3 ms·

Replicated association, which is strong, but not proof. Initial study saw a 3.5% absolute reduction in dementia diagnoses over seven years with a very wide conf

Replicated association, which is strong, but not proof. Initial study saw a 3.5% absolute reduction in dementia diagnoses over seven years with a very wide confidence interval. In Australia the study was replicated with 1.8% absolute reduction over 7.4 yrs. Canadian replication: 2% over 5.5 yrs. Infections generally increase the risk of future dementia. Like the more colds you have throughout life.

gruez 3mo ago
>Replicated association [...] "association" undersells it a bit, because the data is better than the typical cohort study, which has issues like "what if people who got the vaccine are also richer and care about their health more?". There's quasi-randomization going on. From the more in depth article that's linked: >Research is also revealing unexpected interventions that help to keep ageing minds sharp. One of the most promising derives from an analysis by Pascal Geldsetzer of Stanford University and his team of a natural experiment in Wales. In 2013 the British region started offering people aged 70-79 free vaccinations through the public-health system. This change resembled an RCT, in that a large number of people were separated almost at random into two groups: those who had already turned 80 in the weeks before the programme started, and so were not eligible to be jabbed; and those who turned 80 in the weeks after, roughly half of whom were duly vaccinated.
alfiedotwtf 3mo ago
> like the more colds you have in life Whoa wait what? This is the first time I’ve heard of this - is this actually common knowledge?
- hereme888 3mo ago
  Not common knowledge, but should be in this day and age. For example, someone who worked in daycare and often got sick with the flu or similar, has a higher risk of dementia (statistically-speaking). When I learned it, it was in the context of the influenza and similar common viruses. It's actually more nuanced than that. If you want to read more: https://www.openevidence.com/ask/bccc3cc2-e15d-4fb0-a0c5-16f17a0d45c2 https://www.openevidence.com/ask/bccc3cc2-e15d-4fb0-a0c5-16f...
  - sarchertech 3mo ago
    As far as I know you're overstating what is known. There was a study that showed that people who had severe influenza (they were hospitalized) were 3 times more likely to develop dementia. And there are mouse models that show that frequency respiratory virus infections can increase may contribute to brain aging (in mice). >someone who worked in daycare and often got sick with the flu or similar, has a higher risk of dementia (statistically-speaking). I can't find any evidence of this being true. I can find evidence that primary school teachers have lower rates of dementia. Pediatricians also have lower rates of dementia, so I find this highly doubtful.
    - deleted 3mo ago
      [deleted]
    - hereme888 3mo ago
      I'm extrapolating some. But pediatricians have higher rates of dementia compared to their counterparts (physicians have lower dementia in general): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-019-01278-4 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-019-01278-4
      - sarchertech 3mo ago
        You’re taking a mouse study, and a study that says that people hospitalized with influenza are more likely to get dementia, and stating confidently that daycare workers are more likely to get dementia. That’s not “extrapolating some.” That’s just making stuff up. The study you cited is from Taiwan and merely states that “Physicians who were older, specialized in pediatrics and worked at local hospitals and clinics had a higher prevalence for dementia than their counterparts did.” “physicians who are older are more likely to have dementia” But beyond that, pediatricians or doctors who work in hospitals or clinics covers most doctors who aren’t work from home radiologists.
        hereme888 3mo ago
        Wrong. Physicians (which includes pediatricians), who are in general less likely to get dementia, experience its signs at an older age in general due to protective effects of their high education. Among physicians, pediatricians seemed to have higher rates. The discussion is very low-yield though, since infections are already a minor point re: dementia, and none of the evidence is conclusive.
- pocksuppet 3mo ago
  This isn't common knowledge. This is something people (non-experts) are starting to infer, because we're seeing it with Long COVID - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48877214 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48877214 - but there's no reason to think this is something special about SARS-CoV-2 - it could just as well happen with all viral infections but we weren't looking. It reminds me that we didn't look at vaccine efficacy at the individual level until SARS-CoV-2. People were getting upset that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines only have a moderate chance to stop you getting the virus, and usually lessen its impact if you do get it, and calling this an ineffective vaccine. But the truth is, we have no idea whether every previous vaccine was also like that, because we only ever looked at the population level: when lots of people get the vaccine, the virus dies out.
  - chasil 3mo ago
    From a legal perspective, if the injection does not provide 100% immunity (when used as directed), then it cannot be called a vaccine, instead it is a therapeutic treatment. Because courts of law have recognized covid mRNA injections as therapeutic treatments, they cannot be mandated.
    - duk3luk3 3mo ago
      That sounds like nonsense. Most vaccines do not provide 100% immunity.
      - chasil 3mo ago
        Not to the union, it's not. 'The plaintiffs alleged that the vaccines do not prevent someone from becoming infected with COVID-19 and characterized it as a treatment rather than a “traditional vaccine.”' https://calmatters.org/education/2024/06/covid-vaccine-mandate-schools/ https://calmatters.org/education/2024/06/covid-vaccine-manda...
        pineapplepizza6 3mo ago
        [dead]
hobo123 3mo ago
I wonder if infections do not cause more dementia, but are simply correlated with more. A weaker immune system may trigger many many things. And similar questions about obesity "causing" many diseases, sunburns causing skin cancer (although that sounds somewhat plausible) etc.
- tptacek 3mo ago
  There isn't a causal mechanistic link between shingles and Alzheimers. We don't know why the Shingrix vaccine reduces incidence of Alzheimers. (You should very much want to avoid any chance of getting shingles, though; it's a nightmare.)
  - DANmode 3mo ago
    Probably other, possibly even unknown viruses that the vaccine has efficacy for.
- hereme888 3mo ago
  The shingles virus hides in the nervous system and can come back out when immune control weakens. It causes inflammation and nerve injury, sometimes severe enough to leave people with chronic pain. From there, it’s reasonable to theorize that it could also affect the brain and even its glymphatic system over time.
SoftTalker 3mo ago
I'm one of those people (knock on wood) who never gets sick. I never get colds or seasonal flu, and I don't get routine flu vaccines. Never got COVID either, even when several people in the house had it (I did get the J&J vaccine for that, however). I did have chicken pox as a kid, but have not had shingles nor the vaccine (yet). A co-worker was laid up for a week after his shingles vaccine, but that's obviously just one data point. But, I've been considering getting the Shingrix series even if I have to pay for it. I turn 60 this year. Shingles doesn't sound fun.
- laluser 3mo ago
  Just curious, do you have children? Do you socialize pretty freely during all seasons indoors?
- chasil 3mo ago
  Your thymus shuts down in your 80s, and you will make no more new T cells. I also understand that a third of the elderly will have shingles by their 80s if unvaccinated.

gruez 3mo ago

>Replicated association [...] "association" undersells it a bit, because the data is better than the typical cohort study, which has issues like "what if people who got the vaccine are also richer and care about their health more?". There's quasi-randomization going on. From the more in depth article that's linked: >Research is also revealing unexpected interventions that help to keep ageing minds sharp. One of the most promising derives from an analysis by Pascal Geldsetzer of Stanford University and his team of a natural experiment in Wales. In 2013 the British region started offering people aged 70-79 free vaccinations through the public-health system. This change resembled an RCT, in that a large number of people were separated almost at random into two groups: those who had already turned 80 in the weeks before the programme started, and so were not eligible to be jabbed; and those who turned 80 in the weeks after, roughly half of whom were duly vaccinated.

alfiedotwtf 3mo ago

> like the more colds you have in life Whoa wait what? This is the first time I’ve heard of this - is this actually common knowledge?

hereme888 3mo ago
Not common knowledge, but should be in this day and age. For example, someone who worked in daycare and often got sick with the flu or similar, has a higher risk of dementia (statistically-speaking). When I learned it, it was in the context of the influenza and similar common viruses. It's actually more nuanced than that. If you want to read more: https://www.openevidence.com/ask/bccc3cc2-e15d-4fb0-a0c5-16f17a0d45c2 https://www.openevidence.com/ask/bccc3cc2-e15d-4fb0-a0c5-16f...
- sarchertech 3mo ago
  As far as I know you're overstating what is known. There was a study that showed that people who had severe influenza (they were hospitalized) were 3 times more likely to develop dementia. And there are mouse models that show that frequency respiratory virus infections can increase may contribute to brain aging (in mice). >someone who worked in daycare and often got sick with the flu or similar, has a higher risk of dementia (statistically-speaking). I can't find any evidence of this being true. I can find evidence that primary school teachers have lower rates of dementia. Pediatricians also have lower rates of dementia, so I find this highly doubtful.
  - deleted 3mo ago
    [deleted]
  - hereme888 3mo ago
    I'm extrapolating some. But pediatricians have higher rates of dementia compared to their counterparts (physicians have lower dementia in general): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-019-01278-4 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-019-01278-4
    - sarchertech 3mo ago
      You’re taking a mouse study, and a study that says that people hospitalized with influenza are more likely to get dementia, and stating confidently that daycare workers are more likely to get dementia. That’s not “extrapolating some.” That’s just making stuff up. The study you cited is from Taiwan and merely states that “Physicians who were older, specialized in pediatrics and worked at local hospitals and clinics had a higher prevalence for dementia than their counterparts did.” “physicians who are older are more likely to have dementia” But beyond that, pediatricians or doctors who work in hospitals or clinics covers most doctors who aren’t work from home radiologists.
      - hereme888 3mo ago
        Wrong. Physicians (which includes pediatricians), who are in general less likely to get dementia, experience its signs at an older age in general due to protective effects of their high education. Among physicians, pediatricians seemed to have higher rates. The discussion is very low-yield though, since infections are already a minor point re: dementia, and none of the evidence is conclusive.
pocksuppet 3mo ago
This isn't common knowledge. This is something people (non-experts) are starting to infer, because we're seeing it with Long COVID - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48877214 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48877214 - but there's no reason to think this is something special about SARS-CoV-2 - it could just as well happen with all viral infections but we weren't looking. It reminds me that we didn't look at vaccine efficacy at the individual level until SARS-CoV-2. People were getting upset that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines only have a moderate chance to stop you getting the virus, and usually lessen its impact if you do get it, and calling this an ineffective vaccine. But the truth is, we have no idea whether every previous vaccine was also like that, because we only ever looked at the population level: when lots of people get the vaccine, the virus dies out.
- chasil 3mo ago
  From a legal perspective, if the injection does not provide 100% immunity (when used as directed), then it cannot be called a vaccine, instead it is a therapeutic treatment. Because courts of law have recognized covid mRNA injections as therapeutic treatments, they cannot be mandated.
  - duk3luk3 3mo ago
    That sounds like nonsense. Most vaccines do not provide 100% immunity.
    - chasil 3mo ago
      Not to the union, it's not. 'The plaintiffs alleged that the vaccines do not prevent someone from becoming infected with COVID-19 and characterized it as a treatment rather than a “traditional vaccine.”' https://calmatters.org/education/2024/06/covid-vaccine-mandate-schools/ https://calmatters.org/education/2024/06/covid-vaccine-manda...
      - pineapplepizza6 3mo ago
        [dead]

hobo123 3mo ago

I wonder if infections do not cause more dementia, but are simply correlated with more. A weaker immune system may trigger many many things. And similar questions about obesity "causing" many diseases, sunburns causing skin cancer (although that sounds somewhat plausible) etc.

tptacek 3mo ago
There isn't a causal mechanistic link between shingles and Alzheimers. We don't know why the Shingrix vaccine reduces incidence of Alzheimers. (You should very much want to avoid any chance of getting shingles, though; it's a nightmare.)
- DANmode 3mo ago
  Probably other, possibly even unknown viruses that the vaccine has efficacy for.
hereme888 3mo ago
The shingles virus hides in the nervous system and can come back out when immune control weakens. It causes inflammation and nerve injury, sometimes severe enough to leave people with chronic pain. From there, it’s reasonable to theorize that it could also affect the brain and even its glymphatic system over time.

SoftTalker 3mo ago

I'm one of those people (knock on wood) who never gets sick. I never get colds or seasonal flu, and I don't get routine flu vaccines. Never got COVID either, even when several people in the house had it (I did get the J&J vaccine for that, however). I did have chicken pox as a kid, but have not had shingles nor the vaccine (yet). A co-worker was laid up for a week after his shingles vaccine, but that's obviously just one data point. But, I've been considering getting the Shingrix series even if I have to pay for it. I turn 60 this year. Shingles doesn't sound fun.

laluser 3mo ago
Just curious, do you have children? Do you socialize pretty freely during all seasons indoors?
chasil 3mo ago
Your thymus shuts down in your 80s, and you will make no more new T cells. I also understand that a third of the elderly will have shingles by their 80s if unvaccinated.