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It's not really a bell curve. There was obviously a downwards trend from 2016 onwards, but 2023 definitely precipitated the fall to zero. Without AI they might
by fluoridation 3mo ago
It's not really a bell curve. There was obviously a downwards trend from 2016 onwards, but 2023 definitely precipitated the fall to zero. Without AI they might have lasted at least a couple more years, or the activity might have stabilized to a new floor greater than zero.
- shevy-java 3mo agoI am not sure. I think SO died way before AI and that graph seems incorrect too. > Without AI they might have lasted at least a couple more years Nah, their decline was already readily apparent before AI. You only need to go through old discussions and other people noticing it. AI may have accelerated the decay, but the decline happened already largely prior to AI.
- khalic 3mo agohttps://postimg.cc/n9nZGLmb https://postimg.cc/n9nZGLmb Goodness of Fit 0.911, Kurtosis -0.849, Skewness: 0.073 It's very much a bell curve
- fluoridation 3mo agoJust because it's approximated by a bell curve doesn't make it a bell curve. There are quite obvious separate phenomena shaping the curve at different times.
- khalic 3mo ago> just because it's approximated by a bell curve doesn't make it a bell curve I'm going to assume this is bait...
- jdlshore 3mo agoBell curves are probability distributions. This is a time series, so it can’t be a bell curve. It just has the same shape.
- khalic 3mo agoAre you discarding the utility of Gaussian functions in analysis simply because the independent variable is time? A Gaussian curve can be used as a descriptive model without claiming that the observations themselves are a probability distribution The fit does not prove causation, but it does show that the decline was already well described by a trend that began years before generative AI. If the claim is that 2023 created a separate structural break, it's different claim then the title describes
- samatman 3mo agoYou can't call it a bell curve unless it's from the Charles Murray region. It's just sparkling statistics.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- strken 3mo agoDo you mean "just because it's a bell curve, doesn't make it a normal distribution"?
- fluoridation 3mo agoNo, I meant what I said.
- 3uruiueijjj 3mo agoThose graphs look nothing alike, except for "going up and then vaguely going down."
- khalic 3mo agoI don't know what to say other than learn math
- yorwba 3mo agoYou mean the fall to a thousand questions per month. Now that the volume is low enough someone has a chance of looking at every single one of them, maybe the StackOverflow community can finally collaborate in peace, safe from the onslaught of questions that could be answered by reading the documentation.