4 ms·
Exactly, like weather forecasting. If you're told there's a 30% chance of rain, it doesn't mean that 3 out of 10 times you will experience rain. Either it will
by KludgeShySir 2mo ago
Exactly, like weather forecasting. If you're told there's a 30% chance of rain, it doesn't mean that 3 out of 10 times you will experience rain.
Either it will rain or it won't, so the probability is either 0% or 100%. And so a forecast of "30% chance of rain" is referring to the likelihood that your probability will be 100%, as opposed to 0%.
- margalabargala 2mo ago> Either it will rain or it won't, so the probability is either 0% or 100%. And so a forecast of "30% chance of rain" is referring to the likelihood that your probability will be 100%, as opposed to 0%. This is a huge misunderstanding of what probability means.
- someguyiguess 2mo ago75% chance you’re wrong.