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I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds and into a money market on June 1st. In the 1.5 months since, the remaining Target Date

I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds and into a money market on June 1st. In the 1.5 months since, the remaining Target Date Retirement fund has fluctuated up and down by about 0.1%. It has basically plateaued. I don't think I am losing out on potential short term gains. I like the idea that I have cash available to buy in on the day of the crash.

wil421 3mo ago
My boss has already done this several times over the past couple years because of some impeding market crash. Then he goes back and buys a week or so later.
le-mark 3mo ago
Good luck dude! This kind of move can pay off big or not, clearly. I’ve personally talked to fable about this a lot, suggest everyone does. There are a lot of failure modes. The dot-com bubble looked obvious in 1997; it popped in 2000. Anyone shorting in '97-'98 was carried out on a stretcher before being vindicated. In fact 2000-2002 fell in three brutal legs over two years, and anyone who leveraged up after the first 25% leg was destroyed by the next two.
jghn 3mo ago
what if you buy on the day of the crash only to discover that was day one of a year long crash?
- fhdkweig 3mo ago
  I feel that even if that happens, at least I wasn't fully exposed to the first drop.
- mancerayder 3mo ago
  Then he's beating those who held right before crash number 1, right?
  - jghn 3mo ago
    Depends on what he left on the table sitting on cash in the run up first
chasd00 3mo ago
> I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds which target date fund exactly? You can increase risk/reward buy choosing a target date fund far in the future or you can reduce risk/reward by choosing a target date fund closer to the present. The point of those funds is to gradually reduce your risk as you get closer to your planned retirement date. I moved my 401k into a target date fund about +10 years from my planned retirement (I'm 50). So a little bit on the risk++ side but not much.
- fhdkweig 3mo ago
  2045. When they hit their target date, they are still exposed about 50% to stocks, which is more than I want right now. https://workplace.vanguard.com/investments/product-details/fund/0306 https://workplace.vanguard.com/investments/product-details/f... You want to search for the chart at "Allocation to underlying funds (actual)"
BeetleB 3mo ago
Honest question: Do you expect the AI crash to have a bigger impact on the economy than a global pandemic that shut everything down did?
- fhdkweig 3mo ago
  I don't know, but they aren't really in the same category either. The pandemic didn't shut down everything. It didn't really shut down much, people worked from home and got deliveries instead of doing things in person. There were sectors that were hit bad, but certainly not everything. The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes. That's what got me spooked. I don't want to be heavily invested in those companies when/if something bad happens.
  - BeetleB 3mo ago
    My point is that whether there will be a crash or not is incredibly hard to predict. COVID did not come with a stock market crash, but it affected employment much more than a possible AI crash will. > The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes. The way to put faith in such indicators is not (only) by looking at prior crashes, but by forward testing them. Over the last decade, it's been common for me to hear a sentiment like yours: "Indicator X has always resulted in a serious downturn in the past, and we're in X territory now" - and no crash ensued. Over and over again. Find me an indicator that someone back tested, and then also actually predicted a real crash (with zero false positives). The cost of even a single false positive can be huge. Ask the guys who pulled out (or sold their houses) when COVID struck. Don't become the person who predicts 7 of the last 2 recessions.
    - overfeed 3mo ago
      > My point is that whether there will be a crash or not is incredibly hard to predict. COVID did not come with a stock market crash As someone who had early PUTs against the obvious industries (travel, hospitality) - what I didn't foresee was the insane amounts of government liquidity poured into the markets.
matwood 3mo ago
What percentage drop do you need to consider it a 'crash' and to buy back in? Is it a drop from when you sold or the peak? What if the peak is another 20% higher and the crash is 10%? While you're sitting in cash, you're also losing to inflation each day. I generally consider timing the market such as this to be a fools errand, but if you're going to do it you need to have a plan beforehand and follow it. A target date fund does exactly this with allocations.
robocat 3mo ago
> day of the crash It took 17 months for the 2008 crash to reach bottom. For the dotcom, the market peaked in 2000 and reached bottom in 2002. Timing the bottom is hard - plus emotionally nobody is keen to invest so you'd need to be contrarian too.

wil421 3mo ago

My boss has already done this several times over the past couple years because of some impeding market crash. Then he goes back and buys a week or so later.

le-mark 3mo ago

Good luck dude! This kind of move can pay off big or not, clearly. I’ve personally talked to fable about this a lot, suggest everyone does. There are a lot of failure modes. The dot-com bubble looked obvious in 1997; it popped in 2000. Anyone shorting in '97-'98 was carried out on a stretcher before being vindicated. In fact 2000-2002 fell in three brutal legs over two years, and anyone who leveraged up after the first 25% leg was destroyed by the next two.

jghn 3mo ago

what if you buy on the day of the crash only to discover that was day one of a year long crash?

fhdkweig 3mo ago
I feel that even if that happens, at least I wasn't fully exposed to the first drop.
mancerayder 3mo ago
Then he's beating those who held right before crash number 1, right?
- jghn 3mo ago
  Depends on what he left on the table sitting on cash in the run up first

chasd00 3mo ago

> I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds which target date fund exactly? You can increase risk/reward buy choosing a target date fund far in the future or you can reduce risk/reward by choosing a target date fund closer to the present. The point of those funds is to gradually reduce your risk as you get closer to your planned retirement date. I moved my 401k into a target date fund about +10 years from my planned retirement (I'm 50). So a little bit on the risk++ side but not much.

fhdkweig 3mo ago
2045. When they hit their target date, they are still exposed about 50% to stocks, which is more than I want right now. https://workplace.vanguard.com/investments/product-details/fund/0306 https://workplace.vanguard.com/investments/product-details/f... You want to search for the chart at "Allocation to underlying funds (actual)"

BeetleB 3mo ago

Honest question: Do you expect the AI crash to have a bigger impact on the economy than a global pandemic that shut everything down did?

fhdkweig 3mo ago
I don't know, but they aren't really in the same category either. The pandemic didn't shut down everything. It didn't really shut down much, people worked from home and got deliveries instead of doing things in person. There were sectors that were hit bad, but certainly not everything. The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes. That's what got me spooked. I don't want to be heavily invested in those companies when/if something bad happens.
- BeetleB 3mo ago
  My point is that whether there will be a crash or not is incredibly hard to predict. COVID did not come with a stock market crash, but it affected employment much more than a possible AI crash will. > The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes. The way to put faith in such indicators is not (only) by looking at prior crashes, but by forward testing them. Over the last decade, it's been common for me to hear a sentiment like yours: "Indicator X has always resulted in a serious downturn in the past, and we're in X territory now" - and no crash ensued. Over and over again. Find me an indicator that someone back tested, and then also actually predicted a real crash (with zero false positives). The cost of even a single false positive can be huge. Ask the guys who pulled out (or sold their houses) when COVID struck. Don't become the person who predicts 7 of the last 2 recessions.
  - overfeed 3mo ago
    > My point is that whether there will be a crash or not is incredibly hard to predict. COVID did not come with a stock market crash As someone who had early PUTs against the obvious industries (travel, hospitality) - what I didn't foresee was the insane amounts of government liquidity poured into the markets.

matwood 3mo ago

What percentage drop do you need to consider it a 'crash' and to buy back in? Is it a drop from when you sold or the peak? What if the peak is another 20% higher and the crash is 10%? While you're sitting in cash, you're also losing to inflation each day. I generally consider timing the market such as this to be a fools errand, but if you're going to do it you need to have a plan beforehand and follow it. A target date fund does exactly this with allocations.

robocat 3mo ago

> day of the crash It took 17 months for the 2008 crash to reach bottom. For the dotcom, the market peaked in 2000 and reached bottom in 2002. Timing the bottom is hard - plus emotionally nobody is keen to invest so you'd need to be contrarian too.