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I really do appreciate the effort but the data doesn’t reflect current conditions, and it’s falsified given it’s been virtually closed for months, certainly the
by refulgentis 3mo ago
I really do appreciate the effort but the data doesn’t reflect current conditions, and it’s falsified given it’s been virtually closed for months, certainly the same as 30% throughout that is the models default parameter, and we didn’t see ex. prices at $150/barrel 3 weeks in, or a host of other things it predicts.
EDIT: I’m not saying it doesn’t matter the strait is closed - it does! - it’s just, what are we to do with a model that generically tells us oil barrel prices is at $150 3 weeks in, when we are months in?
- eliotho 3mo agoThat's kind of the point because it hasn't been totally 100% closed. There's both sanctioned and unsanctioned oil flowing, which is the point of the scenarios in the simulation. Also it's more of a simulation/stress tool at a sustained closure than a prediction one
- rtpg 3mo agoThe thing I've heard now in several places is that China is drawing down its massive secret stockpile (its _greatly_ reduced imports) which counterbalances a huge amount of this I do generally agree that the theoretical model being _this_ misaligned with the reality in front of us feels a bit hard to use
- eliotho 3mo agoThat's actually the intended behavior: while reserves are silently being spend is when the crisis is brewing. Although the main point is that nobody knows China's reserves, but this allows to calibrates scenarios based on what you believe is plausible