5 ms·

Trying to create a monopoly before the lack of antitrust enforcement window closes.

toomuchtodo 3mo ago
No reason it can’t be broken apart in the future. States will likely file suit, as twelve already have regarding the Paramount Warner deal.
- pessimizer 3mo ago
  You mean that Paramount-Warner deal that people waited and let happen so they could break it up in the future?
  - toomuchtodo 3mo ago
    The deal that a low regulatory executive administration is supporting, while states attempt to prevent it (acting in place of what one would expect from an appropriately functioning Dept of Justice and FTC) until regime change. Midterms are approaching, and this admin has a bit more than two years left. Some folks involved are either at, or beyond, human life expectancy as well. Sort of but not quite similar to Brexit, which barely eeked by, and now all of the old pensioners who supported it are dead after a decade and the country is ready to consider getting back into the EU. TLDR This low regulatory period of the US political timeline will eventually end, and there will be a lookback/clawback period. Nothing is permanent. Rules can be changed at any time.
    - digitaltrees 3mo ago
      Except the general trend has not been equal degrees of snap back but rather a general trend towards market consolidation, deregulation, lowering taxes and eliminating anti trust enforcement. If we went back to the regulation immediately post world War this country would feel profoundly different.
    - toomuchtodo 3mo ago
      Judge halts Paramount's $111B purchase of Warner Bros. in win for US states - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48989518 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48989518 - July 2026 https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.474157/gov.uscourts.cand.474157.141.0_4.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.47...
ergocoder 3mo ago
I doubt Stripe is anywhere near the monopoly status.
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
- nickjj 3mo ago
  Back when selling online tech courses was viable (pre-AI), about 30% of transactions in the US were from folks using PayPal on the platform I used. There's a huge of people who use PayPal, it's even more outside of the US.
  - ergocoder 3mo ago
    It's the same argument why Google isn't never considered a monopoly to the online ads space. Because the whole ads industry is much larger. Same thing with card payments. There are online card payments and in-store card payments and other kinds of payments. Stripe + Paypal volume is considered a fraction of it.
- seanclayton 3mo ago
  How else would you accept credit card payments on your website? Who are the competitors you would reach for?
dlcarrier 3mo ago
In the US, PayPal has nowhere near the adoption of other countries, for making payments directly between accounts, and Visa and Mastercard have enough regulatory capture to ensure it stays that way. If there wasn't a regulation-ensured duopoly, everyone would be switching to RTP or FedNow which each charge 4.5¢ per transaction, without an additional commission.
- digitaltrees 3mo ago
  What is the regulatory capture? Visa and master card have contract terms that ensure retail capture. That’s a private moat not regulation.
  - charlieyu1 3mo ago
    What’s stopping a new competitor to come in apart from regulations? You would expect someone already trying that given how profitable it is
    - deleted 3mo ago
      [deleted]
    - digitaltrees 3mo ago
      The contracts with merchants prohibited them from accepting other forms of payment. https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-visa-monopolizing-debit-markets https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-s...
    - socalgal2 3mo ago
      Yea, I think you have this one backward? it's lack of regulation that allows Mastercard and Visa to say "if you do try to use some other payment process you can't use us". Since MC and Visa own all of it, no business can take that hit to their customer base Some other countries don't have this issue for various reasons.
      - charlieyu1 3mo ago
brikym 3mo ago
If there is a cartel it's at the Visa & Mastercard layer surely.
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
- reddalo 3mo ago
  I can't wait for Europe to come up with an alternative for Visa & Mastercard. European business pay a "hidden" tax to the US on everything, in the form of Visa & Mastercard commissions.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 3mo ago
    Which (a) the EU can and does regulate (b) the majority of the commission goes to the issuing bank. I hate feeling as if I'm defending Visa or Mastercard, but if we're going to attack them, let's get our storytelling correct first.
    - digitaltrees 3mo ago
      That's fair but it does end up flowing through the US right?
- digitaltrees 3mo ago
  I agree with this for in-person payments. But surely stripe has a monopoly on development api payments and PayPal on e-commerce. What i would expect is that visa Master card try to buy the stripe/PayPal.

No reason it can’t be broken apart in the future. States will likely file suit, as twelve already have regarding the Paramount Warner deal.

pessimizer 3mo ago
You mean that Paramount-Warner deal that people waited and let happen so they could break it up in the future?
- toomuchtodo 3mo ago
  The deal that a low regulatory executive administration is supporting, while states attempt to prevent it (acting in place of what one would expect from an appropriately functioning Dept of Justice and FTC) until regime change. Midterms are approaching, and this admin has a bit more than two years left. Some folks involved are either at, or beyond, human life expectancy as well. Sort of but not quite similar to Brexit, which barely eeked by, and now all of the old pensioners who supported it are dead after a decade and the country is ready to consider getting back into the EU. TLDR This low regulatory period of the US political timeline will eventually end, and there will be a lookback/clawback period. Nothing is permanent. Rules can be changed at any time.
  - digitaltrees 3mo ago
    Except the general trend has not been equal degrees of snap back but rather a general trend towards market consolidation, deregulation, lowering taxes and eliminating anti trust enforcement. If we went back to the regulation immediately post world War this country would feel profoundly different.
  - toomuchtodo 3mo ago
    Judge halts Paramount's $111B purchase of Warner Bros. in win for US states - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48989518 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48989518 - July 2026 https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.474157/gov.uscourts.cand.474157.141.0_4.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.47...

ergocoder 3mo ago

I doubt Stripe is anywhere near the monopoly status.

deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]
nickjj 3mo ago
Back when selling online tech courses was viable (pre-AI), about 30% of transactions in the US were from folks using PayPal on the platform I used. There's a huge of people who use PayPal, it's even more outside of the US.
- ergocoder 3mo ago
  It's the same argument why Google isn't never considered a monopoly to the online ads space. Because the whole ads industry is much larger. Same thing with card payments. There are online card payments and in-store card payments and other kinds of payments. Stripe + Paypal volume is considered a fraction of it.
seanclayton 3mo ago
How else would you accept credit card payments on your website? Who are the competitors you would reach for?

dlcarrier 3mo ago

In the US, PayPal has nowhere near the adoption of other countries, for making payments directly between accounts, and Visa and Mastercard have enough regulatory capture to ensure it stays that way. If there wasn't a regulation-ensured duopoly, everyone would be switching to RTP or FedNow which each charge 4.5¢ per transaction, without an additional commission.

digitaltrees 3mo ago
What is the regulatory capture? Visa and master card have contract terms that ensure retail capture. That’s a private moat not regulation.
- charlieyu1 3mo ago
  What’s stopping a new competitor to come in apart from regulations? You would expect someone already trying that given how profitable it is
  - deleted 3mo ago
    [deleted]
  - digitaltrees 3mo ago
    The contracts with merchants prohibited them from accepting other forms of payment. https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-visa-monopolizing-debit-markets https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-s...
  - socalgal2 3mo ago
    Yea, I think you have this one backward? it's lack of regulation that allows Mastercard and Visa to say "if you do try to use some other payment process you can't use us". Since MC and Visa own all of it, no business can take that hit to their customer base Some other countries don't have this issue for various reasons.
    - charlieyu1 3mo ago

brikym 3mo ago

If there is a cartel it's at the Visa & Mastercard layer surely.

deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]
reddalo 3mo ago
I can't wait for Europe to come up with an alternative for Visa & Mastercard. European business pay a "hidden" tax to the US on everything, in the form of Visa & Mastercard commissions.
- PaulDavisThe1st 3mo ago
  Which (a) the EU can and does regulate (b) the majority of the commission goes to the issuing bank. I hate feeling as if I'm defending Visa or Mastercard, but if we're going to attack them, let's get our storytelling correct first.
  - digitaltrees 3mo ago
    That's fair but it does end up flowing through the US right?
digitaltrees 3mo ago
I agree with this for in-person payments. But surely stripe has a monopoly on development api payments and PayPal on e-commerce. What i would expect is that visa Master card try to buy the stripe/PayPal.