5 ms·

I find this study a bit weird because it doesn't really establish a baseline. If you look at "top 100" blogs in year n, I imagine that many of them will be dead

I find this study a bit weird because it doesn't really establish a baseline. If you look at "top 100" blogs in year n, I imagine that many of them will be dead in year n + 5 simply because people move on. So are we looking at the evidence of blogging going extinct, or just at the natural churn? Also note that this specifically focuses on blogs designed to make money and dealing with general-interest stuff like fashion or travel. A lot of this has moved onto Instagram and TikTok as a byproduct of people using phones as their primary "content consumption" devices. But I think the internet in general is moving away from bespoke, homebrew content. This is very visible even on HN, where the daily line-up contains corporate and university press releases + newspaper articles about as often as it contains personal blogs.

pessimizer 3mo ago
> If you look at "top 100" blogs in year n, I imagine that many of them will be dead in year n + 5 simply because people move on. This is a far more dubious hypothetical. I imagine that the top 100 of anything (that a lot of people do) that brings in income or fame will still be there in 5 years. They're the most successful, most profitable of the bunch. How many of the top 100 companies in terms of revenue do you imagine will disappear in 5 years? I'd guess around 0.0%. "People move on" is a meaningless statement. Why were there so many colon cancer deaths over the past 5 years? Well, people move on. Why do people move on? > Also note that this specifically focuses on blogs designed to make money i.e. blogging, which once brought in money, doesn't seem to as much anymore. Why?
- pinkmuffinere 3mo ago
  > I imagine that the top 100 of anything (that a lot of people do) that brings in income or fame will still be there in 5 years. This sort of blanket assumption is exactly what the parent is arguing against. The mortality rate of top-n things is relatively easy to measure, and should be baselined first. Then we can compare recent performance vs historical performance, and actually say if something has changed. There's no need to start with the assumption "not much changes over 5 years" -- it can be measured instead.
- ijk 3mo ago
  If we use the S&P 500 as a proxy for the top 500 companies, I would guess that a lot more than 0% will be gone by the end of 5 years. It's hard to find non-paywalled sources for business analysis, but from what I can find it'd be about 20%.
  - socalgal2 3mo ago
    4.4% turn over per year, 22% in 5 years apparenty https://www.exchangecapital.com/blog/why-the-sp-500-isnt-what-you-think-it-is#:~:text=Change%20Is%20Constant https://www.exchangecapital.com/blog/why-the-sp-500-isnt-wha... and accelerating apparently https://blog.irvingwb.com/blog/2020/01/the-pace-of-creative-destruction-is-accelerating.html https://blog.irvingwb.com/blog/2020/01/the-pace-of-creative-...
alephnerd 3mo ago
> Also note that this specifically focuses on blogs designed to make money and dealing with general-interest stuff like fashion or travel. A lot of this has moved onto Instagram and TikTok as a byproduct of people using phones as their primary "content consumption" devices This needs to be repeated ad nauseum on HN. For most people (especially those not working in jobs which require heavy amounts of writing, analysis, and reading), text is NOT the default method with which they interact and communicate information. TikTok, IG reels, YouTube shorts, longer form YouTube content, podcasts, television, etc all feel "easier" and more "natural" for the vast majority of people.
- bobthepanda 3mo ago
  Audio is just easier to multitask with than reading.
  - bediger4000 3mo ago
    This appears to be true for a plurality, or maybe just barely a majority of people. I don't find audio so easily multi-tasks, unless we're using different definitions. My example: I find it very difficult to do something described in an audio or video format - rewire a light switch, say. I find it way easier to have text with a diagram. I can stop and check the text at any time. I find it easier to go back to previous sentences, than to rewind an audio or video.
    - bobthepanda 3mo ago
      When i say multitask I mean that more literally. If you’re driving you can’t read, if you’re a passenger on public transit audio won’t make you motion sick, if you are cooking or cleaning you can have it on in the background, etc. Reading requires the full use of your eyes, no way around that.
      - bediger4000 3mo ago
        Fair enough - we have different definitions. If I have audio on while driving or cooking or cleaning, I can only half listen, I miss a lot. I have to be very careful with what I listen to while driving, lest it take my attention away from the road, so I only half agree with you.
Zak 3mo ago
The phones part is a red herring here. Phones work fine for reading text. Video outcompeting text as a mainstream medium for both information and entertainment is as old as television. Youtube would be a more reliable way to make money than a blog in 2026 even if it was primarily consumed on TVs or PCs.
- coldtea 3mo ago
  >The phones part is a red herring here. Phones work fine for reading text. Not as "fine working" as a book or a magazine or even a PC - not with 10 other districtions available in the form of different apps (and sending notifications), and not with that small of a screen. Is that really controversial?
  - mbonnet 3mo ago
    Yes. People don't want to go out and buy or borrow physical writing, or lug around a laptop, if they don't have to.
- heavenlyblue 3mo ago
  Your post is a red herring, some platforms simply replaced bespoke blogging websites. How would I, without any special services, consume multiple blogs today? It's so much easier with instagram/social media.
  - AlienRobot 3mo ago
    RSS.
    - realityfactchex 3mo ago
      Correct. It does not require a "service" to consume multiple blogs efficiently, just simply "software" (an app will do). The below RSS readers pretty much do their job and get out of the user's way. What's amazing is the sheer number of RSS readers that people choose to use; there are so many, people find ones that they personally like. On desktop: Vienna https://www.vienna-rss.com/ https://www.vienna-rss.com/ On iOS: R2SReader https://apps.apple.com/us/app/r2sreader/id1608635613 https://apps.apple.com/us/app/r2sreader/id1608635613 Of course, if one wanted to use a service (or run one oneself), for features like syncing, then that is possible too. But the basic setup remarkably simple, easy, and useful by itself IMO.
coldtea 3mo ago
>I find this study a bit weird because it doesn't really establish a baseline. If you look at "top 100" blogs in year n, I imagine that many of them will be dead in year n + 5 simply because people move on. So are we looking at the evidence of blogging going extinct, or just at the natural churn? It's still interesting to see that "top 100" hugely succesful blogs can go so much down, even if it's "natural churn". Then there's the fact that blogs in the "Top 100" are big business (money wise), often established for a decade or more, and have enough subscribers/viewers to spare. So unlikely to just be "dead" in n+5, just declining (which this tracks). >Also note that this specifically focuses on blogs designed to make money and dealing with general-interest stuff like fashion or travel. A lot of this has moved onto Instagram and TikTok as a byproduct of people using phones as their primary "content consumption" devices. So? That's an explanation for the drop. The post tracks the drop itself.

pessimizer 3mo ago

> If you look at "top 100" blogs in year n, I imagine that many of them will be dead in year n + 5 simply because people move on. This is a far more dubious hypothetical. I imagine that the top 100 of anything (that a lot of people do) that brings in income or fame will still be there in 5 years. They're the most successful, most profitable of the bunch. How many of the top 100 companies in terms of revenue do you imagine will disappear in 5 years? I'd guess around 0.0%. "People move on" is a meaningless statement. Why were there so many colon cancer deaths over the past 5 years? Well, people move on. Why do people move on? > Also note that this specifically focuses on blogs designed to make money i.e. blogging, which once brought in money, doesn't seem to as much anymore. Why?

pinkmuffinere 3mo ago
> I imagine that the top 100 of anything (that a lot of people do) that brings in income or fame will still be there in 5 years. This sort of blanket assumption is exactly what the parent is arguing against. The mortality rate of top-n things is relatively easy to measure, and should be baselined first. Then we can compare recent performance vs historical performance, and actually say if something has changed. There's no need to start with the assumption "not much changes over 5 years" -- it can be measured instead.
ijk 3mo ago
If we use the S&P 500 as a proxy for the top 500 companies, I would guess that a lot more than 0% will be gone by the end of 5 years. It's hard to find non-paywalled sources for business analysis, but from what I can find it'd be about 20%.
- socalgal2 3mo ago
  4.4% turn over per year, 22% in 5 years apparenty https://www.exchangecapital.com/blog/why-the-sp-500-isnt-what-you-think-it-is#:~:text=Change%20Is%20Constant https://www.exchangecapital.com/blog/why-the-sp-500-isnt-wha... and accelerating apparently https://blog.irvingwb.com/blog/2020/01/the-pace-of-creative-destruction-is-accelerating.html https://blog.irvingwb.com/blog/2020/01/the-pace-of-creative-...

alephnerd 3mo ago

> Also note that this specifically focuses on blogs designed to make money and dealing with general-interest stuff like fashion or travel. A lot of this has moved onto Instagram and TikTok as a byproduct of people using phones as their primary "content consumption" devices This needs to be repeated ad nauseum on HN. For most people (especially those not working in jobs which require heavy amounts of writing, analysis, and reading), text is NOT the default method with which they interact and communicate information. TikTok, IG reels, YouTube shorts, longer form YouTube content, podcasts, television, etc all feel "easier" and more "natural" for the vast majority of people.

bobthepanda 3mo ago
Audio is just easier to multitask with than reading.
- bediger4000 3mo ago
  This appears to be true for a plurality, or maybe just barely a majority of people. I don't find audio so easily multi-tasks, unless we're using different definitions. My example: I find it very difficult to do something described in an audio or video format - rewire a light switch, say. I find it way easier to have text with a diagram. I can stop and check the text at any time. I find it easier to go back to previous sentences, than to rewind an audio or video.
  - bobthepanda 3mo ago
    When i say multitask I mean that more literally. If you’re driving you can’t read, if you’re a passenger on public transit audio won’t make you motion sick, if you are cooking or cleaning you can have it on in the background, etc. Reading requires the full use of your eyes, no way around that.
    - bediger4000 3mo ago
      Fair enough - we have different definitions. If I have audio on while driving or cooking or cleaning, I can only half listen, I miss a lot. I have to be very careful with what I listen to while driving, lest it take my attention away from the road, so I only half agree with you.

Zak 3mo ago

The phones part is a red herring here. Phones work fine for reading text. Video outcompeting text as a mainstream medium for both information and entertainment is as old as television. Youtube would be a more reliable way to make money than a blog in 2026 even if it was primarily consumed on TVs or PCs.

coldtea 3mo ago
>The phones part is a red herring here. Phones work fine for reading text. Not as "fine working" as a book or a magazine or even a PC - not with 10 other districtions available in the form of different apps (and sending notifications), and not with that small of a screen. Is that really controversial?
- mbonnet 3mo ago
  Yes. People don't want to go out and buy or borrow physical writing, or lug around a laptop, if they don't have to.
heavenlyblue 3mo ago
Your post is a red herring, some platforms simply replaced bespoke blogging websites. How would I, without any special services, consume multiple blogs today? It's so much easier with instagram/social media.
- AlienRobot 3mo ago
  RSS.
  - realityfactchex 3mo ago
    Correct. It does not require a "service" to consume multiple blogs efficiently, just simply "software" (an app will do). The below RSS readers pretty much do their job and get out of the user's way. What's amazing is the sheer number of RSS readers that people choose to use; there are so many, people find ones that they personally like. On desktop: Vienna https://www.vienna-rss.com/ https://www.vienna-rss.com/ On iOS: R2SReader https://apps.apple.com/us/app/r2sreader/id1608635613 https://apps.apple.com/us/app/r2sreader/id1608635613 Of course, if one wanted to use a service (or run one oneself), for features like syncing, then that is possible too. But the basic setup remarkably simple, easy, and useful by itself IMO.

coldtea 3mo ago

>I find this study a bit weird because it doesn't really establish a baseline. If you look at "top 100" blogs in year n, I imagine that many of them will be dead in year n + 5 simply because people move on. So are we looking at the evidence of blogging going extinct, or just at the natural churn? It's still interesting to see that "top 100" hugely succesful blogs can go so much down, even if it's "natural churn". Then there's the fact that blogs in the "Top 100" are big business (money wise), often established for a decade or more, and have enough subscribers/viewers to spare. So unlikely to just be "dead" in n+5, just declining (which this tracks). >Also note that this specifically focuses on blogs designed to make money and dealing with general-interest stuff like fashion or travel. A lot of this has moved onto Instagram and TikTok as a byproduct of people using phones as their primary "content consumption" devices. So? That's an explanation for the drop. The post tracks the drop itself.