4 ms·

Europe became powerful before it was unified, and ever since the creation of the EU it's been becoming less and less important on the world stage.

ben_w 3mo ago
We first became powerful because we did the industrial revolution before anyone else, and used more of that capacity to fight the world (and win) than to fight each other. When we fought each other, after the industrial revolution, that was the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars. > and ever since the creation of the EU it's been becoming less and less important on the world stage. I wouldn't say it was "ever since the creation of the EU", but rather "roughly between WW1 and decolonisation". Post-Cold-War the EU has taken over from the former global importance of the member states, e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_effect That said, east and South Asia are regaining their multi-millennia history of being the world's dominant power by virtue of having roughly half the total world population. And to agree up-thread, there's plenty going that can rapidly turn the EU's economy into a disaster if not handled expertly.
- klipt 3mo ago
  > the world's dominant power by virtue of having roughly half the total world population If human+ level AI takes off one would expect to see a great decoupling of power from population.
  - ben_w 3mo ago
    Sure, but until then, proportional to each of [population, education/educated workers, capital, instantaneous industrial base, energy supply]. Asia's diverse, but I'd say they seem to be doing pretty well with rapid improvements across all fronts. In comparison, the US's weaker (not weak-weak, just weaker) areas currently seem to be educated workers, instantaneous industrial base, and energy supply (relative to rapidly growing demand from compute); while the EU's weaker areas currently seem to be capital and energy supply (from supply shock, as it doesn't have the compute). The US and EU both have coming demographic issues, but not as soon as the other stuff becomes more important. People talk about China having demographic issues too, but they're a dictatorship, they can make it shift if they care to. (And Russia's losing a lot of people, more educated people, capital markets, industrial base, and energy supply).
    - myrmidon 3mo ago
      > People talk about China having demographic issues too, but they're a dictatorship, they can make it shift if they care to. China has a significantly bigger problem with demographics than the EU does, it is just on a slightly longer fuse, compare: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?facet=entity&country=CHN~OWID_EUR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?f... The big drop in Chinese fertility is going to be very disruptive in the near future, because it is much less gradual than European trends and the retiree/workers ratio is going to spike much harder because of that. Having full authoritarian control is not gonna change anything now because it is already much too late (action would have been required like 35 years ago). Best they can do is get through it somewhat smoothly. edit: This is an even better visualization (projected working age population fraction) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-young-working-elderly-with-projections?country=~CHN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-young-working-...
  - deleted 3mo ago
    [deleted]
- mwigdahl 3mo ago
  There were a lot of European wars between the Napoleonic Wars and the First World War. I agree with your point overall but there was a lot of fighting each other during that timeframe.
abirch 3mo ago
Yes, Europe was powerful when they had colonies. Currently, Europe can stand up against tech. Apple could easily prohibit iPhones from going into France but I doubt it cutting off the entire EU.
- irishcoffee 3mo ago
  Stand up against tech? Cut off your nose to spite your face? Apple sure won’t care. Nor is Apple all encompassing of “tech”
  - ben_w 3mo ago
    > Apple sure won’t care Europe collectively is about 26.7% of their 2025 revenue, according to SEC filings, so I bet they'd care. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/0000320193250...
    - oblio 3mo ago
      It's worse than that. If Apple were banned, someone else would fill their spot.
      - irishcoffee 3mo ago
        Oh no, Europe would stand on their own two feet!?
        ben_w 3mo ago
        Great for us here in Europe, but an even bigger reason for Apple to be upset about it.
rullopat 3mo ago
The motivation that the USA entered WWII was not because they were generous, but because the 3rd Reich was effectively becoming a big European nation, so they had to do something to avoid it. A unified Europe is a thread to the USA and Russia and maybe somebody else too.
- mr_toad 3mo ago
  > 3rd Reich was effectively becoming a big European nation Even then the US might not have done much if the Nazis hadn’t kept attacking US shipping.
pavlov 3mo ago
So you’re saying that the war-ravaged Europe of 1946 that was split by the Iron Curtain and needed Marshall Aid was more powerful and important than today’s EU? Insane take. But somehow people will go to any lengths to disparage the EU.
- ywvcbk 3mo ago
  Globally in relative terms? Kind of. Sure the gap to the US was huge but it still controlled pretty much entire Africa and much of Asia (with China and Japan obviously not doing great..)

ben_w 3mo ago

We first became powerful because we did the industrial revolution before anyone else, and used more of that capacity to fight the world (and win) than to fight each other. When we fought each other, after the industrial revolution, that was the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars. > and ever since the creation of the EU it's been becoming less and less important on the world stage. I wouldn't say it was "ever since the creation of the EU", but rather "roughly between WW1 and decolonisation". Post-Cold-War the EU has taken over from the former global importance of the member states, e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_effect That said, east and South Asia are regaining their multi-millennia history of being the world's dominant power by virtue of having roughly half the total world population. And to agree up-thread, there's plenty going that can rapidly turn the EU's economy into a disaster if not handled expertly.

klipt 3mo ago
> the world's dominant power by virtue of having roughly half the total world population If human+ level AI takes off one would expect to see a great decoupling of power from population.
- ben_w 3mo ago
  Sure, but until then, proportional to each of [population, education/educated workers, capital, instantaneous industrial base, energy supply]. Asia's diverse, but I'd say they seem to be doing pretty well with rapid improvements across all fronts. In comparison, the US's weaker (not weak-weak, just weaker) areas currently seem to be educated workers, instantaneous industrial base, and energy supply (relative to rapidly growing demand from compute); while the EU's weaker areas currently seem to be capital and energy supply (from supply shock, as it doesn't have the compute). The US and EU both have coming demographic issues, but not as soon as the other stuff becomes more important. People talk about China having demographic issues too, but they're a dictatorship, they can make it shift if they care to. (And Russia's losing a lot of people, more educated people, capital markets, industrial base, and energy supply).
  - myrmidon 3mo ago
    > People talk about China having demographic issues too, but they're a dictatorship, they can make it shift if they care to. China has a significantly bigger problem with demographics than the EU does, it is just on a slightly longer fuse, compare: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?facet=entity&country=CHN~OWID_EUR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-born-per-woman?f... The big drop in Chinese fertility is going to be very disruptive in the near future, because it is much less gradual than European trends and the retiree/workers ratio is going to spike much harder because of that. Having full authoritarian control is not gonna change anything now because it is already much too late (action would have been required like 35 years ago). Best they can do is get through it somewhat smoothly. edit: This is an even better visualization (projected working age population fraction) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-young-working-elderly-with-projections?country=~CHN https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-young-working-...
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
mwigdahl 3mo ago
There were a lot of European wars between the Napoleonic Wars and the First World War. I agree with your point overall but there was a lot of fighting each other during that timeframe.

abirch 3mo ago

Yes, Europe was powerful when they had colonies. Currently, Europe can stand up against tech. Apple could easily prohibit iPhones from going into France but I doubt it cutting off the entire EU.

irishcoffee 3mo ago
Stand up against tech? Cut off your nose to spite your face? Apple sure won’t care. Nor is Apple all encompassing of “tech”
- ben_w 3mo ago
  > Apple sure won’t care Europe collectively is about 26.7% of their 2025 revenue, according to SEC filings, so I bet they'd care. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/0000320193250...
  - oblio 3mo ago
    It's worse than that. If Apple were banned, someone else would fill their spot.
    - irishcoffee 3mo ago
      Oh no, Europe would stand on their own two feet!?
      - ben_w 3mo ago
        Great for us here in Europe, but an even bigger reason for Apple to be upset about it.

rullopat 3mo ago

The motivation that the USA entered WWII was not because they were generous, but because the 3rd Reich was effectively becoming a big European nation, so they had to do something to avoid it. A unified Europe is a thread to the USA and Russia and maybe somebody else too.

mr_toad 3mo ago
> 3rd Reich was effectively becoming a big European nation Even then the US might not have done much if the Nazis hadn’t kept attacking US shipping.

pavlov 3mo ago

So you’re saying that the war-ravaged Europe of 1946 that was split by the Iron Curtain and needed Marshall Aid was more powerful and important than today’s EU? Insane take. But somehow people will go to any lengths to disparage the EU.

ywvcbk 3mo ago
Globally in relative terms? Kind of. Sure the gap to the US was huge but it still controlled pretty much entire Africa and much of Asia (with China and Japan obviously not doing great..)