6 ms·

But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tec

by tamimio 3mo ago

But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.

eliotho 3mo ago
Exactly, which is what makes the simulation interesting because nobody really knows China's reserves clock. But with the tool, you can put your guess number and see that the game of chicken also has an expiration date for them
upcoming-sesame 3mo ago
Can't Iran be selective and only allow Chinese ships through?
- eliotho 3mo ago
  This is a nice idea. I will build this a feature on the scenarios menu. And it would give an estimate of how much time doing this buys China under different configurations
- chairmansteve 3mo ago
  The USA could block Chinese ships. Or maybe disable the loading jetties.
  - eliotho 3mo ago
    This works as the same feature reversed. Will think of a way of adding something like this
  - DANmode 3mo ago
    Ah yes, open war with a superpower. Why haven’t the USA done that already? It’s so obvious!
    - elzbardico 3mo ago
      Sometimes I think that's Trump endgame. Destroy world's economy, solve debt with massive dollar de-valuation, and uses its resource advantages to reindustrialize itself. Of course, that would fuck most of the world population, including the American Poor and The Middle Class. But I don't think this would weight too much on Trump's conscience.
  - 3eb7988a1663 3mo ago
    I have been hoping China would force this issue. Send an oil tanker through and see if the US has the balls to stop it. Either the US does and everyone gets peeved or the US lets it float away and look incredibly impotent.
    - kadoban 3mo ago
      China can get what they want, a weakened USA, just by sitting back and doing nothing. There's probably no incentive to get involved more directly.
- elzbardico 3mo ago
  It has been doing it for some time. Not full flows, but a significant number of ships have passed with a chinese destination. Probably that was the reason the US also instituted a blockage, but I don't think the US navy would shoot a chinese flagged super tanker.
alephnerd 3mo ago
> because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time... Iran's political leadership is amenable to negotiating but their incumbent military leadership which now calls the shots aren't [0][1]. The current incumbents in the IRGC and Artesh are now vets who were deployed on the frontlines in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq and are deeply anti-Western as a result. > or they (Iran) will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they (China) are providing to them... This is why Iran has been leveraging Russia as well [2][3]. Russia is trying to link the Ukraine War with the Iran War ("stop giving Ukraine targeting capabilities and we'll stop giving it to Iran"). Iran's military leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4], and because hardliners still harbor negative views of China and Eastern culture as undermining the precepts of the Islamic Revolution [5][6][7] and still calling them "uncultured orientals" (شرق زدۀ بی فرهنگ) [0] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediation-new-irgc-leaders-crisis-04-23-2026/ https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati... [1] - https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-are-stalling-irans-irgc-crisis-and-pakistans-squandered-moment/ https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-ar... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-facilities-prompt-questions-about-possible-russian-role-2026-07-22/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-f... [3] - https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Iran-Russia-Partnership_Edited.pdf https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Ir... [4] - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-disputed-gulf-islands-despite-irans-anger https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-... [5] - http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%A8/%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%B4%DB%8C_%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B6%D9%88%D8%B9%DB%8C_%D8%A8%D8%B1_%D9%88%D8%B5%DB%8C%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%80_%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C_%D9%80_%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%DB%8C_%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%85_%D8%AE%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C_%D8%B3_/%D8%A7%D8%B2_%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A8%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C_%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B2%D8%AF%DA%AF%DB%8C_%D9%88_%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%B2%D8%AF http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7... [6] - https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88-%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%85-%DB%8C%D8%A7-%DA%AF%D9%81%D8%AA-%D9%88-%DA%AF%D9%88 https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88... [7] - https://psri.ir/?id=a7q4sdl4 https://psri.ir/?id=a7q4sdl4
- 3mo ago

by tamimio 3mo ago

But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.

eliotho 3mo ago

Exactly, which is what makes the simulation interesting because nobody really knows China's reserves clock. But with the tool, you can put your guess number and see that the game of chicken also has an expiration date for them

upcoming-sesame 3mo ago

Can't Iran be selective and only allow Chinese ships through?

eliotho 3mo ago
This is a nice idea. I will build this a feature on the scenarios menu. And it would give an estimate of how much time doing this buys China under different configurations
chairmansteve 3mo ago
The USA could block Chinese ships. Or maybe disable the loading jetties.
- eliotho 3mo ago
  This works as the same feature reversed. Will think of a way of adding something like this
- DANmode 3mo ago
  Ah yes, open war with a superpower. Why haven’t the USA done that already? It’s so obvious!
  - elzbardico 3mo ago
    Sometimes I think that's Trump endgame. Destroy world's economy, solve debt with massive dollar de-valuation, and uses its resource advantages to reindustrialize itself. Of course, that would fuck most of the world population, including the American Poor and The Middle Class. But I don't think this would weight too much on Trump's conscience.
- 3eb7988a1663 3mo ago
  I have been hoping China would force this issue. Send an oil tanker through and see if the US has the balls to stop it. Either the US does and everyone gets peeved or the US lets it float away and look incredibly impotent.
  - kadoban 3mo ago
    China can get what they want, a weakened USA, just by sitting back and doing nothing. There's probably no incentive to get involved more directly.
elzbardico 3mo ago
It has been doing it for some time. Not full flows, but a significant number of ships have passed with a chinese destination. Probably that was the reason the US also instituted a blockage, but I don't think the US navy would shoot a chinese flagged super tanker.

alephnerd 3mo ago

> because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time... Iran's political leadership is amenable to negotiating but their incumbent military leadership which now calls the shots aren't [0][1]. The current incumbents in the IRGC and Artesh are now vets who were deployed on the frontlines in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq and are deeply anti-Western as a result. > or they (Iran) will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they (China) are providing to them... This is why Iran has been leveraging Russia as well [2][3]. Russia is trying to link the Ukraine War with the Iran War ("stop giving Ukraine targeting capabilities and we'll stop giving it to Iran"). Iran's military leadership doesn't trust China because they undermined Iran's position on Hormuz by backing the UAE [4], and because hardliners still harbor negative views of China and Eastern culture as undermining the precepts of the Islamic Revolution [5][6][7] and still calling them "uncultured orientals" (شرق زدۀ بی فرهنگ) [0] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediation-new-irgc-leaders-crisis-04-23-2026/ https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati... [1] - https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-are-stalling-irans-irgc-crisis-and-pakistans-squandered-moment/ https://quwa.org/podcasts/pulse-check/the-islamabad-talks-ar... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-facilities-prompt-questions-about-possible-russian-role-2026-07-22/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-cia-f... [3] - https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Iran-Russia-Partnership_Edited.pdf https://mecouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/IB-10_25-Ir... [4] - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-disputed-gulf-islands-despite-irans-anger https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-maintains-stance-on-... [5] - http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%A8/%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%B4%DB%8C_%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B6%D9%88%D8%B9%DB%8C_%D8%A8%D8%B1_%D9%88%D8%B5%DB%8C%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%80_%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C_%D9%80_%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%DB%8C_%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%85_%D8%AE%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C_%D8%B3_/%D8%A7%D8%B2_%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A8%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%DA%AF%DB%8C_%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B2%D8%AF%DA%AF%DB%8C_%D9%88_%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%B2%D8%AF http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/c78_117016/%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%A7... [6] - https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88-%D8%BA%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%85-%DB%8C%D8%A7-%DA%AF%D9%81%D8%AA-%D9%88-%DA%AF%D9%88 https://ensani.ir/fa/article/93161/%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%88... [7] - https://psri.ir/?id=a7q4sdl4 https://psri.ir/?id=a7q4sdl4

3mo ago