3 ms·
That almost makes it worse—like they're vaguely aware that training too heavily on too small a data set makes badly trained models, but are unaware that it has
by mcphage 3mo ago
That almost makes it worse—like they're vaguely aware that training too heavily on too small a data set makes badly trained models, but are unaware that it has a name and is an actual identified problem.
- notahacker 3mo agoThey've even described how they overfitted it! For five world cups, a simple model based on ranking and goal difference in the group stages[1] predicted it four times, so they invented a somewhat subjective variable on defensive strength to cover the teams that didn't score much... [1]yes, both of those are endogenous variables...
- fabioricardo7 3mo agoI appreciate everyone's feedback. This is a preprint, and I was looking exactly for this kind of constructive scrutiny to help improve the work. The data is limited, and I'm well aware of that. I just thought this would be a good first step, with encouraging results (and, after today's match, accurate ones too).