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The Collapse at Netflix Signals the End of Audience Capture

34 points by sleepyguy 2mo ago

beanjuiceII 2mo ago
netflix is terrible there are so few watchable shows..they should take notes from apple tv which is fantastic
password54321 2mo ago
The stock market is not a reflection of reality and revenue and users are up. Software stocks are generally down because all the money is going to the current bubble (hardware) before we come back down to earth.
- toss1 2mo ago
  The article actually cites the opposite - reported users going down at many media sites, including Facebook for the first quarter ever, and Netflix now refusing to report user counts until 2027 when they used to proudly report user count increases. With that change of behavior, Netflix users are definitely NOT going up, and are likely declining
  - password54321 2mo ago
    > Netflix said it had more than 325 million subscribers worldwide as of the end of 2025 — up from 301.2 million a year prior https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/netflix-q4-2025-financial-earnings-subscribers-1236635615/ https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/netflix-q4-2025-financial-e...
    - toss1 2mo ago
      Yup, up 7.9% on that year. And until this week, they would release numbers every six months. Now they are NOT releasing numbers. If the numbers were up, they would post them. This sudden change of Netflix' reporting shows they decided it is less bad to raise the flag of halting reporting than to expose the size of the subscriber loss. That is not good. Maybe they are just fearful of showing any loss at all, or maybe it is a really large loss. Eventually, we'll know something.
      - deleted 2mo ago
        [deleted]
      - brador 2mo ago
        They’re handing out free/inclusive ad subs in some markets to prop their numbers.
leetrout 2mo ago
> The situation is so dire that even Netflix’s biggest new series of the second quarter failed to get renewed. And all the other numbers tie back to this. No one wants to invest in a story that ends on a cliffhanger to not be renewed or even worse to get season 2 that is >50% filler because the writers save up for 5 seasons and then season 2 ends on a cliffhanger to never be renewed. It's all got too much sprawl and poorer production value now. Good riddance
- vitally3643 2mo ago
  This was one of the big reasons I quit using Netflix or following new releases. Why bother investing my time into something that's only going to get killed off not because it didn't make money, but because it wasn't profitable enough? Netflix put me off of TV as a whole category, which is a pretty great thing, really.
- dixie_land 2mo ago
  Also what really annoys me as a viewer is that even on a good series that has already been renewed, the waiting between seasons has crept up from 1 year (already bad) to multiple years. Then when the new season finally comes out (in two parts!) I already lost most of the context and am not nearly as interested.
  - kwertyoowiyop 2mo ago
    And then you start to wonder if they’ll end this season on ANOTHER cliffhanger, and you reevaluate your viewing choice.
  - 3eb7988a1663 2mo ago
    The multi-year gap kills my interest. After a huge hiatus, I have forgotten key plot points, so I have to either accept that some elements will not make sense or commit to re-consuming the original season. Both of which are deeply unappealing. I keep meaning to watch Arcane season two, but the first one was so dense (not necessarily plot, but just so many little things) that I know I would be cheating myself to watch it after the sizeable gap. Yet rewatching S1 just to start S2 is such a time commitment.
dangle1 2mo ago
And the author posted a follow-on article yesterday: https://www.honest-broker.com/p/predictions-on-the-future-of-netflix https://www.honest-broker.com/p/predictions-on-the-future-of...
drweevil 2mo ago
This is a death-spiral. If a company instead adopts a sustainable, customer-centered business strategy they will be punished in the stock market for "stagnant growth," the CEO gets replaced and or a hostile takeover occurs, and there we go again.
angmarsbane 2mo ago
In my household we're back to watching TV shows from the 2000s, 4-8 seasons some of them 23 episodes. It's also kind of fun watching these characters are story plots adapt to mobile phones, blogs, and social media.
jfengel 2mo ago
Netflix always used to get a lot of crap for refusing to renew series. The "second season slump" graph suggests that they were right: viewers don't tune in for the second seasons. It doesn't matter why that is. It only matters that they put their money to something that does keep people subscribing. If they don't have the creative wherewithal, that's a different problem. It's hard to feed the gaping maw of people seeking entertainment. They hold everything they watch to the highest standards -- TV shows that cost $10 million per hour, and movies that cost $100 million per hour.
- fellowniusmonk 2mo ago
  It's like they don't understand their own business proposition around bingeable content. I mean renting scrubs DVDs made them a ton of money. There is a reason "You cannot account for taste." is a phrase. Parks and Recreation 5.97 million 4.60 million Twin Peaks 18.2 million 10.2 million Arrested Development 6.2 million 5.7 million Friday Night Lights 6.1 million 5.5 million Seinfeld 15.6 million 12.5 million (so low it was put on hiatus mid season, these are bad numbers for the time period) Even shows like Scrubs were considered a failure because even though their 2nd season numbers went up, it was only because they were put on after friends, their 3rd season saw a massive drop even though they stayed in the "after friends" timeslot. Their 3rd season is effectively their second season from an exposure/retention standpoint.
  - fellowniusmonk 2mo ago
    These are all season 1/season 2 numbers.
- 3eb7988a1663 2mo ago
  I think it would only be fair to count S2 if it immediately followed S1. A big gap means I cannot recall details from the original. Working down the list: - Night Agent: S1 2023-March, S2 2025-January => 2 years - One Piece: S1 2023-August, S2 2026-March => 3 years - Four Seasons: S1 2025-May, S2 2026-May => 1 year - Running Point: S1 2025-March, S2-2026-April => 1 year - Beef: S1 2023-April, S2 2026-April => 3 years Some of those are enormous intermissions! It is no surprise you cannot maintain an audience when you leave them hanging for so long.
Jamesbeam 2mo ago
I was wondering why Netflix was reinstating 30-day trials in some regions so suddenly. They must be really desperate to artificially boost viewer numbers.

34 points by sleepyguy 2mo ago

netflix is terrible there are so few watchable shows..they should take notes from apple tv which is fantastic

The stock market is not a reflection of reality and revenue and users are up. Software stocks are generally down because all the money is going to the current bubble (hardware) before we come back down to earth.

toss1 2mo ago
The article actually cites the opposite - reported users going down at many media sites, including Facebook for the first quarter ever, and Netflix now refusing to report user counts until 2027 when they used to proudly report user count increases. With that change of behavior, Netflix users are definitely NOT going up, and are likely declining
- password54321 2mo ago
  > Netflix said it had more than 325 million subscribers worldwide as of the end of 2025 — up from 301.2 million a year prior https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/netflix-q4-2025-financial-earnings-subscribers-1236635615/ https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/netflix-q4-2025-financial-e...
  - toss1 2mo ago
    Yup, up 7.9% on that year. And until this week, they would release numbers every six months. Now they are NOT releasing numbers. If the numbers were up, they would post them. This sudden change of Netflix' reporting shows they decided it is less bad to raise the flag of halting reporting than to expose the size of the subscriber loss. That is not good. Maybe they are just fearful of showing any loss at all, or maybe it is a really large loss. Eventually, we'll know something.
    - deleted 2mo ago
      [deleted]
    - brador 2mo ago
      They’re handing out free/inclusive ad subs in some markets to prop their numbers.

leetrout 2mo ago

> The situation is so dire that even Netflix’s biggest new series of the second quarter failed to get renewed. And all the other numbers tie back to this. No one wants to invest in a story that ends on a cliffhanger to not be renewed or even worse to get season 2 that is >50% filler because the writers save up for 5 seasons and then season 2 ends on a cliffhanger to never be renewed. It's all got too much sprawl and poorer production value now. Good riddance

vitally3643 2mo ago
This was one of the big reasons I quit using Netflix or following new releases. Why bother investing my time into something that's only going to get killed off not because it didn't make money, but because it wasn't profitable enough? Netflix put me off of TV as a whole category, which is a pretty great thing, really.
dixie_land 2mo ago
Also what really annoys me as a viewer is that even on a good series that has already been renewed, the waiting between seasons has crept up from 1 year (already bad) to multiple years. Then when the new season finally comes out (in two parts!) I already lost most of the context and am not nearly as interested.
- kwertyoowiyop 2mo ago
  And then you start to wonder if they’ll end this season on ANOTHER cliffhanger, and you reevaluate your viewing choice.
- 3eb7988a1663 2mo ago
  The multi-year gap kills my interest. After a huge hiatus, I have forgotten key plot points, so I have to either accept that some elements will not make sense or commit to re-consuming the original season. Both of which are deeply unappealing. I keep meaning to watch Arcane season two, but the first one was so dense (not necessarily plot, but just so many little things) that I know I would be cheating myself to watch it after the sizeable gap. Yet rewatching S1 just to start S2 is such a time commitment.

dangle1 2mo ago

And the author posted a follow-on article yesterday: https://www.honest-broker.com/p/predictions-on-the-future-of-netflix https://www.honest-broker.com/p/predictions-on-the-future-of...

drweevil 2mo ago

This is a death-spiral. If a company instead adopts a sustainable, customer-centered business strategy they will be punished in the stock market for "stagnant growth," the CEO gets replaced and or a hostile takeover occurs, and there we go again.

angmarsbane 2mo ago

In my household we're back to watching TV shows from the 2000s, 4-8 seasons some of them 23 episodes. It's also kind of fun watching these characters are story plots adapt to mobile phones, blogs, and social media.

jfengel 2mo ago

Netflix always used to get a lot of crap for refusing to renew series. The "second season slump" graph suggests that they were right: viewers don't tune in for the second seasons. It doesn't matter why that is. It only matters that they put their money to something that does keep people subscribing. If they don't have the creative wherewithal, that's a different problem. It's hard to feed the gaping maw of people seeking entertainment. They hold everything they watch to the highest standards -- TV shows that cost $10 million per hour, and movies that cost $100 million per hour.

fellowniusmonk 2mo ago
It's like they don't understand their own business proposition around bingeable content. I mean renting scrubs DVDs made them a ton of money. There is a reason "You cannot account for taste." is a phrase. Parks and Recreation 5.97 million 4.60 million Twin Peaks 18.2 million 10.2 million Arrested Development 6.2 million 5.7 million Friday Night Lights 6.1 million 5.5 million Seinfeld 15.6 million 12.5 million (so low it was put on hiatus mid season, these are bad numbers for the time period) Even shows like Scrubs were considered a failure because even though their 2nd season numbers went up, it was only because they were put on after friends, their 3rd season saw a massive drop even though they stayed in the "after friends" timeslot. Their 3rd season is effectively their second season from an exposure/retention standpoint.
- fellowniusmonk 2mo ago
  These are all season 1/season 2 numbers.
3eb7988a1663 2mo ago
I think it would only be fair to count S2 if it immediately followed S1. A big gap means I cannot recall details from the original. Working down the list: - Night Agent: S1 2023-March, S2 2025-January => 2 years - One Piece: S1 2023-August, S2 2026-March => 3 years - Four Seasons: S1 2025-May, S2 2026-May => 1 year - Running Point: S1 2025-March, S2-2026-April => 1 year - Beef: S1 2023-April, S2 2026-April => 3 years Some of those are enormous intermissions! It is no surprise you cannot maintain an audience when you leave them hanging for so long.

Jamesbeam 2mo ago

I was wondering why Netflix was reinstating 30-day trials in some regions so suddenly. They must be really desperate to artificially boost viewer numbers.