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Drones shot down in Romania, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, etc. These are probes. Judging responses and response times. Rumor is Polish GROM ha

by esseph 3mo ago

Drones shot down in Romania, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, etc. These are probes. Judging responses and response times. Rumor is Polish GROM have been inside Russia for months. Edit: See sources in my comment below. I bring receipts.

notathrowaway51 3mo ago
Can you elaborate on the last sentence? It sounds crazy.
- matkoniecz 3mo ago
  yes, it is a big [citation needed] for me
  - esseph 3mo ago
    See gattr's comment above Basically GROM getting "leave" and then ending up with their whole team inside Ukraine as "contractors", just with deniability. https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/polish-mercenaries-ukrainian-assault-units https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/polish-mercenaries... Regarding efforts to provide deniability for their operations, a Polish officer informed him: “we worked out a formula for our presence in Ukraine … we were simply sent on paid leave. Politicians pretended not to see this.” The Polish Volunteer Corps has appeared to use the same model to provide cover for the mass deployment of Polish Armed Forces personnel, who are technically former personnel when entering the theatre, with their presence having for years been widely reported on multiple frontlines. In February 2026, the lower house of the Polish parliament adopted legislation to provide legal cover to Polish citizens who fought in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla... https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/12/8043770/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/12/8043770/ https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/baltics-poland-warn-russia-launch-limited-military-hybrid-134779778 https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/baltics-poland-w... Edit: Added: https://youtu.be/5RBY1cY-GF8?is=rVFFKVnBxkmsF9aM https://youtu.be/5RBY1cY-GF8?is=rVFFKVnBxkmsF9aM Pic: https://x.com/intermarium24/status/1659954927299440641 https://x.com/intermarium24/status/1659954927299440641
    - squidbeak 3mo ago
      You are mixing legitimate sources reporting the intelligence suggesting Russia is seeking a provocation in Poland with a Kremlin propganda channel lying about Polish commandos operating in Ukraine. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-watch-magazine-bias/ https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-watch-magazine-bias/
      - esseph 3mo ago
        Thanks, wasn't aware of that website backing.
    - justsomehnguy 3mo ago
      It's always amusing when one side claims what the presence of NATO personnel in UA is "just Russian lies" only to post the confirmation of it themselves. It's even more amusing when you see pictures like this https://i.redd.it/ex4jgoqir4qg1.png https://i.redd.it/ex4jgoqir4qg1.png
      - rainworld 3mo ago
        https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/celebration_parallax https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/celebration_parallax
        justsomehnguy 3mo ago
        Nice one, thanks.
      - matkoniecz 3mo ago
        "just Russian lies" was, at least where I have seen it, was reply to claims about whole NATO armies send to Ukraine and lost with tens of thousands killed in action Or claims that EU is freezing to death or food running out (or soon will be)
- Kubuxu 3mo ago
  There are rumours that Polish GROM has been taking “vacations” in Ukraine. As in “we cannot officially approve your presence there but we won’t stop you either”, from the government.
- gattr 3mo ago
  I watched a related Chris Cappy video the other day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RBY1cY-GF8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RBY1cY-GF8 > Poland's elite GROM commandos have become legendary (...) in this episode, we explore (...) the covert war between Poland and Russia, and why Polish-speaking commandos are appearing inside Russian territory.
cingraa 3mo ago
Occam's razor. Decoy drones with a bit more fuel or favorable wind.
topspin 3mo ago
> These are probes. Judging responses and response times. Some, yes. Many are merely defective units. These weapons are being manufactured in enormous quantity and deployed rapidly with minimal quality control: based on the reported numbers over Ukraine, the net manufacturing rate is about 10 per hour. Inevitably, some are defective and fail to follow waypoints. Romania is on a line through numerous targets in Ukraine from the Kursk region where many Russian drone flights begin, so Romania ends up being the unintended destination. The good news is that the defects likely represent resource problems for the manufacturers. The same phenomena has been noted with increasing failed missile launches from Russia.

by esseph 3mo ago

notathrowaway51 3mo ago

Can you elaborate on the last sentence? It sounds crazy.

matkoniecz 3mo ago
yes, it is a big [citation needed] for me
- esseph 3mo ago
  See gattr's comment above Basically GROM getting "leave" and then ending up with their whole team inside Ukraine as "contractors", just with deniability. https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/polish-mercenaries-ukrainian-assault-units https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/polish-mercenaries... Regarding efforts to provide deniability for their operations, a Polish officer informed him: “we worked out a formula for our presence in Ukraine … we were simply sent on paid leave. Politicians pretended not to see this.” The Polish Volunteer Corps has appeared to use the same model to provide cover for the mass deployment of Polish Armed Forces personnel, who are technically former personnel when entering the theatre, with their presence having for years been widely reported on multiple frontlines. In February 2026, the lower house of the Polish parliament adopted legislation to provide legal cover to Polish citizens who fought in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla... https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/12/8043770/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/12/8043770/ https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/baltics-poland-warn-russia-launch-limited-military-hybrid-134779778 https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/baltics-poland-w... Edit: Added: https://youtu.be/5RBY1cY-GF8?is=rVFFKVnBxkmsF9aM https://youtu.be/5RBY1cY-GF8?is=rVFFKVnBxkmsF9aM Pic: https://x.com/intermarium24/status/1659954927299440641 https://x.com/intermarium24/status/1659954927299440641
  - squidbeak 3mo ago
    You are mixing legitimate sources reporting the intelligence suggesting Russia is seeking a provocation in Poland with a Kremlin propganda channel lying about Polish commandos operating in Ukraine. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-watch-magazine-bias/ https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-watch-magazine-bias/
    - esseph 3mo ago
      Thanks, wasn't aware of that website backing.
  - justsomehnguy 3mo ago
    It's always amusing when one side claims what the presence of NATO personnel in UA is "just Russian lies" only to post the confirmation of it themselves. It's even more amusing when you see pictures like this https://i.redd.it/ex4jgoqir4qg1.png https://i.redd.it/ex4jgoqir4qg1.png
    - rainworld 3mo ago
      https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/celebration_parallax https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/celebration_parallax
      - justsomehnguy 3mo ago
        Nice one, thanks.
    - matkoniecz 3mo ago
      "just Russian lies" was, at least where I have seen it, was reply to claims about whole NATO armies send to Ukraine and lost with tens of thousands killed in action Or claims that EU is freezing to death or food running out (or soon will be)
Kubuxu 3mo ago
There are rumours that Polish GROM has been taking “vacations” in Ukraine. As in “we cannot officially approve your presence there but we won’t stop you either”, from the government.
gattr 3mo ago
I watched a related Chris Cappy video the other day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RBY1cY-GF8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RBY1cY-GF8 > Poland's elite GROM commandos have become legendary (...) in this episode, we explore (...) the covert war between Poland and Russia, and why Polish-speaking commandos are appearing inside Russian territory.

cingraa 3mo ago

Occam's razor. Decoy drones with a bit more fuel or favorable wind.

topspin 3mo ago

> These are probes. Judging responses and response times. Some, yes. Many are merely defective units. These weapons are being manufactured in enormous quantity and deployed rapidly with minimal quality control: based on the reported numbers over Ukraine, the net manufacturing rate is about 10 per hour. Inevitably, some are defective and fail to follow waypoints. Romania is on a line through numerous targets in Ukraine from the Kursk region where many Russian drone flights begin, so Romania ends up being the unintended destination. The good news is that the defects likely represent resource problems for the manufacturers. The same phenomena has been noted with increasing failed missile launches from Russia.