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tl;dr; - Scientists did DNA testing on the remains of the Grand Duke and his wife, and found malaria. The rival theory is poisoning by the relative who was nex

tl;dr; - Scientists did DNA testing on the remains of the Grand Duke and his wife, and found malaria. The rival theory is poisoning by the relative who was next in line for the Ducal throne. HOWEVER, this test result solves nothing: > But is there any guarantee that Francesco was not also poisoned? > “Perhaps not,” Ochoa said, “but the genetic evidence presented in our study decreases the margin for speculation.” > Gisella Caccone, a senior research scientist also at Yale and a study coauthor, agrees. “We can say that they had malaria, we cannot say that they were not poisoned as well,” Caccone said in an email.

shermantanktop 3mo ago
Maybe they were poisoned, had malaria, were stabbed, and also suffocated and drowned, all at the same time? "solves" is a silly thing to ask for in matters of probability. I think this test result adds data which shifts probabilities, and that's the best we'll get.
- themgt 3mo ago
  Maybe they were poisoned, had malaria, were stabbed, and also suffocated and drowned, all at the same time? Just now learning Grigori Rasputin died of malaria.
- bell-cot 3mo ago
  > "Solves" is a silly thing to ask for... Maybe? If testing of their remains had revealed (say) LD95 of arsenic, or some other poison well-known at the time, it'd be pretty reasonable to call that "solved". (At least as to their cause of death. It wouldn't establish the perpetrator.)
  - shermantanktop 3mo ago
    The justice system works in binary: legal vs. illegal, guilty vs. innocent, admissible vs. not. The whole process is dominated by driving uncertainty into binary certainty, with threshold tests at every turn. Reality as experienced in the moment is often binary (I am walking vs sitting) but is often murkily probabilistic (am I am tired because I am jet-lagged, or because I flew to give a high stakes presentation?). History is also a mix, but facts become murkier the older they are. So sure, LD95 sounds pretty much like we would have solved it. But if enough people wanted them dead, it’s not impossible that a lethal dose could coincide with some other cause of death. That could be my defense if I were on trial for it.
senshan 3mo ago
Right. If one lives in an area prone to malaria, has good immune system, will the body tend to carry the antibodies all the time?
- colingauvin 3mo ago
  Yes, which is why the immunological tests done in 2006 were not seen as conclusive. However, this time they found actual plasmodium DNA which suggests active infection at time of death. Including from two species, suggesting double infection. Fun.
  - senshan 3mo ago
    Interesting. Little brother brought a new version of malaria to try...
  - prmph 3mo ago
    I live in Ghana, we have malaria as a common (not too common though) ailment. I have also had malaria several times, though the last time was almost 9 years ago. As I understand it, some malaria parasites can remain dormant in the body for a long time. Clinical symptoms develop once the parasite burden and immune response become sufficient to cause illness. Not sure if the couple had made trips to Tuscany before the last one, but it is interesting they found two species of malaria pathogens. I thought that was also an interesting angle to consider.
    - toyg 3mo ago
      > Not sure if the couple had made trips to Tuscany before Dude, they were the royal family of Tuscany. They lived there. Which is why this test is not conclusive: sure, they had malaria, but at the time it was pretty common in the region and they likely had it for a long time.
      - prmph 3mo ago
        Sorry, I meant if the couple were regular visitors to those areas in Tuscany known for malaria. I do agree that this test is still inconclusive, which was the point of my original comment. From TFA: > “Francesco and Giovanni, a young member of the family, both traveled 25 years apart to areas of Tuscany which were known for malaria,” Giuffra said. “The court physicians tried to discourage some members of the Medici family from doing these trips, especially in autumn, which was a season particularly favorable for malaria...”
foobarian 3mo ago
Or, maybe the poisoner did it by releasing a jar of malaria-laden mosquitoes in the guy's bedroom. Such plausible deniability!

shermantanktop 3mo ago

Maybe they were poisoned, had malaria, were stabbed, and also suffocated and drowned, all at the same time? "solves" is a silly thing to ask for in matters of probability. I think this test result adds data which shifts probabilities, and that's the best we'll get.

themgt 3mo ago
Maybe they were poisoned, had malaria, were stabbed, and also suffocated and drowned, all at the same time? Just now learning Grigori Rasputin died of malaria.
bell-cot 3mo ago
> "Solves" is a silly thing to ask for... Maybe? If testing of their remains had revealed (say) LD95 of arsenic, or some other poison well-known at the time, it'd be pretty reasonable to call that "solved". (At least as to their cause of death. It wouldn't establish the perpetrator.)
- shermantanktop 3mo ago
  The justice system works in binary: legal vs. illegal, guilty vs. innocent, admissible vs. not. The whole process is dominated by driving uncertainty into binary certainty, with threshold tests at every turn. Reality as experienced in the moment is often binary (I am walking vs sitting) but is often murkily probabilistic (am I am tired because I am jet-lagged, or because I flew to give a high stakes presentation?). History is also a mix, but facts become murkier the older they are. So sure, LD95 sounds pretty much like we would have solved it. But if enough people wanted them dead, it’s not impossible that a lethal dose could coincide with some other cause of death. That could be my defense if I were on trial for it.

senshan 3mo ago

Right. If one lives in an area prone to malaria, has good immune system, will the body tend to carry the antibodies all the time?

colingauvin 3mo ago
Yes, which is why the immunological tests done in 2006 were not seen as conclusive. However, this time they found actual plasmodium DNA which suggests active infection at time of death. Including from two species, suggesting double infection. Fun.
- senshan 3mo ago
  Interesting. Little brother brought a new version of malaria to try...
- prmph 3mo ago
  I live in Ghana, we have malaria as a common (not too common though) ailment. I have also had malaria several times, though the last time was almost 9 years ago. As I understand it, some malaria parasites can remain dormant in the body for a long time. Clinical symptoms develop once the parasite burden and immune response become sufficient to cause illness. Not sure if the couple had made trips to Tuscany before the last one, but it is interesting they found two species of malaria pathogens. I thought that was also an interesting angle to consider.
  - toyg 3mo ago
    > Not sure if the couple had made trips to Tuscany before Dude, they were the royal family of Tuscany. They lived there. Which is why this test is not conclusive: sure, they had malaria, but at the time it was pretty common in the region and they likely had it for a long time.
    - prmph 3mo ago
      Sorry, I meant if the couple were regular visitors to those areas in Tuscany known for malaria. I do agree that this test is still inconclusive, which was the point of my original comment. From TFA: > “Francesco and Giovanni, a young member of the family, both traveled 25 years apart to areas of Tuscany which were known for malaria,” Giuffra said. “The court physicians tried to discourage some members of the Medici family from doing these trips, especially in autumn, which was a season particularly favorable for malaria...”

foobarian 3mo ago

Or, maybe the poisoner did it by releasing a jar of malaria-laden mosquitoes in the guy's bedroom. Such plausible deniability!