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SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock
- himata4113 3mo agoHasn't the stock already collapsed below IPO price? Does that mean the IPO was simply overpriced? Do these people expect the stock to go down even further? Shorting is way more risky I don't see why this would be the case unless my questions turned out to be predictions.
- hattmall 3mo agoYes, people expect it to trade much lower, around $40 per share, still would be a huge valuation for what the company has done. Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T, but the consensus $2T required 100x revenue multiple by 2030. If revenue was less than 10x by 2030 it's less than $100B company, and only $6B if it remains flat. So a lot of downsides and the upside requires a continuation of some insane magic.
- AviationAtom 3mo agoI haven't seen anything saying $40. The lowest I have seen is $70.
- axus 3mo agoVerizon + AT&T + Boeing was my estimate for SpaceX value.
- rconti 3mo agoFrom TFA: > "I think it could be half over the course of the year," Noble said, adding that he believes a fair value for the shares is around $30, implying a decline of roughly 78% from current levels.
- AviationAtom 3mo agoThat's an absurd valuation. Typically stocks are valued at what people are willing to pay, with earnings partially driving that value.
- mattas 3mo agoA rational person isn't willing to pay more than the present value of future cash flows. Just like how a rational person wouldn't pay $101 for a $100 bill. Where it gets fun is that: (1) we have people selling $100 bills for more than $100 and, (2) we have people gladly buying $100 bills for more than $100.
- unknownfuture 3mo agoI'd argue the opposite. If the price is largely vibes, you could see wild swings if sentiment changes dramatically. The bitcoin market is an excellent example of this. Worse, the recent BBB- rating on their bond issuance suggests a lack of lender confidence, and if their stock continues to decline those factors could compound.
- kirubakaran 3mo ago> Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T What a weird way for them to say "we don't know"! It's like saying this house has 0 to 100 bathrooms.
- hattmall 3mo agoTrue, but it's the range from different analysts. Saying "we don't know" isn't really an option. Gotta say something when your IPOing a trillion dollar company.
- PaulDavisThe1st 3mo ago"So you're saying there's a chance? It might actually be possible to have 100 bathrooms! I knew it!"
- marcosdumay 3mo agoTo keep the proportions correct, it's between a model house the size of a piece of paper or a normal 2-bedrooms.
- bigbuppo 3mo agoI would say it's more like 600 sq ft to 5000 sq ft. Nobody knows.
- downrightmike 3mo agoJPM still thinks its a $300 stock
- jgalt212 3mo agoso does Jack Grubman, after being instructed to take a "fresh look" at it.
- ryandvm 3mo agoIt is... as long as somebody else thinks so.
- hnburnsy 3mo agoFor months (years?) JPM thought Tesla was a $130 to $150 stock, until JPM helped out on the SPCX IPO, and wouldn't you know it, replaced the Tesla analyst, current target $475. My point don't listen to ANY stock analysts. >J.P. Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta just took over the investment bank's coverage of Tesla's stock (TSLA), and in doing so, he lifted the firm's rating to neutral from underweight. The previous analyst, Ryan Brinkman, was a fairly vocal Tesla bear who warned just two months ago that investors should treat the stock with a "high degree of caution."Brinkman's previous price target of $145 implied 65% downside from Thursday's closing price of $418.45. But Gupta has now raised J.P. Morgan's Tesla target to $475 in conjunction with the upgrade. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260605179/jp-morgan-ends-bearish-tesla-call-that-was-predicting-a-65-stock-drop https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260605179/jp-...
- Alive-in-2025 3mo agoTesla is another crazily overpriced stock but first my pointless take on spaceX. (1) SpaceX has a huge number of restricted shares coming onto the market soon as this thread has discussed. (2) SpaceX has incredible tech (reuse, internet, engines, scale, reliability), yet in the past week Japan demonstrated a rocket hovering and landing, and China launched a rocket to space and caught it/landed it. So SPCX tech is incredible, but China has basically done everything SpaceX has done except relaunch and launch reliably at scale. Those aren't trivial things but I see within a couple of years there will be competitors doing what SpaceX has been doing. Matching the reliable launch will likely take longer. No one has anything like Starship and their fantastic engines, but that's not done yet. Let's not forget about upcoming space internet competitors. I put all this together and see they are crazily overvalued and still has potential to be do well too. I kept wanting to short it and short Tesla too, but Tesla has been stubbornly resisting me. Tesla's PE is down to 357 at the moment. It has hovered around 400. Incredibly profitable and trustworthy (for non EVs) Toyota has a PE of 9.x. Nine! GM is 28, and Chinese companies are making the best EVs but more importantly have better battery and drivetrain tech in the field and faster charging. They are blocked from the US but apparently Canada will now allow them. Tesla doesn't have anything over them, including price. Tesla makes great cars, Musk is awful. I have an over 10 year old tesla and it is still a great car. Tesla's future worth is because of meme stockness, optimus robots (which they still have been demoing with human remote control misleadingly), battery storage, xAI (eventually they'll do something worthwhile, right, more than illegal removing the clothes off people videos? at least they are making something off selling their extra inference capacity), and robotaxis. robotaxi tech would cool if it worked, every few months Musk embarasses himself by announcing it's going nationwide by the end of the year or something similar that never happens. But is this going to make billions? Doubtful, and Waymo will be there to drive it down to not be that profitable. And waymo actually does 500k rides per week in 10 cities. Does tesla do 500 a week yet? So Tesla is overvalued, and also, a miracle could occur and they could come up with software to make the robot do something useful - they are still overvalued even with that. They just don't have that great robot brain. Maybe LLMs will solve that eventually. But tesla is at 350 PE, they need a reduction of about 15 times in stock price to get to a reasonable PE of 23. Their sales went up last quarter but they were behind their all time high sales and Musk destroyed their reputation. Let's say tesla is only 10x overpriced based on PE. So they should lose 90% of their stock price!? It's a meme stock but it should go down.
- mikeryan 3mo agoI think the pullback from the initial IPO bump was expected. I think the news here is expectations that it has a lot more downside to come. Particularly once it gets past the lockup period. If I had to guess I say a lot of folks are thinking a lot of people will sell post lock up and they’re timing their shorts around that date.
- anthonj 3mo agoTbh I'm no5 sure I've even seen an IPO where the price didn't collapse initially.
- dofm 3mo agoMore than half of IPOs fall below their price in the first year and AFAIK it’s something like more than half underperforming market over the first five. Basically an IPO is a bad bet for a five year position. But SPCX is especially bad.
- mrweasel 3mo agoI wouldn't say that it collapsed, it's only slightly under its IPO price, $134 vs. $135. However it's not going up and later this month the first lockup period ends and people who got stock options are allowed to sell some of their stocks. These people don't care if the price is $134 or $135, because they go in much much lower, down to $30, from what I can tell. So starting this month there's going to be new shares available to buy, and the sellers are less critical of the price your offering.
- verzali 3mo agoDown to $124 already today...
- chuckadams 3mo ago[flagged]
- AviationAtom 3mo agoAnyone that thinks Musk approaches anything for short-term results doesn't understand Musk.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- sneurlax 3mo agoanything nonhuman*
- CamperBob2 3mo ago[flagged]
- Rover222 3mo agoit's so weird and kinda disturbing how many people really believe that was a Nazi salute. It's so easy shape public opinion with media and algorithms. Same thing happening with "datacenters will destory the world because of their water use" BS
- dofm 3mo ago[flagged]
- chuckadams 3mo agoI personally think he really is a fascist, but I still don't think he was deliberately throwing out a Nazi salute. Just naive about waving to a crowd in front of a camera, which is very on-brand for him.
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- quantummagic 3mo agoEvery single shorted stock, was purchased by someone else who is taking the long side of the trade. So there's as many people betting the stock will go up. This says more about volatility and volume of trading, than anything else.
- tpurves 3mo agoYou are assuming there are not naked shorts out there.
- quantummagic 3mo agoThey're illegal, and you can look at them just as the broker making a long bet themselves. Since they'll have to pay off the short seller, if the stock goes down.
- koolba 3mo agoThere’s always a buyer on the other side of a short, naked or located. The question is whether the originating broker actually borrowed the shares. They are supposed to verify that before they place the trade and generally do follow the rules. Because if they don’t, they will be not allowed to allow any short sales for that security.
- junto 3mo ago> They are supposed to verify that before they place the trade and generally do follow the rules. Because if they don’t, they will be not allowed to allow any short sales for that security. SEC is clearly ignoring FTD’s and as a result allowing MM’s to reloan unlocated synthetic shares. Which is exactly what happened in 2008 with mortgage backed securities and CDO’s.
- chuckadams 3mo agoGiven the continued downward trend, it may be the buyers may just be disagreeing on how fast it drops, not necessarily taking a long term buy and hold position. I don't know much about option pricing, but aren't put options basically betting on the spread?
- orsorna 3mo agoOver two weeks ago, calls outnumbered puts 5 to 1 according to an article by SeekingAlpha. I am wondering if this flip is too reactive. I can't discount the "Musk premium" that keeps people enamored with his securities and cause unpredictability.
- seanhunter 3mo agoThat just means lots of people are writing calls[1] [1] ie are happy to be synthetically short the stock and see a demand for the calls
- fsuts 3mo agoIn a few weeks the pre-ipo share owners can offload the first batch of their shares (after q2 results release) So guessing non investors in SpaceX are shorting for this event in expectation of a drop
- echrisinger 3mo agoTypically this would be prohibited (at least as an employee)
- cj 3mo agoIf you have holdings that are locked up, are you allowed to short stock or use options to hedge your position?
- unknownfuture 3mo agoNo. Typically lockup agreements prevent any kind of trading of derivative or synthetic positions (think: shorts, swaps, options, etc).
- BobbyJo 3mo agoAlmost certainly, outside of standard trade restriction windows. I don't think they have any control over what you do in the market outside of preventing insider trading.
- unknownfuture 3mo agoYes they absolutely can and do. Lockup provisions are contractual and typically quite strict.
- hobonation 3mo agoNo. Especially not if you have friends who could short the stock and you come to some sort of pocket agreement that never sees the light of day. Especially then.
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- hnburnsy 3mo agoFrom Matt Levine just today... https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-07-16/shorts-will-sell-you-spacex https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-07-16/sho... Right now, SpaceX has provided 639 million shares to trade. People want more. In a month, there will be 1,583 million shares to trade. But right now, there are actually 820 million shares to trade: the 639 million provided by SpaceX, plus another 181 million provided by short sellers.
- downrightmike 3mo ago$4T was 20% of all US currency ever printed in 2020. What makes this worth 10%? China and Japan are already catching up. This was just a bag drop on retail and trying to force it into retirement funds proves it.
- noja 3mo agoDo the short sellers actually hold shares?
- saghm 3mo agoI guess that depends on your definition of "hold"? The entire concept of short-selling requires that you're selling the shares from from someone who would presumably not otherwise be selling given that they're stipulating that they get the shares back afterwards. I think the point is that if those short sellers weren't there, there would just be fewer shares available to buy because the ones who are letting the short sellers borrow theirs would just be holding onto them.
- compiler-guy 3mo agoThey borrowed the shares and held those borrowed shares briefly, and sold them. So they don't hold them any longer, but they do have a contract where they are required to buy them later. The original owner doesn't hold the shares either, but they do have a contract for them to be returned. As a practical matter, this effectively creates shares, just like a bank loaning money creates money.
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- glimshe 3mo agoSpaceX's core business is transferring money from believers in Elon Musk's enrichment schemes to banks and short sellers.
- kibwen 3mo agoNot quite, it's also about transferring money to the Saudi princes who financed his buyout of Twitter.
- ge96 3mo agoI just hope this doesn't destroy the company that would suck lose their edge and then China comes in
- mattas 3mo agoNo one forced them to IPO well above the present value of their future cash flows. Or claim their TAM was $28 trillion.
- roryirvine 3mo agoYes, you'd expect the Falcon 9-based space launch and Starlink businesses to retain some sort of value whatever happens. They could easily be sold off as going concerns if things were to go south. The failure of SpaceX might doom xAI and Mars colonisation, but it's very unlikely to wipe out American medium lift launch capabilities.
- dgellow 3mo agoAnd to merge with twitter and an unprofitable ai lab
- Rover222 3mo agoThere's another Starship launch today. It'll be interesting to watch the stock price react to the failures and successes of their testing campaign.
- verzali 3mo agoDown quite sharply in response to the aborted launch.
- ButlerianJihad 3mo agoIt would seem extremely dumb for a market stock to move significantly, based only on livestreams of designated test missions. I mean wow, the Starship test flight today probably gave a lot of useful data during the countdown and fueling and preparations. I sort of had deja vu because there was recently another aborted launch (Electron? Rocket Lab?) where the engines ignited at T-00:00, and shut down immediately. It was honestly majestic to watch that machine shut down gracefully and abort for the day. Nonetheless, it failed to influence my stock purchase decisions in the slightest.
- Eisenstein 3mo agoWhat does influence your stock purchase decisions?
- ButlerianJihad 3mo agoYour mom's nightly satisfaction ratings. > It's huge and impressive and has lots of development work left. That's a "strong buy" signal
- Eisenstein 3mo agoI shall assume that as much thoughtfulness goes into your stock trading as went into that response.
- 3mo ago
- ChrisArchitect 3mo agoRelated: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48933344 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48933344 SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48920181 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48920181
- mikewarot 3mo agoI'm not crazy enough to try to short it, but getting out of the money put options a year or two out seems like a good idea. If you're going to short it, you better have a buffer big enough to cover it going up to $500 for a moment somewhere before Elon is free to sell next summer. Someone will do a short squeeze, and slowly sell into it.
- xracy 3mo agoI feel like market cap valuations should have some way to factor in the supply/demand constraints. I know that float exists as a concept, but I think it's insane to call SpaceX a Trillion dollar company, when if it started selling significant stock tomorrow, it would probably be selling pennies on the dollar.
- lotsofpulp 3mo agoTons of people and bots are saying insane things all the time. It is your choice to pay attention to insane things, or to ignore them and pay attention to the (presumably reputable) numbers.
- nickff 3mo agoYou can be that factor! Short sell the stock, and use the money to invest in a more-accurately valued business.
- compiler-guy 3mo agoMost company's stock would fall pretty hard if all the holders decided to sell at the same time. So although Google, say, technically has a huge float on a percentage basis, because none of the big three holders (Eric Schmidt, Larry Page, and Sergey Brin) are selling any significant amount of their shares, the practical float is much lower.
- JumpinJack_Cash 3mo agoThe liquidity problem affects all the stocks, some more than others
- JumpinJack_Cash 3mo agoSpace is old news, it had its moment of euphoria but then AI came around and made space bulls look like fools, because sooner or later quality of life matters and as overvalued as AI could be, it's 1000x more real than space for QOL
- thereitgoes456 3mo ago95% of SpaceX's valuation is in AI.
- JumpinJack_Cash 3mo agoSure thing brother