needs a pivot, add new actors, make a Very Special Episode or kill off one of the main characters.
kasey_junk 3mo ago
A war doesn’t need to be sustainable for Ukraine, it’s existential. For the aggressor that backstop doesn’t exist. They could literally stop the war anytime they wanted so they need to continue to prove it’s sustainable to keep doing it.
mcv 3mo ago
Ukraine is gaining some ground, but very slowly. It's basically a stalemate. Except that Ukraine is making the war extremely costly for Russia with the recent attacks on refineries and other targets deep into Russia. As long as the EU keeps supporting them, I think Ukraine will be better able to maintain the current situation than Russia. But Ukraine is nearly as exhausted as Russia, and I think a European coalition sending real practical ground and air support would help a lot. I suspect sufficient support could force a breakthrough in southern Ukraine an liberate a very large chunk of land very quickly. The reason that's not happening is either that NATO thinks this would give Putin the excuse he needs for large scale mobilisation, or simply because Europe is afraid to get its hands dirty. I don't think the former is nearly as big an issue as some believe; Putin has never needed any action from NATO or EU members to justify escalation, and has never responded to imagined red lines getting crossed. The latter is more likely. I think Europe needs to remember the sacrifice that Canada and the US brought to liberate Europe in WW2, and recognise the moral obligation that creates to liberate others in a similar position. Like Ukraine today.
- worldthruword 3mo ago
  Ukr is attacking Retailers (Wildberries) in Russia because Russia helps Iran attack Amazon (US retailer) Data centers in the Gulf.
  - petre 3mo ago
    Nothing to do with Amazon. They sell military and dual use goods, that's why. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/26/8045972/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/26/8045972/
- miohtama 3mo ago
  It has turned out to be luck in disguise when Trump stopped weapon deliveries to Ukraine. Because Biden, Trump, and the Germans set all kinds of limitations so as not to strike Russia. For the first three years, Ukrainians were defending with one arm tied behind their back. Now, when they finally can damage the Russian economy enough to make the war unsustainable for them, there is a chance we can get an end to this confict.
leonidasrup 3mo ago
Not all wars have a simple way to say who is winning, who is loosing. See the Vietnam war, different Afgan wars.

cingraa 3mo ago

Does not pass the smell test. The Youtuber has an axe to grind. Also, tracking in the URL. Why make it more difficult if the current situation is unsustainable? Does not make sense.

Eupolemos 3mo ago
> The Youtuber has an axe to grind It is Anders Puck Nielsen who is a serious military researcher and commentator. He is a go-to by any television channel in Denmark and has been from the start of the war. He very much passes the smell test :)
miohtama 3mo ago
Removed the copy-paste tracker.

Mistletoe 3mo ago

Luckily being 73 and in what appears to be poor health can’t last forever. I can’t imagine spending my twilight years being one of the most hated people on the planet, but the head of the USA and Russia seem to have no issues with that. “Father Time is undefeated.” - LeBron James

Jolter 3mo ago
Hoping for Putin to get sick is unhelpful. Trump is still in power well past 80, after all. We would do better to plan for a future where Putin rules Russia for another 10-15 years.
- adabyron 3mo ago
  Trump is 80. Putin is 73.
petre 3mo ago
The poor health thing "Putin is sick" was a FSB psy-op. Maybe he's sick in the head but otherwise in good health.
- icantevenhold 3mo ago
  He does look a lot better than his American counterpart
  - alt227 3mo ago
    Putin is a lot more careful about the image he projects and his public appearances than trump.
- simonh 3mo ago
  Why would Putin want people to think that Putin is sick or infirm, and his ability to lead might be compromised? His entire schtick is that he's a strongman leader and the only reliable option in Russia.

worldthruword 3mo ago

[flagged]

miohtama 3mo ago
Russia is the aggressor, and it could stop at any time. The US has not funded the war for the last two years, as Mr Trump has been in power. There could be a total collapse in Eastern Europe, but the total collapse will be in Moscow due to an unsustainable war.
- worldthruword 3mo ago
  https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/us-ambassador-china-believes-it-is-waging-a-proxy-war-through-russia/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/us-ambass...

GTP 3mo ago

> one option is an escalation with NATO. Wouldn't this make the situation much worse for Russia, and therefore for him as well? The oligarchs will know who is to blame if Putin starts a war with NATO.

cbg0 3mo ago
The oligarchs aren't the ones controlling Putin, it's the other way around. But yes, escalation with NATO is a very poor idea, given Russia's struggles with a single non-NATO country.
- GTP 3mo ago
  I belive it's the other way around only up to a point. If the situation gets too bad, I believe they have the resources to overthrow him.
miohtama 3mo ago
Regime security for Putin in an escalation/mass mobilisation situation is high. The chances of the Russian economy surviving are poor.
- WJW 3mo ago
  Often economic crisis leads to less regime security, not more. Why would it be different in Russia?
  - miohtama 3mo ago
    Watch the video in the link and it is quite well explained there.
8note 3mo ago
war with nato means he can more easily convince the russian public to go along with mobilization russians arent excited to go die in ukraine, but defending the homeland from NATO is a different story

talkingtab 3mo ago

Do not bother with the youtube video.The essential ideas is that Putin could scare European Countries into surrendering Ukraine. This video legitimizes that scare tactic. Nor does it deal with the underlying issue, which is that like Hitler and Nixon, Putin believes he is infallible. As a result the world as he sees it and the world as it is will continue to diverge.

fractallyte 3mo ago
On the contrary, the video gives an excellent analysis of Putin's options, and it's definitely worth watching. You're right that Putin believes he's infallible, and the Nielsen makes the point that Putin often picks the most stupid option. But it also emphasizes that Europe needs to be ready to act if Putin decides to escalate, and if the US chooses to abandon NATO.

FpUser 3mo ago

>"something has to change for Putin for him to remain in power, and one option is an escalation with NATO" I think us couch experts including author of that particular video have no fucking clue what he will do and what the true state of affairs is. Had all those expert prediction materialized Russia would've already disintegrated 10 times and Putin would've lost power in a first months.