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Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list. So they're glad to help Ukraine. Better than fighting the Russians on home territory. Taiwan and Japa

by Animats 3mo ago

Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list. So they're glad to help Ukraine. Better than fighting the Russians on home territory. Taiwan and Japan, though, aren't in Russia's line of fire. The cooperation with Ukraine is because Ukraine figured out how to stop Russia. Taiwan has a real threat, and if they can build defenses that mean China faces a years-long war, there probably won't be one.

brabel 3mo ago
Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya which is not much more than Russia currently occupies. You really think they will eventually march over Ukraine on to Warsaw?? That’s as likely as the exiled Chinese government in Taiwan taking over China.
- XorNot 3mo ago
  Ukraine is keeping Russia where it is at a tremendous expenditure of people and treasure. Their success in the conflict is not guaranteed.
  - deleted 3mo ago
    [deleted]
  - brabel 3mo ago
    Their success is already impossible: you cannot lose half of your population and suffer millions of casualties and still consider that a success in the end, even if Ukraine was to retake most of the territory it has lost, which seems less and less likely as the years pass. Wars of this kind never have winners. Russia also lost too many soldiers to celebrate anything.
    - liamwire 3mo ago
      I couldn't disagree more. In a fight for existential survival, repelling an invader at any cost constitutes a win. It may almost be pyrrhic in the end, but deterrence is invaluable. Not to lose sight of the very real cost, down to every man and family destroyed. Many may even argue that life under subjugation is still at least life. But many more have walked the walk into the fire, in defiance of that notion. I see no way of arguing the opinions of the living outweigh those of the dead when it comes to opinions on what's worth fighting for. I would add that this isn't advocating for blindly and endlessly throwing meat into the meat grinder. But to the extent that a country tells you, not from the top down but from the men on the very frontlines of war, that they're willing to die, to win... I'd say believe them when they say they understand the costs, and yet consider it a win not in spite of those costs, but in the face of them, defiantly.
      - brabel 3mo ago
        There is a lot of resistance from the Ukrainians to going to the frontlines as we can see in the endless videos of people fighting the government “recruiters” who come to forcibly take them and the large stream of people fleeing the country. It’s hard to tell if the will to continue fight comes from the people or the government, it’s not nearly as clear as you imply. In my view, it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. From both sides of course. But it seems both sides still consider the continuing fight and death toll is worthwhile and preferable to the compromises they would need to make to end the craziness. We will look back at this time as a huge failure of Europe and the US to manage to first prevent Russia aggression, and then even worse , prolonging the conflict for several years by simply failing to provide what was needed to defeat Russia while providing just enough for the Russians to advance only very slowly and at a high cost - the worst possible outcome since Ukraine still loses a huge amount of territory and more importantly, people, while Russia loses a much smaller proportion of its population while achieving many of its goals and proving to the West that it can challenge its political position near its borders even if war is the only way to do so.
        esseph 3mo ago
        > it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. This is a known Russian talking point. Begone with thee. You act like this war is just happening in Ukraine. Ask UK, France, Germany, US, Poland, etc how that is going inside those countries. Ask North Korea about their troops.
- nostrademons 3mo ago
  When the war started, it certainly looked like it. Russian soldiers were in Kyiv at one point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) It was the failure of Russian logistics and the triumph of Ukrainian logistics that beat them back.
  - ericmay 3mo ago
    Credit certainly that Russian logistics failed, but was it Ukrainian logistics that beat them back or was it Ukrainian logistics and heroism alongside American and British support, intelligence, and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back?
    - yostrovs 3mo ago
      There were no critical weapons supplied to Ukraine until after the Russians retreated from Kiyv.
      - esseph 3mo ago
        This is easily proven false. See my above comment about both the UK SOF operations and the US flights of weapons. The info is well documented and sourced.
    - troupo 3mo ago
      > and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back? There were no 24/7 airlifts of criticql weapons and equipment at any point in this war. Ukraine was expected to fall quickly, and any help it needed started arriving very reluctantly, very slowly, in small batches stretched over months and years of deliveries much much later.
      - ericmay 3mo ago
        That’s wrong. The US and UK airlifted anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles among other things to Ukraine while telling the world Russia was about to invade (which Europeans refused to believe). You may be confusing European support and their lack of it (remember the famous time Germany just sent 45,000 old helmets?) with how the United States and United Kingdom helped. For example this was published in April 2022. Some of this equipment had already been delivered to Ukraine via airlift before the war even started: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fact-sheet-us-security-assistance-to-ukraine/ https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fa...
- esseph 3mo ago
  There have been rumblings of a Russian attack on Poland for awhile. https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-poland https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provoca... Polish news: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ --- The head of Poland's Foreign Ministry noted that he cannot comment on intelligence data but stressed that Russia has long been waging a hybrid war against Poland and France. He said this involves cyberattacks on state systems, attempts to gather information on critical infrastructure using shadow fleet vessels, arson, sabotage on railways and drone attacks. Sikorski also recalled that before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia allegedly prepared false flag provocations to create a pretext for starting the war. At the time, American intelligence warnings helped thwart those plans. "Today you must believe us – not just me, but other countries too – that we have credible information that the Russians are planning something again. The purpose of these warnings is to discourage them from carrying out these provocations," he said. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, for his part, confirmed that Paris is also recording increased Russian hybrid activity.
  - brabel 3mo ago
    Poland is delivering 90% of NATO’s support to Ukraine. France is one of the staunchest enemies of Russia. In this situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy? I am surprised Russia hasn’t bombed transport depots in Poland that are known to be used for weapons delivery to Ukraine yet, but that seems very likely to happen in the next few months. However that is not the same as Russia invading Poland! Those reports are talking about attacks, no one in their right mind is expecting an invasion, which is what my comment was referring to.
    - troupo 3mo ago
      > situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy Oh no, the poor innocent Russia that is currently in year 5 of its totally innocent blameless war it's waging. "Hitler did nothing wrong" vibes. All Russia has to do to stop its soldiers from dying and its economy from being destroyed is to get the fuck out of Ukraine.
caycep 3mo ago
I think they already have that, they want to make sure it stays that way alternatively, there's a Dennis Ross piece out pointing out that China's procurement patterns over the years suggests they are not seriously thinking of invading Taiwan, they just want everyone to think that way...
- mschuster91 3mo ago
  > they just want everyone to think that way That's the thing with religious or ideologically driven dictators. They're nutjobs, not beholden to reality in their decisionmaking but to whatever their ideology prescribes - and thus are prone to making decisions that seem to (or end up being) utterly stupid / irrational. With Yugoslavia, it was Tito's idea to force all the various countries into one common ethnicity. With Russia, it is Putin's dream of restoring "Greater Russia". With China, it's the dream of re-unification with Taiwan on one side, and reversing what is seen as a land grab by back-then Czarist Russia in Outer Manchuria. With Trump it is the desperate desire to be beloved (and the desire of his Project 2025 handlers to turn the US into an ethno-christo-nationalist state). With Ben Gvir and Smotrich in Israel, it is the desire to wipe out anything Palestinian. And the result of these madmen was and is an untold amount of needless suffering. There is no reason at all to not believe what China is openly saying [1] and to prepare accordingly. Better be prepared than be sorry. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/31/xi-jinping-vows-reunification-china-taiwan-new-years-eve-speech https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/31/xi-jinping-vow...
  - troupo 3mo ago
    Or you completely ignore what China is openly saying: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning
  - idiotsecant 3mo ago
    It's wildly naive to think that dictators are 'nutjobs'. They are, without exception, shrewd political operators. You don't get to be dictator and stay dictator without a certain skill set, and part of that is having a good sense of which actions get you a bigger bank account and which ones end with your head on a stick. They might be wrong like any human, but they aren't cartoon villains.
D_Alex 3mo ago
>Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list. "Putin's list" is a dishonest meme, just like the "rules-based international order" that the Western nations supposedly embrace. There is no such list, and there are no such rules. There is only deceitful propaganda used to justify geopolitical ambitions. Don't spread it.
ExoticPearTree 3mo ago
> Taiwan has a real threat, and if they can build defenses that mean China faces a years-long war, there probably won't be one. China could just bomb Taiwan into submission if it chooses to. I don't think it is a problem for China to build 20-30k ballistic missile and launch them at Taiwan. Or send a million drones over there just to be sure nothing survives them. Taiwan is, unfortunately, in a very precarious situation should China decide enough is enough and reunification must happen no matter what.
- the_gastropod 3mo ago
  1. “Reunification” is straight Chinese propaganda. Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Japan has a stronger claim for “reunification” than the PRC does (and that’d also be very dumb) 2. Taiwan and Taiwanese allies also have agency. China doesn’t just get to fire 20-30k ballistic missiles at Taiwan with no consequences. The consequences would maybe be asymmetrical, but they’d no doubt be very painful for China.
  - ExoticPearTree 3mo ago
    1. That I see it as payback for the KMT losing the civil war. 2. Yeah, dunno about that, who will do what exactly to China? I also think that, since you mentioned it, Japan would intervene, China will pretty much use it as an excuse for retribution on what the Japanese did to the Chinese during WW2.
  - telxosis 3mo ago
    The idea is completely absurd to me. China is constrained on this by near certain mutually assured economic destruction. Even the food supply in China would basically be destroyed unless you believe that the population is going to just go back to a diet of largely rice with meat being a luxury. 20-30k ballistic missiles at Taiwan would cause a global depression that dwarfs the great depression. There would be almost no way the CCP survive this. That is why this subject is mostly people talking nonsense. Reunification has to happen politically, persuasively, over time and without firing a shot.
- 0x457 3mo ago

by Animats 3mo ago

brabel 3mo ago

Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya which is not much more than Russia currently occupies. You really think they will eventually march over Ukraine on to Warsaw?? That’s as likely as the exiled Chinese government in Taiwan taking over China.

XorNot 3mo ago
Ukraine is keeping Russia where it is at a tremendous expenditure of people and treasure. Their success in the conflict is not guaranteed.
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
- brabel 3mo ago
  Their success is already impossible: you cannot lose half of your population and suffer millions of casualties and still consider that a success in the end, even if Ukraine was to retake most of the territory it has lost, which seems less and less likely as the years pass. Wars of this kind never have winners. Russia also lost too many soldiers to celebrate anything.
  - liamwire 3mo ago
    I couldn't disagree more. In a fight for existential survival, repelling an invader at any cost constitutes a win. It may almost be pyrrhic in the end, but deterrence is invaluable. Not to lose sight of the very real cost, down to every man and family destroyed. Many may even argue that life under subjugation is still at least life. But many more have walked the walk into the fire, in defiance of that notion. I see no way of arguing the opinions of the living outweigh those of the dead when it comes to opinions on what's worth fighting for. I would add that this isn't advocating for blindly and endlessly throwing meat into the meat grinder. But to the extent that a country tells you, not from the top down but from the men on the very frontlines of war, that they're willing to die, to win... I'd say believe them when they say they understand the costs, and yet consider it a win not in spite of those costs, but in the face of them, defiantly.
    - brabel 3mo ago
      There is a lot of resistance from the Ukrainians to going to the frontlines as we can see in the endless videos of people fighting the government “recruiters” who come to forcibly take them and the large stream of people fleeing the country. It’s hard to tell if the will to continue fight comes from the people or the government, it’s not nearly as clear as you imply. In my view, it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. From both sides of course. But it seems both sides still consider the continuing fight and death toll is worthwhile and preferable to the compromises they would need to make to end the craziness. We will look back at this time as a huge failure of Europe and the US to manage to first prevent Russia aggression, and then even worse , prolonging the conflict for several years by simply failing to provide what was needed to defeat Russia while providing just enough for the Russians to advance only very slowly and at a high cost - the worst possible outcome since Ukraine still loses a huge amount of territory and more importantly, people, while Russia loses a much smaller proportion of its population while achieving many of its goals and proving to the West that it can challenge its political position near its borders even if war is the only way to do so.
      - esseph 3mo ago
        > it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. This is a known Russian talking point. Begone with thee. You act like this war is just happening in Ukraine. Ask UK, France, Germany, US, Poland, etc how that is going inside those countries. Ask North Korea about their troops.
nostrademons 3mo ago
When the war started, it certainly looked like it. Russian soldiers were in Kyiv at one point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) It was the failure of Russian logistics and the triumph of Ukrainian logistics that beat them back.
- ericmay 3mo ago
  Credit certainly that Russian logistics failed, but was it Ukrainian logistics that beat them back or was it Ukrainian logistics and heroism alongside American and British support, intelligence, and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back?
  - yostrovs 3mo ago
    There were no critical weapons supplied to Ukraine until after the Russians retreated from Kiyv.
    - esseph 3mo ago
      This is easily proven false. See my above comment about both the UK SOF operations and the US flights of weapons. The info is well documented and sourced.
  - troupo 3mo ago
    > and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back? There were no 24/7 airlifts of criticql weapons and equipment at any point in this war. Ukraine was expected to fall quickly, and any help it needed started arriving very reluctantly, very slowly, in small batches stretched over months and years of deliveries much much later.
    - ericmay 3mo ago
      That’s wrong. The US and UK airlifted anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles among other things to Ukraine while telling the world Russia was about to invade (which Europeans refused to believe). You may be confusing European support and their lack of it (remember the famous time Germany just sent 45,000 old helmets?) with how the United States and United Kingdom helped. For example this was published in April 2022. Some of this equipment had already been delivered to Ukraine via airlift before the war even started: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fact-sheet-us-security-assistance-to-ukraine/ https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fa...
esseph 3mo ago
There have been rumblings of a Russian attack on Poland for awhile. https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-poland https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provoca... Polish news: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ --- The head of Poland's Foreign Ministry noted that he cannot comment on intelligence data but stressed that Russia has long been waging a hybrid war against Poland and France. He said this involves cyberattacks on state systems, attempts to gather information on critical infrastructure using shadow fleet vessels, arson, sabotage on railways and drone attacks. Sikorski also recalled that before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia allegedly prepared false flag provocations to create a pretext for starting the war. At the time, American intelligence warnings helped thwart those plans. "Today you must believe us – not just me, but other countries too – that we have credible information that the Russians are planning something again. The purpose of these warnings is to discourage them from carrying out these provocations," he said. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, for his part, confirmed that Paris is also recording increased Russian hybrid activity.
- brabel 3mo ago
  Poland is delivering 90% of NATO’s support to Ukraine. France is one of the staunchest enemies of Russia. In this situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy? I am surprised Russia hasn’t bombed transport depots in Poland that are known to be used for weapons delivery to Ukraine yet, but that seems very likely to happen in the next few months. However that is not the same as Russia invading Poland! Those reports are talking about attacks, no one in their right mind is expecting an invasion, which is what my comment was referring to.
  - troupo 3mo ago
    > situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy Oh no, the poor innocent Russia that is currently in year 5 of its totally innocent blameless war it's waging. "Hitler did nothing wrong" vibes. All Russia has to do to stop its soldiers from dying and its economy from being destroyed is to get the fuck out of Ukraine.

caycep 3mo ago

I think they already have that, they want to make sure it stays that way alternatively, there's a Dennis Ross piece out pointing out that China's procurement patterns over the years suggests they are not seriously thinking of invading Taiwan, they just want everyone to think that way...

mschuster91 3mo ago
> they just want everyone to think that way That's the thing with religious or ideologically driven dictators. They're nutjobs, not beholden to reality in their decisionmaking but to whatever their ideology prescribes - and thus are prone to making decisions that seem to (or end up being) utterly stupid / irrational. With Yugoslavia, it was Tito's idea to force all the various countries into one common ethnicity. With Russia, it is Putin's dream of restoring "Greater Russia". With China, it's the dream of re-unification with Taiwan on one side, and reversing what is seen as a land grab by back-then Czarist Russia in Outer Manchuria. With Trump it is the desperate desire to be beloved (and the desire of his Project 2025 handlers to turn the US into an ethno-christo-nationalist state). With Ben Gvir and Smotrich in Israel, it is the desire to wipe out anything Palestinian. And the result of these madmen was and is an untold amount of needless suffering. There is no reason at all to not believe what China is openly saying [1] and to prepare accordingly. Better be prepared than be sorry. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/31/xi-jinping-vows-reunification-china-taiwan-new-years-eve-speech https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/31/xi-jinping-vow...
- troupo 3mo ago
  Or you completely ignore what China is openly saying: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning
- idiotsecant 3mo ago
  It's wildly naive to think that dictators are 'nutjobs'. They are, without exception, shrewd political operators. You don't get to be dictator and stay dictator without a certain skill set, and part of that is having a good sense of which actions get you a bigger bank account and which ones end with your head on a stick. They might be wrong like any human, but they aren't cartoon villains.

D_Alex 3mo ago

>Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list. "Putin's list" is a dishonest meme, just like the "rules-based international order" that the Western nations supposedly embrace. There is no such list, and there are no such rules. There is only deceitful propaganda used to justify geopolitical ambitions. Don't spread it.

ExoticPearTree 3mo ago

> Taiwan has a real threat, and if they can build defenses that mean China faces a years-long war, there probably won't be one. China could just bomb Taiwan into submission if it chooses to. I don't think it is a problem for China to build 20-30k ballistic missile and launch them at Taiwan. Or send a million drones over there just to be sure nothing survives them. Taiwan is, unfortunately, in a very precarious situation should China decide enough is enough and reunification must happen no matter what.

the_gastropod 3mo ago
1. “Reunification” is straight Chinese propaganda. Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Japan has a stronger claim for “reunification” than the PRC does (and that’d also be very dumb) 2. Taiwan and Taiwanese allies also have agency. China doesn’t just get to fire 20-30k ballistic missiles at Taiwan with no consequences. The consequences would maybe be asymmetrical, but they’d no doubt be very painful for China.
- ExoticPearTree 3mo ago
  1. That I see it as payback for the KMT losing the civil war. 2. Yeah, dunno about that, who will do what exactly to China? I also think that, since you mentioned it, Japan would intervene, China will pretty much use it as an excuse for retribution on what the Japanese did to the Chinese during WW2.
- telxosis 3mo ago
  The idea is completely absurd to me. China is constrained on this by near certain mutually assured economic destruction. Even the food supply in China would basically be destroyed unless you believe that the population is going to just go back to a diet of largely rice with meat being a luxury. 20-30k ballistic missiles at Taiwan would cause a global depression that dwarfs the great depression. There would be almost no way the CCP survive this. That is why this subject is mostly people talking nonsense. Reunification has to happen politically, persuasively, over time and without firing a shot.
0x457 3mo ago